Two economic scenarios for the impact of coronavirus on the US (opinion)
4 years, 10 months ago

Two economic scenarios for the impact of coronavirus on the US (opinion)

CNN  

Editor’s Note: Gad Levanon is a vice president at The Conference Board, where he heads the Labor Markets Institute. Then, starting in May or June, if the virus-related fear subsides, the US economy could enjoy a bounce-back, as consumers resume their typical spending behavior and businesses fix their supply chains and resume production at normal capacity. If consumers and businesses resume normal economic activity by May or June, a recovery — or even a large rebound — would follow this slowdown, and the US economy would not take a major, long-lasting hit. If the coronavirus persists and spreads In the second scenario, coronavirus continues to spread and the US economy suffers deep and prolonged economic disruption that continues well beyond April. If the outbreak persists well beyond April, the number of people infected would be exponentially higher, and consumers and supply chains would not quickly recover.

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History of this topic

Opinion: ‘Unprecedented by most measures’: Calculating the astonishing economic costs of COVID
1 year, 7 months ago

Opinion: ‘Unprecedented by most measures’: Calculating the astonishing economic costs of COVID

LA Times  

The economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States will reach $14 trillion by the end of this year, our team of economists, public policy researchers and other experts estimate. We used data from the first 2½ years of the pandemic to forecast total economic losses from the pandemic over four years, from January 2020 through December 2023. …

Impending economic crisis will dwarf coronavirus crisis, says credit insurer Allianz
2 years, 2 months ago

Impending economic crisis will dwarf coronavirus crisis, says credit insurer Allianz

NL Times  

The looming economic crisis will make the coronavirus crisis look like nothing, according to credit insurer Allianz Trade. Rarely have so many negative facts come together simultaneously,” Johan Geeroms, director of risk underwriting in the Benelux for Allianz, said in a press statement. And, partly due to the 10 percent increase in the minimum wage the government announced for next …

The pandemic economy will outlast the outbreak of covid
2 years, 3 months ago

The pandemic economy will outlast the outbreak of covid

Live Mint  

We may be learning to live with covid but as the latest inflation report shows, it’s still a pandemic economy. Two-and-a-half years after the first lockdowns, the economy remains weird: It can take more than a year to a get a dishwasher, many months to get a passport, businesses are short-staffed, stores routinely run out of staples like pain reliever …

Rough second quarter, rebound in third
2 years, 6 months ago

Rough second quarter, rebound in third

China Daily  

MA XUEJING/CHINA DAILY Editor's note: While according priority to safeguarding people's lives and health, the Chinese government has always been trying to strike a balance between epidemic control and economic development. The sporadic outbreaks of the Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus since early March have disrupted the normalization of the Chinese economy, as evidenced by the data for the …

Germany is on the brink of a winter recession
3 years ago

Germany is on the brink of a winter recession

CNN  

London CNN Business — Germany is teetering on the brink of recession this winter as supply bottlenecks and a wave of new coronavirus cases hobble the economy. “Ongoing supply bottlenecks and the fourth wave of the coronavirus are noticeably slowing down the German economy,” Timo Wollmershäuser, head of forecasts at Ifo, said in a statement. “The strong post-pandemic recovery that …

Resurgence may have limited impact on economy
3 years, 4 months ago

Resurgence may have limited impact on economy

China Daily  

A medical worker administers a dose of COVID-19 vaccine for a student at a vaccination site in Nanchang, capital of East China's Jiangxi province, Aug 6, 2021. While uncertainty remains, we think the impact of the new COVID-19 infections on China's economy is likely to be limited, because more than 18 provinces have swiftly re-implemented stringent prevention and control measures …

Resurgence may have limited impact on economy
3 years, 4 months ago

Resurgence may have limited impact on economy

China Daily  

A medical worker administers a dose of COVID-19 vaccine for a student at a vaccination site in Nanchang, capital of East China's Jiangxi province, Aug 6, 2021. While uncertainty remains, we think the impact of the new COVID-19 infections on China's economy is likely to be limited, because more than 18 provinces have swiftly re-implemented stringent prevention and control measures …

