Don’t take rural demand for granted as a growth driver
4 years, 5 months ago

Don’t take rural demand for granted as a growth driver

Live Mint  

Rising covid afflictions in the hinterland are indeed worrying—not just because of the relatively poor health infrastructure there, but also the wider disruption to economic activity it portends. Two, India’s rural-focused measures such as higher spending under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, extension of concessional credit to farmers, and front-loading of payments to farmers under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme. Niti Aayog data shows that the share of agriculture in India’s rural economy was 39.2% in fiscal 2011-12, and would have come down further, with farm growth trailing non-farm growth. This begs the question: Does rural demand still have the heft to lift India’s economic boat, given dawdling urban demand—especially since large-scale remittances that typically take place from urban to rural areas have been affected? A sharp rise in cases could hard-brake rural demand, disrupt post-harvest supplies of farm produce, and worsen India’s growth-inflation mix.

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History of this topic

Himanshu: Will the budget’s proposals help revive India’s rural economy?
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Himanshu: Will the budget’s proposals help revive India’s rural economy?

Live Mint  

That the Indian economy is going through a difficult phase is no longer a matter of speculation. Still, neither did the budget offer anything new to boost agricultural incomes or worker productivity, nor did it allocate enough to revive the non-farm economy. The Centre’s plan to increase incomes and productivity in 100 backward districts is also unconvincing, given that the …

The Broadening Horizons of Rural Investment
2 months, 1 week ago

The Broadening Horizons of Rural Investment

Live Mint  

If someone suggests investing in rural opportunities, it’s natural to assume they are referring to investments in agriculture. Non-agricultural rural income is also rising, as the significant welfare schemes expenditure by the government is pegged at Rs—3.1 trillion, along with a rebound in real rural wage growth. Some other key drivers that are also adding to the positive sentiment in …

Where did India's population grow, and where did it shrink?
3 months, 4 weeks ago

Where did India's population grow, and where did it shrink?

India Today  

Over the past three decades, India’s population has experienced remarkable changes, with growth and decline playing out across the country in fine detail. Smaller towns and peri-urban regions — non-urban landscape that surrounds or is adjacent to a metropolitan area — have also grown, reflecting the spillover effects of urbanisation Urban areas have seen significant growth, with large clusters around …

Mint Explainer: How sustainable is India's rural consumption boom?
4 months, 1 week ago

Mint Explainer: How sustainable is India's rural consumption boom?

Live Mint  

India’s consumer goods giants found an unexpected saviour this past quarter: rural demand. The periodic labour force survey data show a jump in women’s participation in economic activities in rural India since the Covid-19 pandemic. The easing of labour law provisions by some states to allow women to work night shifts also contributed to raising their participation in economic activities …

Mint Explainer: How sustainable is India's rural consumption boom?
4 months, 1 week ago

Mint Explainer: How sustainable is India's rural consumption boom?

Live Mint  

India’s consumer goods giants found an unexpected saviour this past quarter: rural demand. The periodic labour force survey data show a jump in women’s participation in economic activities in rural India since the Covid-19 pandemic. The easing of labour law provisions by some states to allow women to work night shifts also contributed to raising their participation in economic activities …

India's Growth Outlook: A Beacon of Stability Despite Temporary Slowdown
5 months, 1 week ago

India's Growth Outlook: A Beacon of Stability Despite Temporary Slowdown

Deccan Chronicle  

India's growth outlook remains steady despite a temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25. The country's aggregate demand is expected to shrug off the slowdown due to the pick-up in festival demand and consumer confidence. Domestic manufacturing and services PMI have shown signs of improvement, while rural demand is expected to get a boost from the improved …

