
How do AFC wide receiver groups stack up heading into the 2024 season?
New York TimesTeams like the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans will walk into the 2024 regular season boasting some of the deepest, most effective wide receiver groups in the NFL. Here’s a glimpse at the advanced metrics from 2023 I sorted through in this study, using these categories: • Expected points added per target • EPA per reception • Catchable-pass percentage • Overall reception percentage GO DEEPER Sando: The move from each NFL team’s offseason that I liked the most AFC East 75-plus targets player EPA/Tar EPA/rec Catchable% Rec% Curtis Samuel 0.07 0.7 84.9 68.1 40-74 targets The Bills’ transition away from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis will be one of the more fascinating developments for any offense in the league. AFC North 75-plus targets player EPA/Tar EPA/rec Catchable% Rec% Zay Flowers 0.24 0.8 85.6 71.3 40-74 targets What’s not to like about the catchable pass and reception percentages for Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor? 75-plus targets 40-74 targets player EPA/Tar EPA/rec Catchable% Rec% Cedric Tillman -0.61 0.9 87.5 47.7 Amari Cooper packed quite a punch, averaging 17.4 yards per reception last season, the best rate of his career by 2.5 yards per catch. AFC South 75-plus targets 40-74 targets player EPA/Tar EPA/rec Catchable% Rec% Noah Brown 0.44 1.5 76.7 60.0 You look at these numbers and wonder, “Do the Texans really need Diggs?” For perspective, Diggs yielded 0.49 EPA per target and 1.1 EPA per reception in 2022, meaning he had a steep drop-off last season.
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