Need to Raise Vaccination Pace to Lower Chances of Another Covid Wave: CEA
3 years, 7 months ago

Need to Raise Vaccination Pace to Lower Chances of Another Covid Wave: CEA

News 18  

Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian on Monday said the overall impact of the second wave of COVID-19 on the country’s economy is not likely to be large but cautioned about an uncertainty surrounding the pandemic going ahead. The Economic Survey 2020-21 released in January this year had projected GDP growth of 11 per cent during the current financial year ending …

The economic crisis is real; the picture of economic resilience is an illusion
3 years, 7 months ago

The economic crisis is real; the picture of economic resilience is an illusion

The Hindu  

As the ongoing second wave of coronavirus infections in India peaks, there is little clarity on what its economic fallout is and will be. Two assessments from official sources—one from the Reserve Bank of India, titled The State of the Economy and the other from the Ministry of Finance, titled Month Economic Report for May—seem to suggest that economic trends …

Economic impact of 2nd Covid-19 wave could worsen in coming weeks. Here's why
3 years, 8 months ago

Economic impact of 2nd Covid-19 wave could worsen in coming weeks. Here's why

India Today  

A sharp surge in daily cases during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has led to stricter lockdowns in most states. Brokerage firm Nomura recently said in a report that the pace of business activity resumption has taken a huge knock due to the mobility restrictions across Indian states. Business activity in India has started plummeting since the second …

The engine of the US economy, consumer spending, sputters again
3 years, 11 months ago

The engine of the US economy, consumer spending, sputters again

Al Jazeera  

Surging COVID-19 infections and restrictions in December slammed the brakes on the engine of the US economy – consumer spending – for the second consecutive month. Business-sapping restrictions designed to contain spiralling COVID-19 infections slammed the brakes on the engine of the United States economy in December, as consumers kept their wallets snapped shut and hunkered down at home. Consumer …

U.S. economy shrank 3.5% in 2020 but grew 4% in the last quarter
3 years, 11 months ago

U.S. economy shrank 3.5% in 2020 but grew 4% in the last quarter

LA Times  

Stuck in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy shrank in 2020 by the largest amount in 74 years but grew at a 4% annual rate in the final three months of the year. For 2020 as a whole, a year when the coronavirus inflicted the worst economic freeze since the end of World War II, the economy …

New COVID-19 lockdowns imperil global economy’s recovery
3 years, 11 months ago

New COVID-19 lockdowns imperil global economy’s recovery

Al Jazeera  

Vaccine roll-outs have been a major reason for investors’ rosy outlook, but concerns about mutant strains have tempered optimism. A major chunk of the global recovery in companies’ earnings – recovery expected in the first quarter of 2021 – is at risk of being pushed back further as coronavirus lockdowns and mobility restrictions in several countries cloud hopes of a …

Economic growth will be slower next year due to second coronavirus wave: CPB
4 years, 1 month ago

Economic growth will be slower next year due to second coronavirus wave: CPB

Dutch News  

The Dutch economy will contract 4.2% this year, slightly less than expected, the government’s macro-economic think-tank CPB said in its latest forecasts. However, the CPB said, the second coronavirus wave will mean the recovery next year will be slower than forecast earlier. Unemployment will increase to more than 6% in 2021, affecting particularly young people, employees on a flexible employment …

Economic impact of coronavirus will hit next year, experts say
4 years, 1 month ago

Economic impact of coronavirus will hit next year, experts say

Dutch News  

Despite the slight drop in the unemployment rate this week, and signs of a speedier economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis, the big hit will be felt in the second quarter of next year, according to experts. In total, 102 banking, legal and investment experts took part in a survey on the likely impact of the crisis carried out by …

Global economic bailout is running at $19.5 trillion. It will go higher
4 years, 1 month ago