Rural-Urban Consumption Dynamics in India
9 months, 2 weeks ago

Rural-Urban Consumption Dynamics in India

Deccan Chronicle  

Over the past decade, India has witnessed a notable rise in consumption spending in both rural and urban areas, indicating a shift in economic dynamics and lifestyle choices. Furthermore, the changing food habits of the Indian populace have contributed to the evolving consumption patterns observed in both rural and urban areas. In conclusion, the equivalent rise in consumption spending in …

LS polls: Rural hardship hurts BJP
9 months, 3 weeks ago

LS polls: Rural hardship hurts BJP

Hindustan Times  

New Delhi: Faced with the police’s tear gas and rubber bullets, farmers from Punjab have been protesting outside Delhi since February, a reprisal of the uprisings of 2020 and 2021, albeit on a smaller scale. Farmers protesting against new farm laws While the Bharatiya Janata Party has dominated large swathes of India’s rural heartland in the last 10 years, discontent …

Consumption trends and monetary policy
1 year ago

Consumption trends and monetary policy

Hindustan Times  

Consumption is the mainstay of India’s aggregate demand, constituting around 60% of its Gross Domestic Product. Average monthly per capita consumption expenditure was ₹3,773 in rural India and ₹6,459 in urban India in 2022-23 as against ₹1,431 in rural India and ₹2,629 in urban India in 2011-12. At a broad category level, non-food expenditure has grown at a much higher …

Indian economy is resilient amid global slowdown: Sitharaman
1 year, 4 months ago

Indian economy is resilient amid global slowdown: Sitharaman

Hindustan Times  

The Indian economy is “remarkably resilient” amid a global slowdown because of “solid” domestic demand, moderate inflation, sustained capital expenditure and continued buoyancy in revenue collections, the finance ministry said in its monthly review on Tuesday. “Despite rising input costs, overall sentiment in the services sector remains upbeat, driven, among others, by an upswing in the tourism cum hotel industry …

Industrial growth hit 14-month high of 10.3% in August
1 year, 5 months ago

Industrial growth hit 14-month high of 10.3% in August

The Hindu  

India’s industrial output surged at a 14-month high pace of 10.3% in August, from a 6% rise in July, aided by favourable base effects from last year when production levels had contracted 0.7% and the best manufacturing performance since this April. Consumer goods’ production reflected a mixed trend, although durables’ output grew for the first time in three months, at …

How falling farm incomes impact India’s economy
2 years ago

How falling farm incomes impact India’s economy

Live Mint  

After a period of robust crop prices, farm incomes are likely to take a hit in 2023 following a glut in perishable prices and damage wreaked by unseasonal rains. In March, ready-to-harvest winter crops like wheat, chick peas and mustard were damaged by hailstorms and unseasonal rains in several states. But higher prices for rice and wheat are a result …

Rural demand recovery may drive next bout of inflation in India, say economists
2 years, 1 month ago

Rural demand recovery may drive next bout of inflation in India, say economists

India Today  

The Indian economy could see another bout of inflation as the rural demand revives and the informal sector recovers from the pandemic-lows, economists at HSBC Securities and Capital Markets said. While rural demand was weak in the early part of last year, wage growth, adjusted for inflation, has now surpassed pre-pandemic levels, HSBC's research showed. "Even if the winter crop …

Elevated inflation leads to negative growth in real rural wages: Economic Survey
2 years, 2 months ago

Elevated inflation leads to negative growth in real rural wages: Economic Survey

The Hindu  

There has been nominal increase in rural wages but when calculated against the rate of inflation, the real rural wages have had a negative growth, the Economic Survey that was tabled in Parliament on Tuesday revealed. “However, growth in real rural wages has been negative due to elevated inflation. Positive signs of recovery There are though other positive signs of …

Budget 2023: ’Rural income growth, women empowerment should be priority’
2 years, 2 months ago

Budget 2023: ’Rural income growth, women empowerment should be priority’

Live Mint  

With global geopolitical uncertainties and the slowing growth of the world economy, it is crucial to address job creation challenges and boost consumer demand in the country. The upcoming budget should be focused on rural income growth and our target should be at least 100% growth in every household income in near future. Through women's self-help groups, millions of jobs …

