Jobs are the main factor keeping Australia's economy from recession
5 years, 7 months ago

Jobs are the main factor keeping Australia's economy from recession

ABC  

Australia's economy is hanging tough, stubbornly refusing to capitulate to recession after a world-record 28 years of growth. Even as Australia's economic growth rate dropped off the edge of a cliff mid-last year — with quarterly growth plunging from 0.9 per cent in the June quarter to 0.3 per cent in September and down further to 0.2 per cent in December — the unemployment rate fell too. The jobless rate rose to 5.1 per cent in March and 5.2 per cent in April — back to where it was in August last year. Seek's May data show job ads on its website fell 6.5 per cent compared to a year earlier, seasonally adjusted. For all the discussion of the "per capita recession", it is still a long way from the nightmare of unemployment Australia endured during its last "technical recession" in the early 1990s, when the jobless rate peaked at a record 11.2 per cent in December 1992.

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History of this topic

RBA Is More Confident on CPI, But Too Early to Declare Victory
2 weeks, 3 days ago

RBA Is More Confident on CPI, But Too Early to Declare Victory

Live Mint  

-- Australia’s central bank is more confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward target but it’s still too soon to conclude the battle is won given a recent pick-up in consumption and a still-tight labor market, minutes of the December meeting showed. The Reserve Bank’s board discussed scenarios in which future policy would be eased to boost economic growth or …

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March
4 weeks, 1 day ago

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 per cent in November, down from 4.1 per cent in October. "The only downside to Australia's remarkably strong job market is that any hope of a near-term interest rate cut is over," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist at global job site Indeed. "Today's blockbuster November employment report seemingly pushes back — yet again — …

U.S. job growth outperforms expectations as hiring resurges and unemployment drops
3 months ago

U.S. job growth outperforms expectations as hiring resurges and unemployment drops

LA Times  

A hiring sign is displayed at a grocery store in Deerfield, Ill. “The report doesn’t single-handedly change the landscape for the economic outlook, but it does provide reassurance that there’s still plenty of life in the jobs market,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors, a major accounting firm based in the Detroit area. The strong …

These numbers are the clues to the Reserve Bank's puzzle: when will interest rates go down?
3 months, 2 weeks ago

These numbers are the clues to the Reserve Bank's puzzle: when will interest rates go down?

ABC  

Perhaps no question matters more to Australians worn down by three years of relentless cost pressures: when will the Reserve Bank cut interest rates? But not too much – which is why when inflation shoots high, the Reserve Bank raises interest rates to suppress demand by making it more expensive to borrow and spend. But the Reserve Bank prefers a …

Major blow for Albo with Aussie economy growing at slowest pace in more than three decades
4 months ago

Major blow for Albo with Aussie economy growing at slowest pace in more than three decades

Daily Mail  

Australia's economy is now growing at the slowest pace since the early 1990s recession, outside of a pandemic. 'Today's national accounts data show the economy is still on life support, with growth over the past year slipping to its slowest pace since the early 1990s, outside of the pandemic,' he said. Australia is Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor government is …

Australia’s economy posts worst performance since 1992, excluding pandemic
4 months ago

Australia’s economy posts worst performance since 1992, excluding pandemic

Al Jazeera  

Australia’s economy has posted its worst performance in more than 30 years, excluding the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Australia’s gross domestic product expanded by just 0.2 percent in the April-June period and 1 percent over the last year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. Australia’s post-COVID recovery is struggling after the central bank raised interest rates …

Why headline inflation numbers are masking the confronting financial reality facing many households
5 months ago

Why headline inflation numbers are masking the confronting financial reality facing many households

ABC  

There won't be protest marches in the streets when the Reserve Bank of Australia makes its next decision on interest rates. In the lead-up to Wednesday's inflation reading for the June quarter, there was speculation that if it came in hot, above 4 per cent, a rate rise would be on the cards. In the end, the "headline" annual rate …

Economists warn unemployment rate could rise above 5 per cent, with hundreds of applications for individual jobs
5 months, 2 weeks ago