Global economic bailout is running at $19.5 trillion. It will go higher

CNN  

London CNN Business — Governments and central banks have promised to shell out $19.5 trillion since the coronavirus erupted to “put a floor under the world economy,” according to the International Monetary Fund. While coronavirus vaccine candidates point to improved prospects for the global economy next year, they won’t help countries much in the immediate future. In the United States, …

Stocks Tumble As Coronavirus Cases Spike Again In U.S. And Europe
4 years, 2 months ago

Stocks Tumble As Coronavirus Cases Spike Again In U.S. And Europe

NPR  

Stocks Tumble As Coronavirus Cases Spike Again In U.S. And Europe Enlarge this image toggle caption Nam Y. Huh/AP Nam Y. Huh/AP Updated at 5 p.m. ET Stocks on Monday posted their worst day since early September amid a surge in coronavirus cases in the United States and Europe and declining optimism about another U.S. pandemic relief bill. "There continue …

A Lost Decade: Decoding the cost of Covid-19 pandemic
4 years, 2 months ago

A Lost Decade: Decoding the cost of Covid-19 pandemic

India Today  

A decade after facing the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s, the world has again stumbled upon an unprecedented economic challenge due to a microscopic virus. Citing International Labour Organisation estimates, the UNCTAD report indicated that the pandemic has put jobs of more than 500 million people in jeopardy, mainly in the developing world. In what …

How lessons from the past 40 years could show us the way out of the coronavirus recession
4 years, 2 months ago

How lessons from the past 40 years could show us the way out of the coronavirus recession

ABC  

Were you born in the past 40 years? "Temporarily, deficit spending raises demand, bringing output closer to potential, or even above potential," the paper argued. "To policymakers of the conventional view, running large deficits, the liquidity trap might thus indeed feel like a 'trap', pulling the economy back into the trap after every round of deficit spending." However, the paper …

Steady Rise in Covid-19 Cases, Spillover Effects of Lockdown to Hit India's Economic Growth, Says Report
4 years, 3 months ago

Steady Rise in Covid-19 Cases, Spillover Effects of Lockdown to Hit India's Economic Growth, Says Report

News 18  

Resurgence in Covid-19 cases is the main headwind for the global economy, and in India the steady rise in coronavirus caseloads will have an adverse impact on the country’s economic growth, says a report. Singh added that “restrained government finances, probable defaults by firms and the consequent subdued investment demand will continue to be a drag on growth.” India’s economy …

Stocks week ahead: The economic recovery hangs in the balance as winter approaches
4 years, 3 months ago

Stocks week ahead: The economic recovery hangs in the balance as winter approaches

CNN  

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. The UK government isn’t ruling out another national lockdown, though the health secretary has said it would be “the last line of defense.” Such measures would be the worst-case scenario for economies experiencing a historic expansion following a record contraction. Just take it from Federal Reserve …

World economy: What else could go wrong before 2020 is done
4 years, 4 months ago

World economy: What else could go wrong before 2020 is done

Live Mint  

The world economy’s rebound from the depths of the coronavirus crisis is fading, setting up an uncertain finish to the year. Adding 1.4 million jobs in August was “a big step in the right direction,” said Ryan Sweet, head of monetary policy research at Moody’s Analytics. But the economy needs to maintain that kind of pace, he said, and “without …

GDP data: Coronavirus pandemic may dent India's growth for years
4 years, 4 months ago

GDP data: Coronavirus pandemic may dent India's growth for years

India Today  

India is likely to post its steepest ever economic growth slump on record, just a couple of years after it earned the tag of the fastest-growing major economy in the world. The country is expected to register a sharp quarterly growth slump of 15-25 per cent - the worst since such data was first published in India in 1996 - …

Coronavirus | U.K. employment falls by biggest quarterly amount since 2009
4 years, 4 months ago