The rise of rural manufacturing
2 years, 3 months ago

The rise of rural manufacturing

The Hindu  

There is growing evidence to suggest that the most conspicuous trend in the manufacturing sector in India has been a shift of manufacturing activity and employment from bigger cities to smaller towns and rural areas. This study investigated the urbanisation of the Indian manufacturing sector by “combining enterprise data from formal and informal sectors and found that manufacturing plants in …

India’s population growth: Is it boon or bane?
2 years, 8 months ago

India’s population growth: Is it boon or bane?

Firstpost  

The greatest growth in population in India, higher than the national average, is taking place amongst the poorest, in the least developed states, amongst the uneducated and malnourished Of the current world population of 8 billion in 2022, India and China account for roughly 2.8 billion, on a more or less equal basis. However, the greatest growth in population in …

Data | Rural inflation peaks across States, except in Tamil Nadu and Kerala
2 years, 10 months ago

Data | Rural inflation peaks across States, except in Tamil Nadu and Kerala

The Hindu  

In April 2022, rural inflation accelerated to double digits in at least four big States — West Bengal, Telangana, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh — and was between 9% and 10% in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. Rural food inflation accelerated to over 11% in Telangana and Haryana and between 10% and 11% in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. General rural …

Explained | What’s fuelling higher inflation in rural India?
2 years, 11 months ago

Explained | What’s fuelling higher inflation in rural India?

The Hindu  

The story so far: The retail inflation rate surged to 6.95% this March — its highest level in nearly one and a half years, capping off six successive months of accelerating prices for consumers. Official data pegs rural inflation in March at 7.66%, with several States reporting even higher inflation, including West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Assam as well as …

PM Modi Says Farm Sector Needs Post-harvest Revolution; Govt Impetus on Scientific Ecosystem
3 years, 8 months ago

PM Modi Says Farm Sector Needs Post-harvest Revolution; Govt Impetus on Scientific Ecosystem

News 18  

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday said there is a need for a “post-harvest revolution” in the farm sector, which has been witnessing an increase in production. “With the ever increasing agricultural production, there is a need of post-harvest revolution and value addition,” Modi said in a message to commemorate the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development’s foundation day, …

Budget will help increase rural consumption: FMCG makers
4 years, 1 month ago

Budget will help increase rural consumption: FMCG makers

Live Mint  

The FMCG industry on Monday said a special focus on the agriculture sector in the Union Budget will help increase rural consumption and sustain growth momentum. FMCG manufacturers -- like ITC, Emami, Marico and Jyothy Labs -- said it is encouraging capital infusion in infrastructure, divestment and restructuring of allocations without impacting consumers negatively. According to ITC Chairman & Managing …

A path for the Indian economy to find its way out of the woods
4 years, 3 months ago

A path for the Indian economy to find its way out of the woods

Live Mint  

As much we would like to forget 2020, it is unlikely we will anytime soon. The rural economy accounts for almost half of India’s GDP and has done better than its urban counterpart, as reflected in the better performance of sectors with a rural footprint, such as tractors, two-wheelers, fertilizers and agrochemicals. Second, government support is tilted towards the rural …

Rural Demand Can Aid, but Not Replace Urban Demand; Agri Sector Could Drive Economic Revival: Report
4 years, 7 months ago

Rural Demand Can Aid, but Not Replace Urban Demand; Agri Sector Could Drive Economic Revival: Report

News 18  

Rural demand can contribute towards recovery in the economy but cannot be a substitute for urban demand, according to a report. While the industrial and services sectors are still struggling to recover from the adverse impact of COVID-19, the agriculture sector could become an engine for economic recovery, India Ratings and Research said in a report. "Since the share of …

Measures taken by Indian govt. will boost economic growth: SBI MD Dinesh Khara
5 years, 1 month ago

