China-Taiwan tensions: China’s leaders may be watching events in Europe closely

Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has said Taiwan could “empathize” with Ukraine’s situation given its experience with “military threats and intimidation from China.” In the West, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday said “echoes” of what happens in Ukraine “will be heard in Taiwan,” while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on a trip to Australia earlier this month obliquely said “others are watching” the Western response to Russia, “even if it’s half a world away in Europe.” Concerns have been rising in recent years that a confident China under leader Xi Jinping may make a bold move to take control of Taiwan, and Beijing will likely be carefully monitoring the situation in Ukraine for signs of how Western powers respond – and just how severe those responses are. “Even though will still be watching closely to see how the world reacts to invasion and a potential redrawing of borders, which will likely factor into Beijing’s own geopolitical calculus, it is highly unlikely that Beijing is going to drastically alter its strategy towards Taiwan over Ukraine,” said Nachman, who focuses on Taiwan politics. “I don’t believe the Chinese would use force against Taiwan this year … doesn’t really want to take any risk,” said Steve Tsang, director of SOAS China Institute at the University of London, pointing to the Communist Party National Congress, due to be held in October, in which Xi is widely expected to secure a historic third term in power. The one-China principle is a universally-recognized norm governing international relations,”spokesman Wang Wenbin said, referring to Beijing’s tenet that there is only one China on either side of the Taiwan Strait.