Coronavirus | U.K. employment falls by biggest quarterly amount since 2009

The Hindu  

The number of people in employment in the U.K. fell by 2,20,000 in the three months after the country was put into lockdown as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, official figures showed on Tuesday. That quarterly decline, which took the total number of people in employment to 32.92 million, is the biggest since the deep recession in 2009 in …

Japan's spending slump eases as economy reopens, coronavirus clouds outlook
4 years, 5 months ago

Japan's spending slump eases as economy reopens, coronavirus clouds outlook

India Today  

Japan's household spending fell at a much slower pace in June than in the previous month as the economy re-opened from lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic, offering some hope of a moderate recovery later this year. Household spending in June declined 1.2 per cent from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, less than a median market …

Stage 4 coronavirus restrictions in Melbourne could cost the economy $9 billion, Scott Morrison says
4 years, 5 months ago

Stage 4 coronavirus restrictions in Melbourne could cost the economy $9 billion, Scott Morrison says

ABC  

The newest measures in Victoria's harsh coronavirus restrictions could rip close to $10 billion out of the nation's economy in a matter of weeks, Prime Minister Scott Morrison says. Key points: The total cost of Victoria's lockdowns this quarter is estimated to be as high as $12 billion The total cost of Victoria's lockdowns this quarter is estimated to be …

Summertime sadness: Resurgent coronavirus dims economic recovery hopes
4 years, 5 months ago

Summertime sadness: Resurgent coronavirus dims economic recovery hopes

Live Mint  

The virus is the summer house guest from hell. If you add that all up together it’s not a pretty picture.” At the same time, as governments face new flare-ups and reimpose full or partial lockdowns, the prospects for a brisk global economic rebound later in the year have dimmed, according to economists and executives. While the virus-stricken world is …

Fed chief says coronavirus surge starting to dent U.S. economic recovery
4 years, 5 months ago

Fed chief says coronavirus surge starting to dent U.S. economic recovery

The Hindu  

The surge in U.S. coronavirus cases and the restrictions aimed at containing it have begun to weigh on the economic recovery, the head of the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, pointing to an apparent pullback by consumers and a slowdown in the rehiring of furloughed workers, particularly by small businesses. “We have seen some signs in recent weeks that the …

Fed says US economic recovery will be closely linked to course of coronavirus
4 years, 5 months ago

Fed says US economic recovery will be closely linked to course of coronavirus

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Get our free Inside Washington email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The fate of the US economy is “deeply and significantly” …

Many businesses expect to recover from coronavirus within a year
4 years, 5 months ago

Many businesses expect to recover from coronavirus within a year

NL Times  

A researcher from the University of Amsterdam has found that while many entrepreneurs believe they will recover from the current economic downturn inside of a year, business leaders in the wake of the coronavirus crisis is widely varied. Henk Volberda, Professor of Strategic Management and Innovation at the University of Amsterdam, surveyed 800 senior managers in the Netherlands, with 80 …

Rising coronavirus infections threaten US economic recovery
4 years, 5 months ago

Rising coronavirus infections threaten US economic recovery

Associated Press  

BALTIMORE — Rising coronavirus infections across dozens of states are threatening the U.S. economic recovery, forcing businesses and consumers to freeze spending and keeping the unemployment rate stubbornly high. A separate report showed that more than a million Americans sought unemployment benefits last week – a sign that companies continue to cut jobs as the virus slashes through the heavily …

Why the coronavirus crisis is another cruel economic setback for millennials
4 years, 6 months ago

Why the coronavirus crisis is another cruel economic setback for millennials

LA Times  

Nick Andersen packed up his life in Charleston, S.C., and headed south for a new job and a new start. For the last 50 years, politics ended up protecting the privileges enjoyed by “insiders.” “It’s the young who have borne the brunt of that, even before this current crisis.” Low-wage scars Definitions vary, but Pew Research considers anyone born between …

Victoria's coronavirus lockdown won't help an economy that's being held hostage by a pandemic
4 years, 6 months ago

Victoria's coronavirus lockdown won't help an economy that's being held hostage by a pandemic