Measures taken by Indian govt. will boost economic growth: SBI MD Dinesh Khara

The Hindu  

Slowdown in the Indian economy has bottomed out and measures taken by the government in the recent budget to improve capacity to spend in rural sector, infrastructure creation and inviting foreign investments will boost growth, State Bank of India Managing Director Dinesh Khara has said. “These kinds of measures which have been taken will go a long way in terms …

Budget 2020: Govt must give priority to agriculture, empower farm sector to revive economy; don't hand out doles and sops
5 years, 2 months ago

Budget 2020: Govt must give priority to agriculture, empower farm sector to revive economy; don't hand out doles and sops

Firstpost  

In Budget 2020, it is fervently hoped that the government will focus on genuinely empowering the farm sector. For instance, while the average farmer gets only Rs 711 a month from livestock rearing, farmers in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu and other progressive states get around Rs 100 per milch cattle per day for 300 days a year. Except in the …

Vegetable prices rising, but farmers' income isn't
5 years, 3 months ago

Vegetable prices rising, but farmers' income isn't

India TV News  

The sharp rise in onion prices and consequent rise in food inflation has disturbed the math for policy makers and the budget of millions of middle and lower class Indian households. According to data by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy that farm profitability and growth has been weak across major food grains like rice, wheat, moong and tur. Data …

No festive cheer in the economy
5 years, 5 months ago

No festive cheer in the economy

Live Mint  

The Indian economy’s momentum continued to slow in September, with most indicators of domestic demand still flashing red, the latest edition of the Mint Macro Tracker shows. All four variables of the consumer economy—passenger sales growth, broadband subscriber growth, tractor sales growth and domestic air passenger growth—have been in red for eight successive months now. The production side of the …

A rural stimulus: On MGNREGA wage hike
5 years, 6 months ago

A rural stimulus: On MGNREGA wage hike

The Hindu  

The government’s statistical machinery has begun work on revising the indices that capture the trends in consumer prices experienced in rural India. But two-thirds of the dated inflation index is still driven by food prices, which may effectively end up understating the price pressures facing rural households. This depressant effect could be accentuated when low food inflation coincides with decelerating …

How Nehru led to agrarian distress and what could be the way forward for inclusive growth
6 years, 1 month ago

How Nehru led to agrarian distress and what could be the way forward for inclusive growth

Op India  

Historical backdrop and policy impact: In 1947 when Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru took over reins of Independent India, deeply influenced by Marxist-Leninist socialism, he strived to achieve India’s prosperity by creating mammoth public sector enterprises that were engaged in manufacturing steel to running forcibly nationalised airlines. Moreover, other priority areas like primary education, health provisioning, family welfare, and even rural …

Core inflation flourishes in Rural India amid growing agrarian crisis
6 years, 3 months ago

Core inflation flourishes in Rural India amid growing agrarian crisis

Live Mint  

When income is stagnant, a logical outcome could be curtailing expenditure. But rural India seems to be fine with paying higher prices for services that range from education to matinee shows. The chart above shows inflation for services and a few discretionary items has been higher in rural areas compared to urban centres. It is also clear that farm income …

Agrarian crisis clear & present danger for Indian economy
6 years, 3 months ago

Agrarian crisis clear & present danger for Indian economy

Live Mint  

India’s gross domestic product growth for the second quarter has laid bare the deepening distress in its villages. The country’s agricultural output, measured as gross value added, grew at a sedate pace of 2.8%, far slower than the 5.3% in the June quarter. Consumption demand from the rural economy also needs to hold up for the overall growth rate to …

Reduction in number of farmers will help raise farm incomes: Ramesh Chand
6 years, 5 months ago

Reduction in number of farmers will help raise farm incomes: Ramesh Chand

Live Mint  

New Delhi: Growth in farm incomes will be aided by a reduction in the number of farmers and value addition of produce, apart from rising growth in agriculture gross domestic product, according to farm sector expert and NITI Aayog member Ramesh Chand. Edited excerpts from an interview: India’s agriculture GDP growth rate has averaged 2.5% in the past four years. …

