Why the Canucks can’t tank for Connor Bedard

“I thought we were tanking,” Vancouver Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford quipped during his spirited, meaty media availability on Monday morning. CONNOR BEDARD IN OT TO SEND CANADA TO THE SEMIS 😱 🎥 @TSN_Sports | #WorldJuniorspic.twitter.com/f1loVDb3bV — The Athletic NHL January 3, 2023 Inspired by a tweet from a Canucks fan, we figured we’d best work to find an objective answer to the question: “How much can Canucks management increase their odds at landing Bedard between now and the end of the season?” Using The Athletic’s playoff odds and standings projection system we figured we’d model exactly how effective an impromptu, midseason tank might be going into the trade deadline. The all-out midseason tanking scenario, essentially, only adds a single percentage point to the Canucks’ odds of landing the generational shooter from North Vancouver relative to where the club sits today with Horvat, Kuzmenko and Schenn remaining on the roster: In terms of the club’s odds at landing Bedard, meanwhile, the realistic scenario in which the Canucks retain Kuzmenko rather than trade him, only alters the club’s odds at winning the first pick by 0.4 percent. Only two games remain for the Canucks at the tail end of a gauntlet 12-game stretch that has laid bare this club’s myriad of flaws, but even factoring in an upcoming back-to-back set Friday and Saturday with the defending Stanley Cup champions and Conner McDavid, Vancouver has one of the NHL’s softest schedules over the balance of this season — third easiest in the NHL, in fact, based on the GSVA projection model. 1: Projected Points Playoff Odds Bedard Odds Current 83 1.9% 3.5% All-out tank scenario 79 0.4% 5% Realistic scenario 80 0.6% 4.6% Playoff push scenario 83 1.6% 3.7% The differences are smaller than you’d expect because Vancouver’s exceedingly soft schedule acts as a magnet, keeping the club’s projected point totals high regardless of the club’s true talent level.