Economists warn unemployment rate could rise above 5 per cent, with hundreds of applications for individual jobs

ABC  

While the jobless rate has been slowly creeping higher, alarm bells are ringing about the potential for a big surge in unemployment. Dr Chapman warned there was a risk Australia's unemployment rate could peak above 5 per cent, which is well above current forecasts, by the end of next year. Jobless rate acceleration a matter of time The obvious question …

Unemployment edges up despite more than 50,000 extra jobs amid population and participation growth
5 months, 3 weeks ago

Unemployment edges up despite more than 50,000 extra jobs amid population and participation growth

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate has continued to edge higher, despite the creation of about 50,000, mostly full-time, jobs. "The participation rate in June was only 0.1 percentage point lower than the historical high of 67.0 per cent in November 2023," he noted. "This, along with the continued high level of job vacancies, suggests the labour market remains relatively tight, despite the …

Australia's unemployment rate declines to 4 per cent in May, presenting a 'goldilocks' scenario for Reserve Bank
6 months, 4 weeks ago

Australia's unemployment rate declines to 4 per cent in May, presenting a 'goldilocks' scenario for Reserve Bank

ABC  

Australia's headline unemployment rate was 4 per cent in May, down 0.1 percentage points from April. However, ABS data show the "trend" unemployment rate — which looks through the more volatile seasonally adjusted monthly figure — picked up slightly in May, from 3.9 per cent to 4 per cent. "At 4 per cent, the unemployment rate is spot on the …

The key ingredient for a deep Australian recession is missing, but it's not gone away
7 months ago

The key ingredient for a deep Australian recession is missing, but it's not gone away

ABC  

Australia is close to recession. It's also up more than 12 per cent in 2024, "confounding the analyst community, which overwhelmingly have 'sell' or 'underweight' calls on the big banks", according to IG's Tony Sycamore. Padley says global financial markets, including Australia's stock market, are not showing signs of any mania. Veteran economist Alan Oster says it's not actually the …

Australia's unemployment rate rises to 4.1 per cent in April
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Australia's unemployment rate rises to 4.1 per cent in April

ABC  

Australia's headline unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent in April, up 0.2 percentage points from March. "This suggests that the labour market remains tight, though less tight than late 2022 and early 2023," said Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics. "The bank will therefore be pleased that overall hours worked fell by 0.8 per cent year-on-year, the first …

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock reveals why business failures are at the highest level in a decade and Labor's new policy to address construction skills shortages
8 months ago

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock reveals why business failures are at the highest level in a decade and Labor's new policy to address construction skills shortages

Daily Mail  

Australia's most powerful central banker has suggested corporate insolvencies are at a decade-high during a building crisis because many companies couldn't cope with interest rates rising from record lows. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock has weighed into this to imply many of these businesses couldn't cope with interest rates rising from a record-low of 0.1 per cent. Reserve …

Jobs market 'incredibly tight' despite rise in unemployment
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Jobs market 'incredibly tight' despite rise in unemployment

ABC  

Australia's headline unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.8 per cent in March, after employment fell by 7,000 people and unemployment rose by 21,000 people. "Despite a small drop in employment, Australia's labour market remains incredibly tight," said Callam Pickering, APAC senior economist at global job site Indeed. "The easing in the labour market since late 2022 is most evident in …

RBA leaves door open to interest rate cuts and rises as unemployment risks rise
9 months, 3 weeks ago

RBA leaves door open to interest rate cuts and rises as unemployment risks rise

ABC  

What a difference six weeks makes. Economists and traders expect the US Federal Reserve to lead off a global round of interest rate cuts, but recent economic data suggests the RBA should beat them to it. CBA's head of Australian economics Gareth Aird points out that the RBA board made seven references to "uncertainty" in its one-page post-meeting statement, up …

Did the Reserve Bank hit the brakes too hard? Why Australia's economy is heading into reverse
10 months ago

Did the Reserve Bank hit the brakes too hard? Why Australia's economy is heading into reverse

