What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost
2 years, 5 months ago

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost

Firstpost  

According to America’s National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is ‘a significant decline in economic activity’ that is widespread and lasts several months. That means not only shrinking GDP but also declining incomes, employment, industrial production and retail sales Chaotic stock markets, sky-high interest rates and the pain of inflation have left one question at the top of Americans’ minds: Are we in a recession? According to the bureau, a recession is “a significant decline in economic activity” that is widespread and lasts several months. “In terms of just the sheer amount of contraction of real activity and this rapidity the COVID contraction was the most spectacular,” said Robert Hall, chair of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, which keeps track of recessions.

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History of this topic

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely
4 months, 1 week ago

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely

Live Mint  

Not long ago recessions seemed to strike America roughly once a decade. But because the world economy, asset markets and America’s politics are all fragile, it may yet have nasty and unpredictable consequences. An American recession would land another blow on vulnerable parts of the global economy by curbing demand for their exports. But after over a decade of cheap …

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan

Hindustan Times  

US recession may have just been delayed to 2025, as per a recent note from JPMorgan's trading desk that highlighted the strength seen in ISM manufacturing activity in March that jumped over 50 for the first time since September 2022 which represents an expansion in manufacturing activity. The data ended a 16-month decline in US factory activity amid a solid …

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?
1 year ago

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?

Hindustan Times  

Wall Street is buzzing with concerns as top banking executives, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and Jane Fraser of Citigroup, testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Soaring inflation has plagued the nation, decreasing from 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in October 2023 but still exceeding the Fed's …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 2 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

A ‘rolling recession’ or a ‘richcession’ might spare the U.S. economy from a full-scale downturn
1 year, 4 months ago

A ‘rolling recession’ or a ‘richcession’ might spare the U.S. economy from a full-scale downturn

LA Times  

Customers shop for clothing at a store in Vernon Hills, Ill., in June. Despite higher interest rates, consumers keep spending, employers keep hiring and the much-anticipated recession still hasn’t arrived. Even as the Federal Reserve has sent borrowing costs sharply higher, the economy’s resilience has been on plain display: Consumers keep spending, and employers keep hiring. Business 2023 recession now …

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 5 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined …

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?
1 year, 6 months ago

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?

ABC  

Stephen Hawking, the scientific genius who solved some of the deepest secrets of our universe, summed up the fundamental problems facing modern economists. Rates and jobs part ways Not so long ago, in time before we were all sent home, the "natural rate" of unemployment was considered to be around 5 per cent. Inflation didn't immediately take off after Australia's …

UK ‘will fall into recession’ following bond market chaos
1 year, 6 months ago

UK ‘will fall into recession’ following bond market chaos

The Telegraph  

Britain will fall into recession by the end of this year or early next year, a top City investment chief has predicted, following the bond market turmoil. Luke Hickmore, investment director at asset manager Abrdn, said the "real surprise" of rising core inflation in Britain's economy would force the Bank of England into action on interest rates. Mr Hickmore told …

What is a recession? Are we experiencing one now?
1 year, 7 months ago

What is a recession? Are we experiencing one now?

ABC  

What is a recession? The documents showed that, late last year, RBA staff were discussing the likelihood of Australia's economy falling into recession this year and next if the bank kept rapidly lifting interest rates. The "Sahm Rule" tells us when the economy's in recession, and why stimulus payments should start flowing immediately, writes Gareth Hutchens. And as the RBA …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The government’s report Thursday that the economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate last quarter signaled that one of the most-anticipated recessions in recent U.S. history has yet to arrive. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The economy's direction has confounded the Fed's policymakers and …

Where’s the recession at?
1 year, 8 months ago

Where’s the recession at?

Raw Story  

If a tree doesn’t fall in a forest, you can be sure lots of economists will have predicted that a tree was absolutely going to fall. But it forged gamely ahead: “More economists think a 2023 downturn may come later than they thought.” If you constantly predict a recession, you’ll eventually be right, just like you’ll be right sometimes if …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted

LA Times  

Over the last year, the Federal Reserve has raised its key short-term rate eight times, causing many kinds of consumer and business loans, including auto loans, to become more expensive. A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 10 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The second consecutive quarter of economic growth that the government reported Thursday underscored that the nation isn’t in a recession despite high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fastest pace of interest rate hikes in four decades. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, …

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism
1 year, 11 months ago

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism

Live Mint  

Real-time indicators and surveys point to the health of consumer spending and business investment. Make UK’s survey this week showed that manufacturers’ investment plans have held up in recent months, with executives planning to pump money into new products and energy efficiency. What’s really noticeable at the moment is confidence is as bad as the beginning of lockdown, yet the …

EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?
2 years, 1 month ago

EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the July-September quarter, the government reported Thursday, underscoring that the United States is not in a recession despite distressingly high inflation and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March …

5 signs the world is headed for a recession
2 years, 2 months ago

5 signs the world is headed for a recession

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Around the world, markets are flashing warning signs that the global economy is teetering on a cliff’s edge. The dollar’s strength also creates destabilizing effects for Wall Street, as many of the S&P 500 companies do business around the world. “Companies are hanging back and waiting to see what conditions hold.” Welcome to bear territory …

If a Recession is Indeed Coming, Investing in These Stocks Could be a Safer Bet
2 years, 2 months ago