Why reports of agriculture’s demise are greatly exaggerated
6 years, 7 months ago

Why reports of agriculture’s demise are greatly exaggerated

Live Mint  

Bengaluru/New Delhi: Farmers may be looking for alternative avenues of income, but it is too soon to write off the significance of agriculture in rural India, data from the recently released Nabard All India Rural Financial Inclusion Survey shows. An initial reading of the survey findings seems to suggest that earnings from farm-related activities—cultivation and livestock rearing—contributed just 43% to …

Agricultural loan waivers, not farm income, driving rural revival: Report
6 years, 8 months ago

Agricultural loan waivers, not farm income, driving rural revival: Report

India TV News  

The green-shoots of demand growth seen in some rural pockets is driven by farm loan waivers and not likely due to real increases in rural incomes and wages, indicative that the economy is still some time away from a full-blown rural revival, says a report. According to recent Nielsen data, rural growth outpaced urban demand, rising by 13.5 per cent …

Rural distress can’t get buried in growth story
6 years, 9 months ago

Rural distress can’t get buried in growth story

Live Mint  

Data released by the Central Statistics Office last month suggested a recovery in economic growth during the fourth quarter of 2017-18, with the economy expanding by 7.7% compared to that in the first quarter, when growth was at its lowest at 5.7%. The misery is no longer about rural India growing slower than the rest of the economy; it is …

Rural income: looking beyond agriculture
6 years, 10 months ago

Rural income: looking beyond agriculture

Live Mint  

The government announced its ambitious dream of doubling farmers’ income by 2022-23 in 2015-16. Incomes of rural households need to be augmented from non-farm income sources. As a result, China’s rural non-farm sector has emerged as a major source of the high rates of economic growth in the recent past. Rural households need to be encouraged and enabled to engage …

Rural India: focus on non-agriculture sector
7 years, 2 months ago

Rural India: focus on non-agriculture sector

Live Mint  

Around two-thirds of India’s population is in rural areas and a large proportion of this population lives in abject poverty. According to the ICE 360° Household Survey conducted in 2016, of the bottom 20% of India’s income quintile, 89% live in rural areas. Apart from the agriculture sector, there needs to be increased focus on agriculture-allied sectors if we want …

Budget 2018: Will govt be able to work a miracle for hopeful consumer firms?
7 years, 2 months ago

Budget 2018: Will govt be able to work a miracle for hopeful consumer firms?

Live Mint  

Mumbai: Consumer packaged goods firms are hoping for a budget miracle that will boost rural demand and, in turn, drive earnings revival. However, the government may not have enough legroom to increase its budget expenditure allocation for rural spending because it continues to struggle to meet its fiscal deficit target, say economists. “In the 2017-18 Budget, while the target was …

Budget 2018: India can bet on agriculture, but support sectors like warehousing, cold storage need equal attention
7 years, 2 months ago

Budget 2018: India can bet on agriculture, but support sectors like warehousing, cold storage need equal attention

Firstpost  

The agriculture sector is recognised as the backbone of the Indian economy and has always received special attention in the Finance Bill. It incorporates several areas that require coverage such as food and income security, irrigation and water conservation, soil fertility, connectivity from farm to markets, infrastructure and funding, organic value chain in production, farmer security and protection including credit …

Budget for Bharat: Large investments but only a mild push to rural consumption
8 years, 1 month ago

Budget for Bharat: Large investments but only a mild push to rural consumption

Firstpost  

The real push needed is in rural spending through government investment. So when analysts at brokerage Edelweiss said in a note to clients yesterday that government’s proposed rural spending is actually down in 2017-18, it came as a bit of a surprise. GST will further speed up this shift.” Put simply, this indicates that the real push needed is in …

