An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023
1 year, 9 months ago

An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has simultaneously declared the end of La Niña and an El Niño Watch, indicating a potential rapid shift to hot, dry weather in 2023. Key points: The last Pacific warm phase, or El Niño, developed in 2015 It has a reputation for brining drought and bushfires Experts predict there is a 50 per cent chance of it developing in winter or spring La Niña's demise was expected as ocean temperatures across the Pacific have been returning to normal for months and was already declared finished last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. However, eastern Pacific temperatures are warming so quickly that, at the current rate, the western part of the ocean will be within El Niño territory within months, prompting the BOM's quick status shift to "El Niño watch". El Niño is the name used to describe the warm phase of the Pacific when sea surface temperatures rise along the equator, but it is not a synonym for hot and dry weather in Australia.

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History of this topic

Why Australians are being warned to prepare for a very wet summer
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Why Australians are being warned to prepare for a very wet summer

Daily Mail  

Meteorologists have warned there is a strong chance of La Niña forming ahead of summer and bringing heavy rain and flooding to Australia's east. Weatherzone's Joel Pippard said a 'clear La Niña signal' was emerging in the central Pacific Ocean in the form of a pool of cold water collecting about 150m below the surface. Meteorologists are warning there is …

Latest modelling tips fourth La Niña for Australia in five years before the end of 2024
3 months, 1 week ago

Latest modelling tips fourth La Niña for Australia in five years before the end of 2024

ABC  

There are growing signs Australia's most impactful climate driver, La Niña, will develop during the coming months. When the Pacific enters a La Niña state stronger trade winds pile up warmer water near Australia which increase cloud development and rain. Australia's 12 wettest years on record were all associated with La Niña, however most occurred during the stronger events, and …

Australia's spring weather forecast predicts above average temperatures after unseasonal winter heat
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Australia's spring weather forecast predicts above average temperatures after unseasonal winter heat

ABC  

It feels like the seasonal switch has already been flicked in the eastern states. "The temperature forecast is more confident, especially over northern Australia where there is a very high chance of above average temperatures," BOM climatologist Zhi-Weng Chua said. Most of tropical Australia and Tasmania are three to four times as likely to be "unusually warm" this spring than …

INCOIS revises outlook, forecasts La Niña from September
4 months, 3 weeks ago

INCOIS revises outlook, forecasts La Niña from September

The Hindu  

Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services has revised the outlook for the probability of La Niña weather condition in Pacific Ocean stating that its evolution is significantly highfromSeptember with a possibility to peak in November and its influence may continue till December with a probability as high as 70%. La Niña usually aids rains in monsoon La Niña, which …

El Niño makes an exit, but La Niña could bring dry conditions back to California
6 months, 1 week ago

El Niño makes an exit, but La Niña could bring dry conditions back to California

LA Times  

After a year of dominance, El Niño’s wrath has come to end — but its climate-churning counterpart, La Niña, is hot on its heels and could signal a return to dryness for California. “La Niña generally results in cooler global mean temperatures,” L’Heureux said in an email. “The tilt toward increased chances of below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures for the …

The End of El Niño Might Make the Weather Even More Extreme
6 months, 2 weeks ago

The End of El Niño Might Make the Weather Even More Extreme

Wired  

This story originally appeared on Grist and is part of the Climate Desk collaboration. The driving forces behind these projections include the alternating Pacific Ocean climate patterns known as El Niño and La Niña, which can create huge shifts in temperature and precipitation across the North and South American continents. After almost a year of El Niño, La Niña is …

Fading of El Nino to bring more rain
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Fading of El Nino to bring more rain

China Daily  

The decline of the periodic El Nino weather pattern, which brings warmer air over the Pacific Ocean, could lead to increased rainfall in large areas of China, meteorological experts said on Wednesday. We are expected to enter La Nina conditions later this summer," Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of China's National Climate Center, said at a news conference on Wednesday. Among …

Fading of El Nino to bring more rain
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Fading of El Nino to bring more rain

China Daily  

The decline of the periodic El Nino weather pattern, which brings warmer air over the Pacific Ocean, could lead to increased rainfall in large areas of China, meteorological experts said on Wednesday. We are expected to enter La Nina conditions later this summer," Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of China's National Climate Center, said at a news conference on Wednesday. Among …

A La Niña Watch has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2024
7 months, 1 week ago