ABC  

The softening-up process is already underway. There's now every possibility the GDP numbers could tip negative, giving the first real indication that Australia's economy is shrinking under the weight of 13 interest rate hikes in quick succession. The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.35 per cent last November, but it hasn't fully flowed through to the whole economy. Prepare …

The US didn’t just avoid a recession — it’s adding hundreds of thousands of new jobs
11 months, 1 week ago

The US didn’t just avoid a recession — it’s adding hundreds of thousands of new jobs

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The nation’s employers delivered a stunning burst of hiring to begin 2024, adding 353,000 jobs in January in the latest sign of the economy’s continuing ability to shrug off the highest interest rates in two decades. ‘’ This week, the Fed took note of the economy’s durability, with Chair Jerome Powell saying “the economy is performing well, the …

The U.S. didn’t just avoid a recession — it’s adding hundreds of thousands of new jobs
11 months, 1 week ago

The U.S. didn’t just avoid a recession — it’s adding hundreds of thousands of new jobs

LA Times  

A worker from Portland General Electric replaces a power line as crews work to restore power after a January storm in Oregon. “Today, we saw more proof, with another month of strong wage gains and employment gains of over 350,000 in January, continuing the strong growth from last year.” Business What rising immigration really means for California’s economy New data …

Will 2024 finally be a happy new year for the Australian economy?
1 year ago

Will 2024 finally be a happy new year for the Australian economy?

ABC  

When we said "happy new year" last week, for the first time in quite a while it may actually turn out to be true, at least in an economic sense. That kind of forecast has traders on the financial markets fully pricing in a Reserve Bank rate cut by September this year, on hopes that inflation will be close to …

Australia narrowly avoided recession this year — what these experts think will happen in 2024
1 year ago

Australia narrowly avoided recession this year — what these experts think will happen in 2024

ABC  

Fears that Australia would enter a technical recession during 2023 didn't eventuate. "I think the last interest rate hike in November has led to a bit of a perhaps change in expectation that maybe we haven't seen the peak in interest rates in Australia," AMP's deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said. "I'll be the first to say that we were …

Australia's economic crisis will be front and centre as 2023 ends. But whether 2024 will be more prosperous remains to be seen
1 year ago

Australia's economic crisis will be front and centre as 2023 ends. But whether 2024 will be more prosperous remains to be seen

ABC  

It's been a year, hasn't it? That inflation struggle will be front and centre as this year ends and the new year begins, keeping the Reserve Bank back in the national economic driver's seat for another year. Unemployment rises despite another surprise job creation surge Photo shows A female bartender smiles at a colleague cutting lemons as she shakes up …

Recession looming as jobs market weakens, says Bank rate-setter
1 year, 2 months ago

Recession looming as jobs market weakens, says Bank rate-setter

The Telegraph  

Ms Dhingra was speaking as economists said official data showing a slowdown in pay growth would fuel hopes the Bank of England has raised rates far enough to weaken the jobs market and ease a key driver behind inflation. Average weekly earnings in the three months to August were up 8.1pc compared with the same period last year, slowing from …

An embarrassment of riches: Why our corporate leaders are playing it cool on record profits
1 year, 4 months ago

An embarrassment of riches: Why our corporate leaders are playing it cool on record profits

ABC  

Matt Comyn did his best to play the down-at-heel corporate leader staring into the abyss. He didn't crack a smile during last Thursday's press conference, he hammered home the point that the Commonwealth Bank profit margins were being squeezed in the second half and that "profitability" was actually higher way back in 2014. CBA profit tops $10 billion Photo shows …

Economists want more unemployment. But do they care how the jobless will be treated?
1 year, 6 months ago

Economists want more unemployment. But do they care how the jobless will be treated?

