Assembly by polls 2024: an indication of a new anti-incumbency
The HinduConstituents of the Opposition INDIA bloc have won 10 out of the 13 Assembly constituencies across seven States, where bypoll results were announced on July 13. However, the overall trend that emerges from the bypoll results in 13 Assembly seats indicates a sharp decline in the BJP/NDA’s vote shares from the Lok Sabha polls held less than two months ago, as well as improvements for the INDIA parties. With the exception of Uttarakhand’s Manglaur, which it lost narrowly to the Congress, the BJP’s vote share has declined in all the bypoll seats compared to the Lok Sabha polls. Even if the average decline of over 20 points in vote share in the four bypoll seats in West Bengal within weeks of the Lok Sabha polls are attributed to the Trinamool’s excesses, what can explain an average 20 percentage point decline in the BJP’s vote share in the three bypoll seats in Himachal Pradesh or Jalandhar West seat in Punjab? Table 2 | The table shows INDIA parties’s vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the Assembly elections.