A La Niña Watch has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2024

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has officially moved to La Niña "watch", reflecting an increased chance the major climate driver, which helped bring flooding to eastern Australia in 2021 and 2022, will return later this year. La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and has helped deliver significant rainfall and flooding events to Australia in the …

El Niño is on the way out after a record-breaking year of heat
7 months, 2 weeks ago

El Niño is on the way out after a record-breaking year of heat

NPR  

El Niño is on the way out after a record-breaking year of heat Enlarge this image toggle caption Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP via Getty Images Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP via Getty Images The climate pattern known as El Niño is heading for the exit, after a year when it helped drive global temperatures to new records. Sponsor Message Scientists say it's a stark warning …

Odds of La Niña rise to 80 per cent according to US weather agency
9 months, 1 week ago

Odds of La Niña rise to 80 per cent according to US weather agency

ABC  

El Niño's demise and La Niña's emergence is gaining traction, increasing the odds Australia will face another lengthy period of above average rain and cooler temperatures by the back half of 2024. "A transition from El Niño to ENSO neutral is likely by April-June 2024, with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024," stated NOAA's latest diagnostic. Looking …

US weather agency on La Niña watch but BOM says climate pattern not guaranteed
10 months, 1 week ago

US weather agency on La Niña watch but BOM says climate pattern not guaranteed

ABC  

In short: The US national weather agency has announced it is on watch for a possible La Niña later this year. Climate scientist Kim Reid says the likelihood of La Niña remains a "coin toss" What's next: Australia's Bureau of Meteorology will be looking for atmospheric and oceanic conditions that indicate La Niña is coming. La Niña, El Niño and …

Modelling indicates wet La Niña could be back in Australia for the fourth time in five years
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Modelling indicates wet La Niña could be back in Australia for the fourth time in five years

ABC  

Australia's most dominant climate driver, La Niña, has a strong chance of reappearing in 2024, shifting the odds to favour a wet year. Since 1950, La Niña years on average produced an increase in rain of 23 per cent, while El Niño years only brought a drop of 7 per cent, although south-east Australia observes a more significant dry swing …

Here's what's been pulling the strings on Australia's weather recently — and it's not just El Niño
11 months ago

Here's what's been pulling the strings on Australia's weather recently — and it's not just El Niño

ABC  

From a parched, hot September and October — on the brink of extreme drought — to flooding rains in summer, the past few months have thrown up a range of weather extremes across the country. One of the likely reasons for this enhanced summer rainfall — particularly over the south-eastern states — is a driver known as the Southern Annular …

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states
11 months, 2 weeks ago

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states

ABC  

Australian weather has always been prone to extremes, which is why the sunburnt country is known for its drought and flooding rains. "So when we know it's going to be an El Niño it changes that probability so the segment for dry conditions on that chocolate wheel is much larger, and the wet is smaller." "When we talk about dry …

Record ocean and land heat continues in autumn as El Nino intensifies
1 year, 1 month ago

Record ocean and land heat continues in autumn as El Nino intensifies

Hindustan Times  

New Delhi: Ocean and land temperatures continued their record-breaking spree in October. Sea surface and land temperatures have been at record highs for seven and five months respectively, data maintained by University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer shows. Average sea surface temperatures were significantly high in October compared to the 1982-2011 mean and higher than any year since 1981 as per …

A warm, wet El Niño winter is in store for California and much of the U.S.
1 year, 2 months ago

A warm, wet El Niño winter is in store for California and much of the U.S.

LA Times  

After a blistering summer of record heat, raging wildfires and unpredictable storms, federal scientists on Thursday said a warm, wet winter driven by El Niño is in store for California and much of the rest of the country. “The anticipated strong El Niño is the predominant climate factor driving the U.S. winter outlook this year,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of …

Ready for round two? El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole to deliver more spring heat
1 year, 3 months ago

Ready for round two? El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole to deliver more spring heat

ABC  

Weather has dominated the headlines this week – an extraordinary period of September heat, and the official declaration of two major climate drivers. It was no coincidence record temperatures coincided with the arrival of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, as Australia's extreme year-to-year weather variability is mostly the result of alternating phases of our surrounding oceans. Indeed, …

El Nino stays strong, experts fear impact on winter, 2024
1 year, 3 months ago

El Nino stays strong, experts fear impact on winter, 2024

Hindustan Times  

New Delhi: There is about a 95% chance that 2023 will be the warmest or the second-warmest year on record, a key US government agency said in a briefing on Thursday and warned that several more months — possibly stretching into 2024 — could continue the heat trend thanks to the El Nino weather pattern remaining strong. We are watching …