ABC  

Are too many people employed right now? When "full employment" was introduced to Australia by the Curtin and Chifley Labor governments, by the 1945 White Paper on Full Employment, they created a new labour market institution to support it. The logic of market competition Now, things changed for the CES when Australia's government abandoned full employment as official policy in …

The jobs market is strong for now, but unemployment will be the last indicator of recession
1 year, 6 months ago

The jobs market is strong for now, but unemployment will be the last indicator of recession

ABC  

The latest unemployment numbers had a lot of us scratching our heads — economists, journalists, financial traders, possibly even the statisticians themselves. After more than a year of interest rate rises at the fastest pace in recent history, all while Australians hold more debt than they ever have before, employers added close to 76,000 extra staff pushing unemployment back down …

Australians feeling the sting of inflation and rising interest rates could soon face a recession — and more pain
1 year, 10 months ago

Australians feeling the sting of inflation and rising interest rates could soon face a recession — and more pain

ABC  

What happens on the other side of trouble? The National Accounts, which also measure inflation with what's called the GDP "price deflator", has the cost of living rising at 9.1 per cent. AMP senior economist Diana Mousina puts the "recession probability in the next two years as high, around 40 per cent". "That's almost half the 4.7 per cent annual …

Unemployment rate jumps from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent in January figures
1 year, 10 months ago

Unemployment rate jumps from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent in January figures

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate has increased from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent according to last month's figures, in seasonally adjusted terms. "January is the most seasonal time of the year in the Australian labour market, with people leaving jobs but also getting ready to start new jobs or return from leave," Mr Jarvis said. David Bassanese, the chief economist …

Businesses are fuelling inflation with unnecessary price hikes — and struggling Australians are paying for it
1 year, 10 months ago

Businesses are fuelling inflation with unnecessary price hikes — and struggling Australians are paying for it

ABC  

Higher prices, that is. The Reserve Bank summed this up in this week's Monetary Policy Decision: "Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures in a number of areas of the economy." "There's no doubt that corporations have taken advantage of the supply chain problems and the desperation of consumers …

Wait, layoffs and job growth? What’s going on with the economy and is recession still coming?
1 year, 11 months ago

Wait, layoffs and job growth? What’s going on with the economy and is recession still coming?

LA Times  

Only a few months ago many economists warned that a recession was not just inevitable, it was around the corner. But a funny thing happened on the way to hard times: The “Big R” for the U.S. economy now looks like it’s “Resilience,” not “Recession,” as economists at Bank of America recently put it. Instead of showing a slowdown in …

The risk of Australia entering recession has just risen
1 year, 11 months ago

The risk of Australia entering recession has just risen

ABC  

There are early signs Australia's economy is buckling under the strain of inflation and cost-of-living pressures. "As regards consumer spending specifically, a sharp curtailment due to higher interest rates and weaker house prices remains the major downside risk for the economy this year." Economists predict that despite recent drops in retail sales and house prices, the Reserve Bank will likely …

Has Australia's housing boom hit the end of the road and could it take the economy down with it?
1 year, 11 months ago

Has Australia's housing boom hit the end of the road and could it take the economy down with it?

ABC  

While Argentina may have dispatched Australia to go on and win football's World Cup, there is one kicking contest where we are undisputed world leaders – that's economic can kicking. Many fixed mortgage rates were below 2 per cent, some for terms as long as four years, and the Reserve Bank governor had said repeatedly that rates were unlikely to …

The U.S. job market is still healthy, but it's slowing down as recession fears mount
2 years ago

The U.S. job market is still healthy, but it's slowing down as recession fears mount

NPR  

The U.S. job market is still healthy, but it's slowing down as recession fears mount Enlarge this image toggle caption Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images The U.S. job market closed out 2022 on a high note. Employers added 223,000 jobs in December, capping a year in which the economy added 4.5 million jobs, more than refilling the deep hole …

Australia's economy recovered in 2022, will it crash in 2023?
2 years ago

Australia's economy recovered in 2022, will it crash in 2023?

