Calm before storm? What Morgan Stanley’s Ridham Desai says on market correction
2 years, 9 months ago

Calm before storm? What Morgan Stanley’s Ridham Desai says on market correction

Live Mint  

Despite a supply shock in oil, rates, currency and stocks appear to be relatively calm, said Morgan Stanley's Ridham Desai in a note, in which the brokerage has analyzed likely reasons to see if this is a calm before a storm or a new market dynamic. Historically, India's relative stock prices to emerging markets have reacted poorly to oil price increases caused by supply outages,” Desai said in the note. Therefore, the brokerage offered the following explanations: Policy certainty: India's policy environment is among the strongest in the world driving India's idiosyncratic growth story and, more importantly, likely creating a new profit cycle. High relative real policy rates: Monetary policy looks much better placed to handle the inflationary impact from an oil price rise especially when compared to history.

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History of this topic

Oil crashes over 2% on disappointing China stimulus; Brent drops below $73
1 month, 1 week ago

Oil crashes over 2% on disappointing China stimulus; Brent drops below $73

Live Mint  

Oil prices dropped around 2 per cent on Monday, November 11, after China's stimulus plan disappointed investors, Reuters reported. The report added that Brent crude futures fell by 2.48 per cent or $1.83 to $72.04 a barrel at 2:44 pm, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined by 2.71 per cent or $1.91 to $68.47 a barrel. The oil …

Markets Ahead: Inflation Data, Macro Indicators, Rupee Movements To Drive Investors In The Week
3 months, 2 weeks ago

Markets Ahead: Inflation Data, Macro Indicators, Rupee Movements To Drive Investors In The Week

ABP News  

Global trends, macro economic key indicators, and outlook adopted by the foreign investors would influence sentiments in the equity markets in the coming week, analysts noted. Elaborating on the outlook, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research, Kotak Securities, noted, “Globally, investors remain optimistic about the possibility of a rate cut by the US Fed and would keenly look forward to …

Sensex to hit 82,000 in 12 months over macro stability; global slowdown among key risks: Morgan Stanley
6 months, 1 week ago

Sensex to hit 82,000 in 12 months over macro stability; global slowdown among key risks: Morgan Stanley

Live Mint  

In a recent report, international rating agency Morgan Stanley asserted that the third term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which will end in 2029, will remain India's decade. According to the report, the policy reforms of the past decade, including flexible inflation targeting, the GST law, allowing retirement funds to invest in stocks, the bankruptcy code, RERA, and lower corporate …

Oil prices slump 4% after OPEC+ postpones output policy meeting to November 30; Brent drops to $79/bbl
1 year, 1 month ago

Oil prices slump 4% after OPEC+ postpones output policy meeting to November 30; Brent drops to $79/bbl

Live Mint  

Oil prices plunged 4 per cent on Wednesday, November 22, after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and it allies unexpectedly delayed the policy meeting on output planned for Sunday, raising questions about the future course of crude production cuts. {{^adFree}} {{/adFree}} Back home, on the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil futures due for a December 18 expiry, was last …

Can Indian market’s strong run continue? Here’s what Morgan Stanley predicts
1 year, 1 month ago

Can Indian market’s strong run continue? Here’s what Morgan Stanley predicts

Live Mint  

The strong Indian economy and rally in the market have investors questioning whether this bull run can continue. Commenting on the current account deficit, MS informed that over the past 4 quarters, India’s CAD had been staying with the comfort zone – 2.5 percent of GDP – despite a robust expansion. Any rise in oil prices tends to bring concerns …

Renewed risks: The Hindu Editorial on the RBI and how global uncertainties have compounded
1 year, 1 month ago

Renewed risks: The Hindu Editorial on the RBI and how global uncertainties have compounded

The Hindu  

On October 6, the Reserve Bank of India stuck to its 6.5% GDP growth projection for the year, with risks from geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation, volatile financial markets and an uneven monsoon, evenly balanced out by strengthening domestic demand. The RBI chief also pointed to rising U.S. bond yields, which hit a 16-year high of 5% this week, mixed data …

Crude price rise: Anand Rathi initiates coverage on ONGC, Oil India
1 year, 1 month ago

Crude price rise: Anand Rathi initiates coverage on ONGC, Oil India

Live Mint  

Though we don’t expect them to flare up to FY23 highs, recovering demand and OPEC’s supply cuts would keep crude prices high and support upstream companies ONGC and Oil India, said brokerage house Anand Rathi in a recent report. On the back of this current scenario, the brokerage has initiated coverage on upstream companies ONGC and Oil India with ‘Buys’ …

Investors flee shares on widening war fear
1 year, 2 months ago

Investors flee shares on widening war fear

Live Mint  

Investors offloaded shares Monday on concerns about the economic fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict. Though retail figures aren’t available, the sharper 1.3-1.6% fall in the Nifty Midcap 150 and the Nifty Smallcap 250 indices suggests significant selling by retail as the provisional purchase of ₹2,661.67 crore by domestic institutional investors, including mutual funds, couldn’t stave off the market fall. “From …

