Google’s GenCast AI turns spotlight on powerful new weather forecasters | Explained
The story so far: On December 4, Google DeepMind unveiled GenCast, an artificial intelligence model the company said could forecast the weather better than most existing tools as well as more days in advance. According to the Nature paper, GenCast had “greater skill than ENS on 97.2% of 1,320 targets we evaluated and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclone tracks and wind power production.” ENS refers to the ensemble forecasts generated by ECMWF, considered one of the best in NWP. This said, while GenCast’s performance suggests AI weather models will soon surpass the abilities of NWP models, both NWP and GenCast are founded on more fundamental weather data still acquired using the laws of physics. Google Research has been developing a model called NeuralGCM that combines AI and NWP models to generate deterministic forecasts, and at least two other models to predict extreme floods and to quantify forecasting uncertainties.
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