ABC  

Despite the odds, Australia largely withstood the global economic hurdles of 2022. "I think that's going to be the big story for next year, how much further for rates, how long do they hold and how quickly do we see the pricing dynamics and inflation ultimately being consistent with 2 to 3 per cent. "I think the unemployment rate's going …

Despite high-profile layoffs, most workers likely to keep jobs if recession comes
2 years, 1 month ago

Despite high-profile layoffs, most workers likely to keep jobs if recession comes

LA Times  

The global economy is stuttering, and some of the world’s biggest names are already laying off thousands of employees. Business Fed officials signal slower pace of interest rate hikes coming ‘soon’ Since the Fed met earlier this month, economic data have shown moderate growth with some signs of slowing inflation amid a still strong labor market. Adrian Orr said the …

Deutsche Bank forecasts Australia will enter a recession in 2023, following an expected rise in unemployment
2 years, 1 month ago

Deutsche Bank forecasts Australia will enter a recession in 2023, following an expected rise in unemployment

ABC  

If investment firm Deutsche Bank's forecasts hold true, Australia will enter a recession next year. Key points: Deutsche Bank expects Australia's unemployment rate to rise by one percentage point to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2023 The RBA's unemployment forecast for the end of 2023 is much lower, at 3.7 per cent A one percentage point drop qualifies …

Reserve Bank of Australia rejects 'scorched earth' policy to tame inflation with faster interest rate rises
2 years, 2 months ago

Reserve Bank of Australia rejects 'scorched earth' policy to tame inflation with faster interest rate rises

ABC  

Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Michele Bullock has said the bank wants to hang on to as much of the employment gains made during the pandemic as it can, even as it tries to cool the economy to tame inflation. Key points: RBA deputy governor says a "scorched earth" policy of rapid interest rate hikes would crush inflation quickly …

Australia has a problem with inflation, and that likely means more interest rate hikes to come
2 years, 2 months ago

Australia has a problem with inflation, and that likely means more interest rate hikes to come

ABC  

Australia has a problem with inflation. It's a judgement call The Reserve Bank's inflation fighting job would be a heck of a lot easier if there wasn't such a time lag between cause and effect — that is, raising interest rates and seeing prices come down. But the Reserve Bank's key objective of lowering inflation back to the target range …

Reserve Bank warns Australians to brace for tough years ahead to get inflation under control
2 years, 2 months ago

Reserve Bank warns Australians to brace for tough years ahead to get inflation under control

ABC  

The Reserve Bank expects a couple of tough years for Australians, with real wages continuing to fall as inflation persists and unemployment starts to rise. Key points: RBA raises its inflation forecasts, with a peak of 8 per cent in December with the CPI still growing at 3.2 per cent at the end of 2024 Wages growth is expected to …

Slowdown or not? How the US job market walks a tight rope
2 years, 4 months ago

Slowdown or not? How the US job market walks a tight rope

Firstpost  

The unemployment rate fell to a historically low 3.5 per cent as the 22 million jobs lost due to COVID-19 returned. Job creation, on the other hand, is expected to have slowed sharply, falling to 300,000 — almost half of July’s number Washington: The number of “Help Wanted” signs may have decreased across the United States in August, but the …

Long-term unemployment is falling rapidly, and it's changing lives
2 years, 4 months ago

Long-term unemployment is falling rapidly, and it's changing lives

ABC  

The labour market hasn't been this tight in decades. In October last year, when the national unemployment rate was still 5.2 per cent, there were 183,400 people in long-term unemployment. But the unemployment rate is now 3.4 per cent, a level last seen in the early 1970s, and the number of people in long-term unemployment has dropped by 55,500. Well, …

With inflation rising and talk of a possible recession, Australia's low unemployment rate may not be cause for celebration
2 years, 5 months ago

With inflation rising and talk of a possible recession, Australia's low unemployment rate may not be cause for celebration

ABC  

Have you ever had the "tap on the shoulder"? So why raise this idea when this week Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.5 per cent — the lowest level since 1974? "We think a relatively large rise in unemployment over a short period of time is a more useful definition of recession for Australia than the 'accepted' definition of two …

The unemployment rate is falling quickly. This 'special formula' explains why
2 years, 10 months ago

