Real growth vs. fake arguments: And never the twain shall meet
1 year, 3 months ago

Real growth vs. fake arguments: And never the twain shall meet

Live Mint  

After India announced its fiscal first quarter GDP growth of 7.8%, several forecasters, including credit rating agencies, raised their forecasts for economic growth in calendar year 2023 or 2023-24. When statistical authorities reported a GDP contraction of around 25% in the first quarter of 2020-21, there was nary a murmur on the credibility of Indian statistics because it had reported one of the severest contractions in the history of Indian GDP data. That data suited naysayers, and hence it was ‘credible.’ As for growth data for the first quarter of 2023-24, the charge of exaggeration would have carried some conviction had GDP growth rates always been computed based on the higher of the two figures. They have always reported GDP growth based on the income approach, whether it exceeded or fell short of the expenditure-based estimate.

History of this topic

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