Retail inflation eases to four-month low of 4.87%
The HinduIndia’s retail inflation pace eased to a four-month low of 4.87% in October from a tad over 5% in September, with the rise in vegetables prices easing to 2.7% from 3.4% even though overall consumer food price inflation remained virtually unchanged at 6.6%. The Reserve Bank of India, which expects inflation to average 5.6% between October and December, is unlikely to lower interest rates anytime soon especially as the food price situation remains sticky and reversed its sequential direction from a 2.2% month-on-month drop in September. If edible oils, whose prices dropped 13.7% year-on-year in October, were excluded, the overall consumer price inflation would have been as 5.6%, Mr. Sabnavis pointed out. “Inflation as per the Consumer Price Index would climb to 5.6% by December, and remain in a wide range of 4.9-5.6% thereafter for the next two quarters, before a particularly benign base effect temporarily dampens it in the second quarter of 2024-25,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating firm ICRA.