The unemployment rate is falling quickly. This 'special formula' explains why

ABC  

Want to see the unemployment rate drop quickly? The "labour force framework" shows show how closed borders have impacted the unemployment rate, writes Gareth Hutchens. However, the unemployment rate will go down by much more when you boost employment by drawing on the pool of unemployed people. Notice how, when the pool of unemployed people shrinks to feed the growth …

Have closed borders pushed Australia’s unemployment rate down? This model shows they have
2 years, 10 months ago

Have closed borders pushed Australia’s unemployment rate down? This model shows they have

ABC  

Have our closed international borders helped to drive the unemployment rate down? We have to engage with the labour force framework Whenever we talk about the "unemployment rate", we must engage with the labour force framework that produces the number. Embedded in the concept of the "working-age population" and how it's linked to the "labour force" and how the labour …

As Omicron spreads, it's bad news for the 2022 economy as COVID stirs fear — again
3 years ago

As Omicron spreads, it's bad news for the 2022 economy as COVID stirs fear — again

ABC  

When sailors wake to a red-sky morning, the adrenaline starts to build. "You know this should be boom time for Hobart, and it's much quieter than normal," Dr Jackson says. When the national mood begins to sour, it's not a bad time to announce "new" Treasury forecasts showing the economy is doing OK. Josh Frydenberg hit up the media first …

MYEFO is forecasting a long-awaited rise in wages, but it doesn't mean it will happen
3 years ago

MYEFO is forecasting a long-awaited rise in wages, but it doesn't mean it will happen

ABC  

As New York Yankees catcher and amateur philosopher Yogi Berra once noted: "It's tough making predictions, especially about the future." Almost two years on from that fateful night — which preceded a global pandemic, the worst recession in nearly a century and a $311 billion Commonwealth stimulus package — there is still no surplus in sight, with ongoing deficits adding …

Avoiding recession won't be enough to solve Australia's economic problems
3 years, 4 months ago

Avoiding recession won't be enough to solve Australia's economic problems

ABC  

Australia is not in recession. But it probably won't make much difference if the technical definition of a recession is reached or not — the nation has been in an economic malaise for a while. Australia's economy grew over June quarter Photo shows Pedestrians cross at Flinders Street Australia's economy has bounced back from the COVID recession, with national growth …

Australian economic growth better than expected as nation's GDP returns from COVID recession, but lockdowns bite
3 years, 4 months ago

Australian economic growth better than expected as nation's GDP returns from COVID recession, but lockdowns bite

ABC  

Australia's economy bounced back from the COVID recession, with national growth rising 9.6 per cent over the year to June. The nation's economy rose 0.7 per cent in the June quarter, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, compared with a 1.9 per cent increase in the first three months of the year. Impact of lockdowns will show in September …

Unemployment rate dropped early in lockdown as people gave up looking for work, data reveals
3 years, 4 months ago

Unemployment rate dropped early in lockdown as people gave up looking for work, data reveals

ABC  

Australia's official unemployment rate dropped early on in the latest round of lockdowns, as the number of people looking for work fell. Key points: Unemployment fell to 4.6 per cent last month, from 4.9 per cent in June The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since December 2008 The ABS says a huge fall in labour force participation …

Double-dip recession possible as COVID lockdowns ravage Australian economy
3 years, 5 months ago

Double-dip recession possible as COVID lockdowns ravage Australian economy

ABC  

Having escaped a "technical" recession for nearly three decades, Australia is at risk of two in the space of just over a year. EY chief economist Jo Masters believes so, noting it is "very likely that the economy will contract in the September quarter, with strict lockdowns across New South Wales, Victoria and now South Australia." AMP Capita's "base" forecast …

Australia's unemployment rate falls below 5 per cent for the first time in 10 years
3 years, 5 months ago

Australia's unemployment rate falls below 5 per cent for the first time in 10 years

ABC  

With the unemployment rate hitting its lowest level in a decade, you would expect the federal government to be celebrating loudly. Key points: Unemployment rate falls to 4.9 per cent, from 5.1 per cent It's the lowest unemployment rate in a decade The lockdowns in New South Wales will impact the jobs data in coming months But Prime Minister Scott …

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