OPEC cuts and geopolitical tensions propel Brent crude up by over 13% in 2024; central banks face inflation challenge
Live MintBrent crude futures have surged 13.4% this year so far to $87.26 per barrel, propelled by escalating tensions in the Middle East, OPEC supply cuts, attacks on energy infrastructure between Ukraine and Russia, and increased oil demand from major consuming nations, all of which have tightened the market. Iran is the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel, which has already been a target of Western sanctions, however, if the supply is disrupted due to the ongoing war, it could cause a surge in international crude oil prices. Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal in its latest report projects that if Iran successfully enforces a complete or partial blockade of the SoH, it will lead to a substantial increase in crude oil prices, refining gross refining margins, and spot LNG prices. Challenges for central bankers As crude oil prices continue to rise and expectations of an increase in gas prices mount, major central bankers confront challenges in guiding inflation towards target levels.