ABC  

The fate of the economy, at least as far as the eye can see, has been resting on how well the authorities can control the spread of coronavirus. He says the current unemployment rate is actually more like 11.5 per cent, despite Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showing the "headline" rate is a fraction over 7 per cent. "I think …

Wall Street dips as virus fears drown out economy hopes
4 years, 6 months ago

Wall Street dips as virus fears drown out economy hopes

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Wall Street careened through all the forces that have pushed and pulled it through the week, at first rising on Friday amid hope for the economy and then falling on worries about worsening coronavirus levels in some states, all before ending with modest losses. Also exacerbating volatility was Friday’s simultaneous expiration of contracts for stock options and …

Covid-19 Is Bad. But It May Not Be the ‘Big One’
4 years, 6 months ago

Covid-19 Is Bad. But It May Not Be the ‘Big One’

Wired  

In 2005, US government health agencies were obsessed with a disease threat that was rolling across the globe: H5N1 avian flu, which had leaped from wild birds into chickens, and from there into humans, and was killing more than half of the people unlucky enough to become infected with it. In an article for the journal Foreign Affairs, Osterholm laid …

The second wave? Global markets slip on new coronavirus concerns
4 years, 6 months ago

The second wave? Global markets slip on new coronavirus concerns

Al Jazeera  

Equities and oil prices fall in Asia after new virus cases surge in China and many parts of the US. Global markets started the week on the back foot on Monday while oil prices slipped as fears of a second wave of coronavirus infections in China and a surge in cases in the United States sent investors scurrying for safe-haven …

OECD: This is the worst peacetime recession in 100 years
4 years, 7 months ago

OECD: This is the worst peacetime recession in 100 years

CNN  

London CNN Business — The global economy is plunging into the worst peacetime recession in a century, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “By the end of 2021, the loss of income exceeds that of any previous recession over the last 100 years outside wartime, with dire and long-lasting consequences for people, firms and governments,” said OECD …

A US recession began in February in the face of coronavirus
4 years, 7 months ago

A US recession began in February in the face of coronavirus

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy entered a recession in February as the coronavirus struck the nation, a group of economists declared Monday, ending the longest expansion on record. “The unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out …

Second wave of Covid-19 infections are still the biggest risk to the US economy
4 years, 7 months ago

Second wave of Covid-19 infections are still the biggest risk to the US economy

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The US economy is reopening and the labor market is bouncing back after dramatic losses during the height of the Covid-19 lockdown. The lion’s share of economists participating in the June National Association of Business Economics Outlook Survey — 87% — believe a second wave of infections could imperil a rebound and become the biggest …

Coronavirus Outbreak Updates: Delhi govt says reports on shortage of beds 'misleading'; National Capital records 1,330 new COVID-19 cases today
4 years, 7 months ago

Coronavirus Outbreak Updates: Delhi govt says reports on shortage of beds 'misleading'; National Capital records 1,330 new COVID-19 cases today

Firstpost  

11:42 PM Whatsapp Facebook Twitter Coronavirus in US Latest Updates US unemployment drops unexpectedly to a still-high 13.3% US unemployment dropped unexpectedly in May to 13.3% as reopened businesses began recalling millions of workers faster than economists had predicted, triggering a rally Friday on Wall Street and giving President Donald Trump something to boast about amid his reelection bid. And …

The coronavirus recession is like no other — and it risks becoming a chronic problem
4 years, 7 months ago

The coronavirus recession is like no other — and it risks becoming a chronic problem

ABC  

Forget what you know about recessions, this one is very different — and it may be chronic. That's not to say we're about to experience years of economic contraction or "negative growth" as economists like to say, but it's going to remain tough going for many Australians for years. This is the combination of two overbearing forces: an economy built …

June 4, 2020 coronavirus news
4 years, 7 months ago

June 4, 2020 coronavirus news

CNN  

Strict lockdowns like those instigated in China – when the coronavirus outbreak began – are better for economies than the longer, more moderate closures like the United States and many European countries have taken, a new international study suggests. “While predicting the true cost of lockdowns is not possible at this stage, our research suggests that shorter, stricter lockdowns minimize …