Understanding El Niño
1 year, 3 months ago

Understanding El Niño

ABC  

It was Peruvian fishermen, hundreds of years ago, who first noticed the unusually warm ocean currents that would appear in some years near South America, disrupting their fisheries and triggering heavy rainfall across the lands. In a normal year, trade winds blow relentlessly from east to west, pushing warm seawater and moisture-rich winds toward the west side of the Pacific, …

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño
1 year, 3 months ago

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared two major climate drivers linked to hot, dry conditions are officially underway in Australia, prompting further warnings that extreme heat could hit this spring and summer. What future El Niño summers could look like Photo shows A globe centred on Australia showing sea surface temperature patterns in red and blue with a time scale …

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster
1 year, 3 months ago

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster

The Hindu  

There is a more than 95% chance that the El Niño weather pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter from January - March 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday, bringing more extreme conditions. El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, and can provoke extreme weather phenomena from wildfires to …

How climate change could be making El Niño more extreme
1 year, 3 months ago

How climate change could be making El Niño more extreme

ABC  

El Niño in a changing climate The prospect of a possible El Niño summer, with the hot and dry conditions it's known for in Australia, can be frightening. Sea surface temperature data captured by satellites and buoys is used to determine whether the Pacific Ocean is in an El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phase. CSIRO climate and natural hazards …

From drought and bushfires to hail storms and rain, how has El Niño impacted on Australia in the past?
1 year, 3 months ago

From drought and bushfires to hail storms and rain, how has El Niño impacted on Australia in the past?

ABC  

The likely onset of the El Niño climate driver has made headlines this year, raising concerns about a dry and hot spring and summer ahead for Australia. A look back at the 27 recorded El Niño events since 1902 shows the impacts have overwhelmingly had a dry influence on eastern Australia. Monash University climate scientist Ailie Gallant said the event …

New data reveals 2023 is on track for record heat — and next year should be even hotter
1 year, 4 months ago

New data reveals 2023 is on track for record heat — and next year should be even hotter

ABC  

Earth has just passed another climate milestone. After widespread global heatwaves through June and July, 2023's average air temperature for the year so far is 14.99 degrees Celsius — just passing the previous high of 14.98C from seven years ago. Next year likely to be warmer If you look back through global temperatures since 1950, there's an obvious trend: the …

Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño 'likely in coming weeks' but still not ready to say it's underway
1 year, 4 months ago

Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño 'likely in coming weeks' but still not ready to say it's underway

ABC  

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has announced an El Niño event is "likely in the coming weeks", but has again held off declaring that it is underway, despite having satisfied its own criteria. Key points: The Bureau of Meteorology has held off declaring El Niño for another fortnight, putting it at odds with international weather agencies El Niño development is considered …

How El Niño, climate change and warming oceans could combine to supercharge the world's weather
1 year, 5 months ago

How El Niño, climate change and warming oceans could combine to supercharge the world's weather

ABC  

As the calendar year ticked over to 2023, residents of Western Australia's Kimberley region were fleeing to higher ground as heavy downpours brought water levels to astonishing heights. "There's been a collective feeling of, 'Woah, that's insane' from myself and quite a few of my colleagues this year," Monash University associate professor Ailie Gallant said. A sign of what's to …

Farmers turn to climate scientists to help prepare for future weather as El Niño looms
1 year, 5 months ago

Farmers turn to climate scientists to help prepare for future weather as El Niño looms

ABC  

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is yet to officially declare an El Niño, but food growers are already bracing for hotter, drier conditions ahead. Key points: A Queensland vegetable grower is consulting a leading climate scientist to prepare for future weather Australia remains on El Niño alert, with the US and UN weather agencies having already declared the event is underway …

We just had the world's hottest day on record, data shows — and experts say it's only going to get hotter
1 year, 5 months ago

We just had the world's hottest day on record, data shows — and experts say it's only going to get hotter

ABC  

Scientists told us it was close. Key points: Data from US scientists suggests this Tuesday was the world's hottest day on record Experts say heat records will continue to topple without urgent action on climate change Swathes of the northern hemisphere are currently experiencing heatwaves and record temperatures The average global temperature on Monday, July, 3 hit 17.01 degrees Celsius, …

An El Niño looms over Australia's stressed electricity system – and we must plan for the worst
1 year, 6 months ago

