RBI’s MPC may rejig growth, inflation math
The HinduReserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das, who will outline the Monetary Policy Committee’s decisions on Friday, is expected to convey a continuation of the central bank’s hawkish stance with a pause on interest rates, but may reset growth and inflation projections for 2023-24 in view of the second quarter growth numbers and food inflation worries. The RBI had forecast an average inflation rate of 5.6% in the current quarter, based on which November and December may yet experience an almost 6% inflation rate. For the full year, the RBI had projected an average inflation rate of 5.4% and real GDP growth of 6.5%, which may need a revisit as growth in Q2 overshot its estimate of 6.5% for the quarter to touch 7.8%. Inflation forecasts may remain unchanged and, if at all there is a revision, will be upwards,” reckoned Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, who expects a status quo on rates and the policy stance in this bi-monthly review.