US has 40% chance of hitting a recession: JP Morgan chief economist
2 weeks ago

US has 40% chance of hitting a recession: JP Morgan chief economist

Hindustan Times  

Bruce Kasman, the chief economist at JP Morgan & Chase, has projected a 40% chance of a recession hitting the US. Kasman's latest projections are a leg up from the projections he made at the start of the year, when he pegged the chances of a recession in the US at 30%. Kasman also said that Trump's approach to the global economic order could undermine investor faith in US assets if it was to challenge long-established trust in US markets and institutions. He emphasized the importance of investors’ confidence in the rule of law, the integrity of information flow, and the government’s predictable involvement in the rules of the game in the U.S. Economists at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also downgraded US' GDP growth forecast to 1.7% and 1.5% respectively this year.

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History of this topic

How the US economy went from booming to a recession scare in only 20 days
Trending News
2 weeks, 2 days ago

How the US economy went from booming to a recession scare in only 20 days

CNN  

New York CNN — Just 20 days ago, the US stock market was sitting at all-time highs. On Monday, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNN there’s a “real possibility” of a recession. ‘Deer in headlights’ moment for business Kelly said the economy and market are suffering from an “uncertainty tax” caused by questions about Trump’s tariffs, federal spending cuts …

Recession ahead? Why the US economy is on shaky ground under Trump
2 weeks, 3 days ago

Recession ahead? Why the US economy is on shaky ground under Trump

Firstpost  

The US economy is facing growing recession fears as key indicators signal trouble ahead. There’s going to be no recession in America.” Lutnick also defended Trump’s aggressive trade policies, arguing that they would ultimately benefit the US economy by “unleashing American wealth across the world.” What role do tariffs and spending cuts play? Goldman Sachs recently raised its recession probability …

'I Hate To Predict Things': Trump On Whether US Will Face Recession This Year
2 weeks, 3 days ago

'I Hate To Predict Things': Trump On Whether US Will Face Recession This Year

ABP News  

US President Donald Trump declined to predict whether the country could face a recession this year amid stock market concerns about his recent tariff actions on Mexico, Canada and China. “April 2nd, it becomes all reciprocal,” Trump said, “What they charge us, we charge them.” AFP reported that when asked later on Sunday to clarify his remarks on whether there …

Trump declines to rule out US recession as tariffs spook investors
2 weeks, 3 days ago

Trump declines to rule out US recession as tariffs spook investors

Al Jazeera  

US president says economy is in a “period of transition” amid uncertainty over his trade policies. United States President Donald Trump has declined to rule out the possibility that the world’s largest economy is headed for a recession amid market concerns over his “America First” economic agenda. “It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for …

US hurtling towards recession, warns financial analyst Jesse Colombo amid uncertainty over Trump tariffs
3 weeks ago

US hurtling towards recession, warns financial analyst Jesse Colombo amid uncertainty over Trump tariffs

Firstpost  

With GDP estimates turning negative, consumer spending slowing, and market indicators pointing to a downturn, fears of a US recession in 2025 are intensifying A US-based analyst has predicted that US is heading towards a recession. Analyst Jesse Colombo, who previously predicted economic trouble in December, said the downturn was evident long before President Donald Trump’s election victory in November. …

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?
1 year, 3 months ago

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?

Hindustan Times  

Wall Street is buzzing with concerns as top banking executives, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and Jane Fraser of Citigroup, testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Soaring inflation has plagued the nation, decreasing from 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in October 2023 but still exceeding the Fed's …

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warns 7% interest rates would cripple the global economy as the Fed holds the line at 5.5%: 'You find out who is swimming naked when that tide goes out'
1 year, 6 months ago

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warns 7% interest rates would cripple the global economy as the Fed holds the line at 5.5%: 'You find out who is swimming naked when that tide goes out'

Daily Mail  

The boss of JPMorgan has warned that the worst of the interest rate pain may still be ahead for businesses and families already scarred by an historic round of hikes. JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon said that the Fed was forced to hold on another hike at its latest meeting because the effect of a jump to 5 to 7 percent …

Bank of America CEO predicts ‘slight’ US recession this year
2 years ago

Bank of America CEO predicts ‘slight’ US recession this year

Al Jazeera  

Bank of America chief executive Brian Moynihan has predicted the United States will enter a “very slight” recession later this year despite improving signs for the global economy. Speaking at a business summit in Sydney, Australia, Moynihan said the US economy is on track for a mild technical recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth — in …

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report
2 years, 8 months ago

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report

ABP News  

A latest poll of economists have hinted that the global economy is facing serious threats of a slowdown with some key economies at high risk of recession. The US inflation which is at a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent, is not expected to cool to the Fed's 2 per cent target until at least 2024. According to the Reuters …

There is a 1-in-3 chance of a recession by 2020 thanks to Trump’s trade wars
5 years, 7 months ago

There is a 1-in-3 chance of a recession by 2020 thanks to Trump’s trade wars

Salon  

Monday’s 400-point Dow slide was far from the worst single day stock market performance under President Donald Trump. As Politico reported on Tuesday, economists at large institutions are increasingly worried that a recession will hit before the 2020 presidential election — and they put the blame squarely on Trump’s trade policies. Our official model has the probability of a recession …

Trump is driving us toward a big recession: It will be ghastly — but is it deliberate?
5 years, 7 months ago

Trump is driving us toward a big recession: It will be ghastly — but is it deliberate?

Salon  

These are tough times for independent journalism. That bottomless slagheap of propaganda convinced Trump’s base that the steadily improving economy of the Barack Obama administration was “American carnage,” requiring a return to the stewardship of Republicans who had been responsible for a $1.4 trillion deficit, the collapse of the stock market, more than 800,000 jobs lost in a single month …

Is President Trump is driving the economy into a recession? Economists see warning signs
5 years, 9 months ago

Is President Trump is driving the economy into a recession? Economists see warning signs

Salon  

With President Donald Trump about to embark on yet another trade war — this time with Mexico — economists and financial analysts are surveying the economic landscape and are painting a frightening portrait of a coming recession as soon as 2020. According to a report at Politico, “Trump is edging to the brink of a two-front trade war in a …

Is America heading into another recession? Economic clouds look darker ahead
6 years, 1 month ago

Is America heading into another recession? Economic clouds look darker ahead

Salon  

While President Trump is determined to tout the strength of the economy, recent metrics suggest that a recession could be in the offing. Analysts are expecting corporate profits in the S&P 500 to drop by 1.7 percent compared to the same period last year, even though it had initially been projected to rise by 3.3 percent by the same analysts, …

There’s a 100% probability of a US recession within a year: Jim Rogers
9 years ago

There’s a 100% probability of a US recession within a year: Jim Rogers

Live Mint  

New York: Rogers Holdings chairman Jim Rogers is certain that the US economy will be in recession in the next 12 months. “It’s been seven years, eight years since we had the last recession in the US and normally, historically we have them every four to seven years for whatever reason—at least we always have,” he said. “It doesn’t have …

Chances of U.S. recession 25-30 per cent: Greenspan
14 years, 6 months ago

Chances of U.S. recession 25-30 per cent: Greenspan

The Hindu  

The chances of the U.S. economy slipping into another recession are close to 25-30 per cent, a noted American economist said. The chances that the U.S. slips into another recession are 25-30 per cent, Mr. Greenspan said. “You have to have sovereign credit for private credit in the wake of the crisis,” Mr. Greenspan said. While expressing concern over the …

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