Coronavirus Will Leave Lasting Scars On Global Economy; Emerging Markets & Developing Economies To Be Worst Hit: World Bank
4 years, 7 months ago

Coronavirus Will Leave Lasting Scars On Global Economy; Emerging Markets & Developing Economies To Be Worst Hit: World Bank

ABP News  

New Delhi: The World Bank has said that the Coronavirus pandemic and strict lockdown measures taken to contain its transmission will leave a lasting effect on the global economy particularly the emerging market and developing economies, in its analysis of the situation. World Bank Group President David Malpass emphasised the need for comprehensive policies and indicated that 60 million people …

Coronavirus Lockdown: GDP data set to show economy grew at its slowest pace in 2 years in March quarter, says report
4 years, 7 months ago

Coronavirus Lockdown: GDP data set to show economy grew at its slowest pace in 2 years in March quarter, says report

Firstpost  

Unlike some advanced economies, India’s stimulus package has largely focussed on subsidised credit to small businesses and farmers, while direct fiscal stimulus was limited to around 1 percent of the GDP, economists said. New Delhi: Gross domestic product data out later on Friday is expected to show the economy grew at its slowest pace in at least two years in …

Govt measures to deal with coronavirus impact 'very positive', says former RBI governor Bimal Jalan
4 years, 7 months ago

Govt measures to deal with coronavirus impact 'very positive', says former RBI governor Bimal Jalan

Firstpost  

Former Reserve Bank Governor Bimal Jalan on Thursday described the initiatives taken by the government to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 as “very positive” and hoped that these would help in containing the decline in growth New Delhi: Former Reserve Bank Governor Bimal Jalan on Thursday described the initiatives taken by the government to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 as …

Coronavirus will send WA economy into a recession for 2020–21, Treasurer Ben Wyatt confirms
4 years, 7 months ago

Coronavirus will send WA economy into a recession for 2020–21, Treasurer Ben Wyatt confirms

ABC  

Western Australia's Treasury expects coronavirus to send the state's economy into recession, with a contraction of 3.1 per cent predicted in the 2020–21 financial year as the economy takes a $12 billion hit. Key points: The economy is set to grow 0.7 per cent this financial year before contracting The economy is set to grow 0.7 per cent this financial …

Economic hit from coronavirus will be limited, NDRC head says
4 years, 7 months ago

Economic hit from coronavirus will be limited, NDRC head says

China Daily  

He Lifeng, head of the National Development and Reform Commission is interviewed via video link after the opening of the third session of the 13th National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, May 22, 2020. China has the ability to cope with the various risks and challenges amid the COVID-19 outbreak, and …

US economy won’t recover fully until there’s a coronavirus vaccine, says Federal Reserve chairman
4 years, 7 months ago

US economy won’t recover fully until there’s a coronavirus vaccine, says Federal Reserve chairman

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The chairman of the …

How long will it take the US economy to recover from coronavirus?
4 years, 7 months ago

How long will it take the US economy to recover from coronavirus?

Al Jazeera  

The case is growing for a prolonged US recession. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecasting model currently sees the US economy shrinking 42.8 percent from April through June. As for the jobs market – Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell said during an interview with CBS on Sunday that the US unemployment rate could peak at 25 percent. What …

Coronavirus impact on Victorian economy to be 140 times worse than bushfires, Treasury expects
4 years, 7 months ago

Coronavirus impact on Victorian economy to be 140 times worse than bushfires, Treasury expects

ABC  

Victoria is expecting the economic damage of the coronavirus pandemic to be about 140 times worse than the impact of the bushfires on the state's bottom line. Key points: Mr Pallas said the pandemic would shrink the economy by about 14 per cent Mr Pallas said the pandemic would shrink the economy by about 14 per cent Rather than a …

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