Explained: Why surging oil prices is bad for Indian rupee
1 year, 3 months ago

Explained: Why surging oil prices is bad for Indian rupee

India Today  

The Indian rupee could come under pressure and decline significantly in comparison to the US dollar, analysts have warned. Analysts quoted in a Reuters report fear that a combination of factors, including surging crude oil prices and a rally of the US dollar index, could lead to a significant decline in the Indian currency’s value. Oil on the boil Brent …

Eye on oil: on oil prices and India
1 year, 6 months ago

Eye on oil: on oil prices and India

The Hindu  

The world’s largest grouping of crude oil producers, commonly known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to extend ongoing production cuts into 2024 as it seeks to keep oil prices from falling amid concerns about a global economic slowdown. OPEC major and leading producer Saudi Arabia also voluntarily vowed to reduce output by an extra 1 million barrels per day in …

How will Indian market react tomorrow? Windfall tax, RBI policy, Q4 in focus
1 year, 8 months ago

How will Indian market react tomorrow? Windfall tax, RBI policy, Q4 in focus

Live Mint  

Indian markets are closed on Tuesday on the occasion of Mahavir Jayanti. But now another key factor to impact would be windfall gains tax on domestic crude oil prices. On Tuesday, oil and gas stocks will be in focus after the government trimmed windfall gains tax on domestic crude oil to nil from ₹3,500 per tonne, while halving the levy …

Indian economy likely to navigate rough global weather in 2023: Assocham
1 year, 11 months ago

Indian economy likely to navigate rough global weather in 2023: Assocham

The Hindu  

India's economy is expected to navigate rough global weather in 2023 due to resilient consumer demand, better corporate performance and abating of inflation, even as the year is likely to be full of challenges and opportunities, Assocham said on January 2. "While the global outlook seems rather tough, the Indian economy is set to stay on steady ground, helped by …

Explained | Is the economy driving with the brakes on?
2 years ago

Explained | Is the economy driving with the brakes on?

The Hindu  

The story so far: At this time last December, India’s economy was on the cusp of a fledgling recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, though the Omicron variant posed fresh speed bumps for the rebound. As JP Morgan managing director and India chief economist Sajjid Chinoy explained at a CII economic policy summit last week, 2022 was expected to see a …

Global slowdown not mirrored in India, says Finance Ministry
2 years ago

Global slowdown not mirrored in India, says Finance Ministry

The Hindu  

India’s economic momentum has been sustained well in the third quarter of 2022-23 and there is cause for cautious optimism as the slowdown in global economic activity is not mirrored in India’s performance of various high-frequency indicators, the Finance Ministry said on December 23, 2022. The downsides of India’s widening current account deficit are expected to be limited by a …

Demographic shift, domestic investors: Experts on why this is India's decade
2 years, 1 month ago

Demographic shift, domestic investors: Experts on why this is India's decade

India Today  

A report titled 'Why This Is India's Decade' looked at the trends and policies shaping the future of India's economy. READ | India likely to see muted GDP growth, high inflation over next few quarters: Experts INDIA'S CONSUMPTION STORY Speaking on the growth boom and its effects on consumption, Balasubramanian, managing director and chief executive officer of Aditya Birla Sun …

India’s currency could keep falling without failing us
2 years, 5 months ago

India’s currency could keep falling without failing us

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee has historically weakened against the US dollar, but bouts of volatility never fail to set alarm bells ringing. A ‘shock’ could take the form of sharp interest rate increases by systemically important central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, geopolitical developments, oil price volatility, or a financial crisis—all of which create a risk-off scenario, leading to …

Is there any silver lining for the markets amid current turmoil?
2 years, 6 months ago

Is there any silver lining for the markets amid current turmoil?

Business Standard  

The BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 indices rose for the first time in seven days yesterday, as markets looked to stabilise after last week’s blow. According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the MSCI India index has gained 7% in the past year whereas the MSCI emerging market index has corrected 22%. Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities says DIIs …

International oil prices in volatile mode | What this means for petrol, diesel rates
2 years, 7 months ago

International oil prices in volatile mode | What this means for petrol, diesel rates

India Today  

International oil prices were gyrating in volatile mode as economic concerns and recession fears dogged global financial markets, outweighing supply concerns and geopolitical tensions in Europe. On Wednesday, global oil prices jumped 5 per cent after Russia sanctioned 31 companies based in countries that imposed sanctions on Moscow after the Ukraine invasion. INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES Oil prices are under pressure …

Oil shocks and inflation: A story of shifting vulnerabilities
2 years, 7 months ago

Oil shocks and inflation: A story of shifting vulnerabilities

Live Mint  

The 1970s’ oil shock triggered a worldwide bout of high inflation, but subsequent shocks were absorbed without inflation in most countries until now. Although world food prices had started rising in 2002, following oil prices, Indian food inflation remained low, partly because minimum support prices rose only marginally in this period. Administered domestic fuel prices neither rose nor fell as …