Demonetisation’s Devastating Impact on Rural India: Agriculture, Incomes, and Demand in Crisis
8 years, 3 months ago

Demonetisation’s Devastating Impact on Rural India: Agriculture, Incomes, and Demand in Crisis

The Hindu  

George Orwell once wrote that “in our times, political speech and writing are largely the defence of the indefensible” that takes the form of “arguments which are too brutal for most people to face”. In a village economy, 80 per cent of the people take Rs.50 and Rs.100 notes to local mandis and do trading, with hardly two to three …

Demonetisation: Economic growth to take a hit
8 years, 4 months ago

Demonetisation: Economic growth to take a hit

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: After ten days of demonetisation, the Indian economy is looking to get hit by at least 50 basis points in just this fiscal year as the rural economy comes to a standstill. The economic growth rate instead of being 7.5 per cent or 7.6 per cent will probably be closer to 7 or 7.1 per cent,” first Chief …

Why higher govt spending is crucial to contain rural distress
9 years, 4 months ago

Why higher govt spending is crucial to contain rural distress

Firstpost  

If PM Modi doesn’t act fast enough, the farm distress is likely to prove to be his Achilles heel. A survey by brokerage JM Financial argues that while the farm income has been on the decline in the rural area, non-farm income has remained flat at the best, impacting rural consumption. The report has attributed the decline in farm income …

Agriculture in crisis
9 years, 11 months ago

Agriculture in crisis

The Hindu  

ONCE AGAIN, the spectre of agrarian distress, which is unfortunately never far from the surface in much of India, is rearing its ugly head. These included the correction of spatial inequities in access to irrigation and working towards sustainable water management; bringing all cultivators, including tenant farmers, into the ambit of institutional credit; shifting policies to focus on dryland farming …

Rural India takes the lead in art of splurging
11 years, 5 months ago

Rural India takes the lead in art of splurging

Hindustan Times  

As the urban buyer slackens in her shopping spree, a lot is riding on the rural consumer. The consumer goods companies, equity investors and policymakers are now betting on rural spending to push sales in the Indian economy. Rural spending on clothes, footwear, consumer services and conveyance has The actual share of these items in rural household budgets is still …

Rural India in decline
11 years, 10 months ago

Rural India in decline

Live Mint  

There were 180 million more Indians in 2011 than a decade ago. A simple extrapolation from that chart suggests that 27 Indian states are likely to begin seeing shrinking rural populations in this decade, a monumental demographic change. Meanwhile, there is a noticeable asymmetry: Nearly half of the total rural population growth across India is accounted for by two politically …

Rising rural wages offsetting inflation pinch: RBI
12 years, 3 months ago

Rising rural wages offsetting inflation pinch: RBI

Firstpost  

Gokarn said, it’s “puzzling” to understand why the recent episodes of high inflation, particularly driven by food prices, have not evoked the kind of sharp provocation that had rocked the nation many times in the past 50-60 years. Mumbai: High inflation may not be generating the same kind of “unrest” that it used to in the past as rural wages …

In a first, rural India consumes more than urban peers
12 years, 7 months ago

In a first, rural India consumes more than urban peers

Firstpost  

CRISIL says that if this boom is to be sustained, it is critical to substitute short-term income boosters. New Delhi: For the first time since India’s economic reforms began two decades ago, consumption in rural India grew faster than in urban India. Citing preliminary data released for 2011-12 by the National Sample Survey Organisation, rural consumption per person during the …

India's agriculture boom fuels 'rural urbanization'
12 years, 10 months ago

India's agriculture boom fuels 'rural urbanization'

China Daily  

Forget what you think you know about rural India. It also has created a consumer market that makes many of India's hundreds of thousands of remote villages look a little more like cities. The investment bank Credit Suisse described that blurring of urban and rural as "the great Indian equalisation" in a recent analyst report. "In the past we used …

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