An El Niño looms over Australia's stressed electricity system – and we must plan for the worst

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology this week declared a 70 per cent chance of an El Niño developing this year. Earlier this year, the Australian Energy Market Operator warned electricity demand "may exceed supply" at times over the next decade due to factors such as weather conditions or generator outages. The Australian Energy Market Operator said the electricity system was expected …

US weather agency declares first El Niño in eight years is already underway
1 year, 6 months ago

US weather agency declares first El Niño in eight years is already underway

ABC  

Days after the Bureau of Meteorology issued an El Niño warning, its US equivalent has raised the stakes and declared the weather event is already underway. Source: NOAA The evolution to El Niño has been predicted by models since late 2022 and the event is almost guaranteed to become the first fully established Pacific warm episode in eight years. Sea …

El Nino develops, experts wary of poor monsoon spell
1 year, 6 months ago

El Nino develops, experts wary of poor monsoon spell

Hindustan Times  

El Nino conditions have emerged, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Thursday, with the weather phenomenon threatening to push the global temperature to new highs. El Nino is the warming of waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, often accompanied by a slowing or reversal of easterly trade winds Read here: Monsoon finally reaches Kerala, but onset weak Weak …

Here comes El Nino: It’s early, likely to be big, sloppy and add even more heat to a warming world
1 year, 6 months ago

Here comes El Nino: It’s early, likely to be big, sloppy and add even more heat to a warming world

Associated Press  

An early bird El Nino has officially formed, likely to be strong, warp weather worldwide and give an already warming Earth an extra kick of natural heat, meteorologists announced. “The onset of El Nino has implications for placing 2023 in the running for warmest year on record when combined with climate-warming background,” said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd. …

Here comes El Nino: It's early, likely to be big, sloppy and add even more heat to a warming world
1 year, 6 months ago

Here comes El Nino: It's early, likely to be big, sloppy and add even more heat to a warming world

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. “The onset of El Nino has implications for placing …

El Niño has officially begun. Here's what that means for the U.S.
1 year, 6 months ago

El Niño has officially begun. Here's what that means for the U.S.

NPR  

El Niño has officially begun. Here's what that means for the U.S. toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR El Niño is officially here, and that means things are about to get even hotter. It's one of the most obvious ways that El Niño, which is a natural climate pattern, exacerbates the effects of climate change, which is caused by humans burning fossil …

El Nino under way, raising fears of extreme weather patterns
1 year, 6 months ago

El Nino under way, raising fears of extreme weather patterns

Al Jazeera  

US climate agency says phenomenon, which leads to warmer temperatures, is back after three years. The El Nino climate phenomenon has arrived and is likely to yield extreme weather later this year, including above average temperatures, scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have announced. Unlike the La Nina climate pattern, which often lowers global temperatures slightly and …

El Niño predictions differ between US and Australian forecast agencies. Who is right?
1 year, 7 months ago

El Niño predictions differ between US and Australian forecast agencies. Who is right?

ABC  

The US and Australia's chief forecasting agencies are projecting vastly different odds on the development of an El Niño climate pattern this year. Whereas the BOM requires both the ocean and the atmosphere to be showing signs of change before they upgrade the likelihood to an El Niño "alert", which means a 70 per cent chance. But, for the BOM …

El Niño is likely returning, bringing danger for California and the world. ‘We need to be prepared’
1 year, 7 months ago

El Niño is likely returning, bringing danger for California and the world. ‘We need to be prepared’

LA Times  

The return of strong El Niño conditions could mean a second wet winter for California, among global impacts. El Niño is “the most important global form of climate variability, just given how much of the Earth it affects,” said Justin Mankin, a climate scientist at Dartmouth College. “The sloshing of sea surface temperatures totally reorganizes weather and climate around the …

Global warming likely to breach 1.5C threshold for first time
1 year, 7 months ago

Global warming likely to breach 1.5C threshold for first time

Al Jazeera  

World Meteorological Organization raises alarm, saying at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record. For the first time, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming until 2027, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday. How can we accept this growing number year on year and wonder …

US climate agency declares chance of El Niño now above 90 per cent in 2023
1 year, 7 months ago

US climate agency declares chance of El Niño now above 90 per cent in 2023

ABC  

Eastern Australia is facing the increased likelihood of a dry winter and spring with a United States federal agency declaring an El Niño pattern almost a foregone conclusion. The US Climate Prediction Centre has raised the chance of El Niño, the Pacific warm phase, to above 90 per cent by August and indicated a greater than 50 per cent chance …