India\'s GDP growth forecast cut to 7.9 per cent: Morgan Stanley
2 years, 9 months ago

India\'s GDP growth forecast cut to 7.9 per cent: Morgan Stanley

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: As higher oil prices torpedo economic recovery worldwide, Morgan Stanley has cut India's GDP forecast for the fiscal year beginning April 1 by 50 basis points to 7.9 per cent, raised retail inflation projection to 6 per cent and expects current account deficit to widen to 3 per cent of GDP. "Building in higher oil prices, we trim …

India’s trade deficit likely to stay high, current account deficit to widen: Nomura
2 years, 9 months ago

India’s trade deficit likely to stay high, current account deficit to widen: Nomura

The Hindu  

India’s trade deficit, which shot back up to $21.2 billion in February, is expected to stay elevated in coming months and the current account deficit could widen to 2.6% of GDP in 2022-23 from 1.7% of GDP this year, Nomura said in a report on March 3. “The surge in oil prices, amid a pickup in domestic demand, will significantly …

Crude above $100: How oil price shocks impacted India's economy in the past
2 years, 10 months ago

Crude above $100: How oil price shocks impacted India's economy in the past

India Today  

One of the side effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a sudden spurt in global crude prices. READ | Russia-Ukraine war: International oil prices cross $100-mark Unprecedented 252 per cent rise in crude prices between 1973 and 1974 Following the Arab-Israel conflict, Arab nations stopped supply of crude to all the countries supportive of Israel in 1973. READ | …

Investors get the jitters as geopolitical tensions rise
2 years, 10 months ago

Investors get the jitters as geopolitical tensions rise

Live Mint  

Russia-Ukraine tensions reverberated on Indian bourses, with the benchmark indices falling for the fifth straight day on Tuesday as investors stayed risk-averse. Volatile ride Oil prices hit the highest intraday level since September 2014 on Tuesday after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in Ukraine, adding to an already-tight supply scenario and pushing prices towards $100 a barrel. Rising …

Falling back on reserves to tilt the scales
3 years, 1 month ago

Falling back on reserves to tilt the scales

The Hindu  

The story so far: India on November 23 announced that it will release 5 million barrels of crude oil from strategic petroleum reserves or the stockpiles. THE GIST India has announced that it will release 5 million barrels of crude oil as part of a coordinated approach mooted by the U.S. after the oil producing OPEC+ bloc waved off suggestions …

India still vulnerable to 2013-like capital flight due to US monetary tightening, but forex reserves boost resilience
3 years, 5 months ago

India still vulnerable to 2013-like capital flight due to US monetary tightening, but forex reserves boost resilience

Live Mint  

India's $600 billion in reserves should help it fight market volatility from any U.S. monetary tightening, but analysts and traders warn a slowing economy and an expanding fiscal deficit still make it particularly vulnerable to capital flight. While India's increased currency reserves are expected to boost resilience this time -- $604 billion now compared with $270 billion in 2013 -- …

India's Oil Demand Falls 5% in February as Record-high Prices Hinder Demand Recovery
3 years, 9 months ago

India's Oil Demand Falls 5% in February as Record-high Prices Hinder Demand Recovery

News 18  

India's fuel consumption fell for the second month in a row in February to its lowest since September as record-high prices hindered demand recovery. Crude oil suppliers group OPEC's monthly oil report on Thursday forecast a 13.6 per cent jump in India's oil demand in 2021 to 4.99 million barrels per day. India's oil demand had fallen 10.54 per cent …

India urges oil producers to ease output cuts as crude prices soar
3 years, 10 months ago

India urges oil producers to ease output cuts as crude prices soar

Live Mint  

New Delhi: Petroleum minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Wednesday urged crude oil-producing nations to do a rethink on ongoing production cuts, at a time petrol and diesel are retailing at record high prices in India. The rising oil prices during the last few weeks are now threatening a fragile global economic recovery, Pradhan said. It also affects demand growth, which could …

Oil prices rise as investors look to higher demand seen in second half
3 years, 11 months ago

Oil prices rise as investors look to higher demand seen in second half

Live Mint  

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as optimism that government stimulus will eventually lift global economic growth and oil demand trumped concerns that renewed Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns globally are cooling fuel consumption. Investors are upbeat about demand in China, the world's top crude oil importer, after data released on Monday showed its refinery output rose 3% to a new record in …

Indian Stock Market Unfazed Despite Macroeconomic Concerns
6 years, 7 months ago

Indian Stock Market Unfazed Despite Macroeconomic Concerns

Live Mint  

Indian stock market shrugs off macroeconomic concerns for now, with the price of Brent crude rising and the rupee depreciating. However, some analysts are concerned about populist spending and farm loan waivers, which could impact the fiscal deficit. Despite these concerns, the Indian stock market has remained resilient, with the CNX 500 index up 7% since its lowest point in …

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