If a Recession is Indeed Coming, Investing in These Stocks Could be a Safer Bet

News 18  

The world economy has officially hit a recessionary phase. Even economist Nouriel Roubini, a noted economist who was at the forefront of accurately predicting the trajectory of the 2008 recession, foresees a lengthy and ugly recession that could last well until late next year. While India is not entirely immune to the globally looming recession, it might just stand out …

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?
2 years, 3 months ago

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve sent a sobering message Wednesday after it announced its latest big interest rate hike: It plans to keep raising rates as long as it takes to conquer the worst inflation bout in decades — even at the risk of causing a recession in the process. Given the strength of the job market — the unemployment …

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter
2 years, 4 months ago

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter

ABC  

The United States economy has unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declining, raising speculation the economy is on the cusp of a recession. Key points: Prices for groceries, petrol and other basics increased at the fastest pace since 1981 Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in …

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?
2 years, 4 months ago

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy has contracted for two straight quarters, intensifying fears that the nation is on the cusp of a recession — if not already in one — barely two years after the pandemic recession officially ended. While most economists — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell — have said they don’t think the economy is in recession, many …

What does a US recession mean for the global economy?
2 years, 4 months ago

What does a US recession mean for the global economy?

The Telegraph  

The United States has entered a recession after a surprise contraction during the second quarter of the year. It followed a 1.6pc annualised decline in the first quarter – marking two quarters of negative growth. That is a so-called technical recession, and almost anywhere in the world would likely be recorded as an official recession. The US works a little …

Yellen downplays US recession risk as economic reports loom
2 years, 4 months ago

Yellen downplays US recession risk as economic reports loom

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said the U.S. economy is slowing but pointed to healthy hiring as proof that it is not yet in recession. Yellen spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” just before a slew of economic reports will be released this week that will shed light on an economy currently besieged by rampant inflation and …

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023
2 years, 5 months ago

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023

News 18  

A report by Nomura Holdings Inc revealed many major economies will enter recessions over the next 12 months. Nomura said the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and the US will fall into recession in the research note published by Rob Subbaraman and Si Ying Toh. In the US, Nomura predicted a shallow recession but a long one …

The recession we have been dreading is about to strike
2 years, 5 months ago

The recession we have been dreading is about to strike

The Telegraph  

“We expect the economy to struggle under the weight of higher interest rates and to enter a short recessionary period at the end of the year, extending into the first quarter of 2023.” Martin Beck, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, says “the retail sector is already effectively in recession” with the damage spreading as inflation combines with …

Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why
2 years, 6 months ago

Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why

LA Times  

People pass Nordstrom Rack in downtown Los Angeles on March 15. Many other leaders of businesses, small and large, as well as workers, are bracing for harder times, with fears stoked by the Federal Reserve’s plans for more fat interest rate increases to combat high inflation. “We’re skating on the edge of recession, especially with the Fed bringing out these …

EXPLAINER: Just how high is the risk of another recession?
2 years, 6 months ago

EXPLAINER: Just how high is the risk of another recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation is at a 40-year high. That said, Farooqi cautioned, “the economy faces headwinds.” Among the signs that recession risks are rising: High inflation has proved far more entrenched and persistent than many economists — and the Fed — had expected: Consumer prices rose 8.6% last month from a year earlier, the biggest annual 12-month jump since 1981. …

EXPLAINER: Recession fears grow. But how high is the risk?
2 years, 7 months ago

EXPLAINER: Recession fears grow. But how high is the risk?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation is at a 40-year high. And when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a news conference last week, he reinforced the central bank’s determination to do whatever it might take to curb inflation, including raising interest rates so high as to weaken the economy. “Recession risks are low now but elevated in 2023 as inflation could …

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?
2 years, 7 months ago

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Around the world, warning signs of a recession are flashing. “We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists warned last month, staking out the more bearish position on Wall Street. Bank of America, in the still-grim-but-less-dire camp, said the mood in financial markets has been “recessionary.” Goldman Sachs is among the more optimistic of …

If the economy is booming, why is there also fear of recession ahead of the 2022 election?
2 years, 8 months ago

If the economy is booming, why is there also fear of recession ahead of the 2022 election?

ABC  

Put your hand up if you remember "the recession we had to have". According to Dudley, if the Fed wants to contain runaway prices — which at 8 per cent is a 40-year high — it is going to have to raise interest rates to a point that triggers a stock market rout and forces unemployment higher. On cue, St …

Is a global recession coming? In US, China risks are mounting
2 years, 8 months ago

Is a global recession coming? In US, China risks are mounting

Al Jazeera  

Ukraine war and China’s lockdowns among risks to global growth, although most economists say downturn unlikely in 2022. The war in Ukraine, Russia sanctions, China’s “zero COVID” policies, spiking inflation, and interest hikes by the United States Federal Reserve are all set to crimp growth in 2022. On Wednesday, European Council President Charles Michel told the European parliament he believed …

The recession is technically over but for wages and jobs, the recovery is a long way away
4 years ago

The recession is technically over but for wages and jobs, the recovery is a long way away

ABC  

It's a big bounce back, undeniably, but we're not out of the woods yet. The 3.3 per cent boost to Australia's economic growth from July to September is stronger than most anticipated, but keep in mind the base it's coming off: a 7 per cent fall in the prior three months, as COVID-19 health restrictions shut down large tracts of …

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