Australian bushfires may have helped trigger La Nina
1 year, 7 months ago

Australian bushfires may have helped trigger La Nina

The Hindu  

Australia's "Black Summer" bushfire catastrophe coughed up so much smoke it may have fuelled the global onset of La Nina in 2020, according to new research published Thursday. The "Black Summer" bushfires raged across Australia's eastern seaboard from late 2019 to early 2020, razing swathes of forest, killing millions of animals, and blanketing cities in noxious smoke. A rare "triple-dip" …

El Niño is coming. Here's what that means for weather in the U.S.
1 year, 7 months ago

El Niño is coming. Here's what that means for weather in the U.S.

NPR  

El Niño is coming. Here's what that means for weather in the U.S. Enlarge this image toggle caption NOAA NOAA As hot as the Earth's weather has been in recent years, it's about to get hotter: El Niño is on the way, with warmer sea temperatures promising new weather extremes, U.S. and international forecasters say. Here's a quick guide to …

Earth in hot water? Worries over sudden ocean warming spike
1 year, 7 months ago

Earth in hot water? Worries over sudden ocean warming spike

Associated Press  

The world’s oceans have suddenly spiked much hotter and well above record levels in the last few weeks, with scientists trying to figure out what it means and whether it forecasts a surge in atmospheric warming. From early March to this week, the global average ocean sea surface temperature jumped nearly two-tenths of a degree Celsius, according to the University …

How a potential 'extreme' El Niño climate pattern would affect Australia
1 year, 7 months ago

How a potential 'extreme' El Niño climate pattern would affect Australia

ABC  

The prospect of an El Niño climate pattern is looking increasingly likely as waters off South America's west coast warm, with some models even tipping conditions for an "extreme" event to occur. The Australian model even projects ocean temperatures in the Pacific could warm to a point indicative of an "extreme" El Niño — an event that can severely disrupt …

El Niño in 2023 becoming more likely, which would result in dry, warm weather across eastern Australia
1 year, 8 months ago

El Niño in 2023 becoming more likely, which would result in dry, warm weather across eastern Australia

ABC  

The first El Niño phase of the Pacific Ocean in eight years is becoming more likely in 2023, increasing the odds of drier and warmer weather across eastern Australia. While the Bureau of Meteorology's Pacific status is currently set at El Niño Watch, defined as about a 50 per cent chance of development, one US federal government department says the …

Science-wise: After Hottest Feb, Brace for Scorching Summer, Subpar Monsoon as El Nino Returns
1 year, 9 months ago

Science-wise: After Hottest Feb, Brace for Scorching Summer, Subpar Monsoon as El Nino Returns

News 18  

The meteorologists have sounded the alarm. After the hottest February on record, it has to now brace for a sweltering summer while waiting for the monsoon rains which are likely to begin under the shadow of a dominating climate system – El Nino. But another worry that looms large is the return of El Nino – a global ocean phenomenon …

Australia can expect an El Niño weather pattern bringing extreme dry hot weather now La Niña is over
1 year, 9 months ago

Australia can expect an El Niño weather pattern bringing extreme dry hot weather now La Niña is over

ABC  

After three years of floods and record rainfall in parts of eastern and northern Australia, La Niña is on the way out. Neutral years now resemble El Niño Last century Australia's worst droughts tended to coincide with El Niño. Australia's total rainfall in neutral years has been lower than El Nino years, a reversal of last century Australia's temperatures in …

La Niña’s three-year reign across Australia finally ends, promising drier, hotter weather
1 year, 9 months ago

La Niña’s three-year reign across Australia finally ends, promising drier, hotter weather

ABC  

After three years of dominating weather patterns around the globe, La Niña has now ended. La Niña — the cool phase of the eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically brings rain and floods to Australia on the ocean's warmer western edge — has been weakening for months, as evidenced by sea surface temperatures returning to normal along equatorial areas of the …

La Niña has ended and El Niño will form during hurricane season, forecasters say
1 year, 9 months ago

La Niña has ended and El Niño will form during hurricane season, forecasters say

CNN  

CNN — After three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn pattern, La Niña has officially ended and El Niño is on the way, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday. https://t.co/5zlzaZ1aZx pic.twitter.com/dXOLGmOP7I — NWS Climate Prediction Center March 9, 2023 The prediction center also wrote its forecast now favors “El Niño forming during summer 2023 and persisting through the …

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