Silver linings lurk in Diwali mood for India's economy if we look beyond Chinese imports, wavering investments and bad loans
6 years, 2 months ago

Silver linings lurk in Diwali mood for India's economy if we look beyond Chinese imports, wavering investments and bad loans

Firstpost  

Chinese firecrackers may be dampened by the Supreme Court’s crackdown but there is still a big question this Diwali: Is that Ganesha you are worshipping made in China? The Rs 10-lakh-crore pile of non-performing assets in the public sector dominated banking system, and visible tensions between the Reserve Bank of India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government are only indicative of a mood in which no entrepreneur would easily commit ambitious spending plans. As Mahesh Vyas, the head of the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy says, “Although they do not show any great deterioration in investment activities, they fail to live up to the small promise held out during the past few months that a revival in the capex cycle was around the corner.” Here’s the catch: Are we holding up a cracked mirror to assess the economy based on a past obsession with manufacturing growth that required high capital expenditure in a world that has changed a lot? The parliamentary standing committee on commerce said in the last quarter that Chinese imports had “thrown a spanner in the wheel of India’s economic progress per se and industrial manufacturing in particular” with imports from China growing from 11.6 percent of all imports in 2013/14 to 16.6 percent in 2017/18 – precisely the period that should have been the promised achche din by the Narendra Modi government. Strategic consulting firm Bain & Co said in April this year that India was an Asian leader in fund-raising through private equity deals, with India-focused funds growing by 48 percent in 2017 to $5.7 billion.

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History of this topic

Inequality alert: India’s economy appears to be getting even more K-shaped
9 minutes ago

Inequality alert: India’s economy appears to be getting even more K-shaped

Live Mint  

India’s ‘K-shaped’ economy is now so entrenched that news headlines appear to be speaking about two very different countries. The growth of India’s middle-class has been slowing for several years, but anecdotal evidence, low wage growth and sustained food inflation suggest it may be becoming smaller. With India’s persistently K-shaped economy, even the silver linings come with looming clouds. In …

Indian economy to grow at 6.5-6.8 pc in FY25 on higher domestic consumption: Deloitte
2 weeks, 3 days ago

Indian economy to grow at 6.5-6.8 pc in FY25 on higher domestic consumption: Deloitte

Live Mint  

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Ajit Ranade: India needs more sectors to be reliable dollar earners
3 weeks, 2 days ago

Ajit Ranade: India needs more sectors to be reliable dollar earners

Live Mint  

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Rahul Gandhi takes aim at BJP over trade deficit: ‘Govt prioritises crony businesses’
4 weeks ago

Rahul Gandhi takes aim at BJP over trade deficit: ‘Govt prioritises crony businesses’

Hindustan Times  

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India will benefit from cooperation not by turning away from its neighbor: China Daily editorial
4 weeks, 2 days ago

India will benefit from cooperation not by turning away from its neighbor: China Daily editorial

China Daily  

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1 month ago

Govt confident of economic rebound despite global challenges, says Piyush Goyal

Live Mint  

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Mark Mobius expects smooth FII inflows despite cautious optimism on global, Indian economic trends
1 month ago

Mark Mobius expects smooth FII inflows despite cautious optimism on global, Indian economic trends

Live Mint  

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‘Indian economy cannot progress as long as…’: Rahul Gandhi hits out at Centre
Trending News
1 month, 1 week ago

‘Indian economy cannot progress as long as…’: Rahul Gandhi hits out at Centre

Hindustan Times  

Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi on Sunday said that the India's Gross Domestic Product growth rate has fallen to its lowest in two years at 5.4 percent. Rahul Gandhi on Sunday said India's GDP growth has dropped to 5.4 percent, the lowest in two years. The thing is clear - the Indian economy cannot progress as …

Under Trump, India can find a way to become manufacturing powerhouse: Fareed Zakaria
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Under Trump, India can find a way to become manufacturing powerhouse: Fareed Zakaria

India Today  

Veteran journalist and geopolitical expert Fareed Zakaria offered a comprehensive analysis of Donald Trump’s second term as US President, highlighting its global implications, particularly for India. US policy toward India for the last 25 years has been remarkably consistent and upward moving, and so I think what you're likely to see with India is the continuation of that upward moving …

Slowdown? Here’s what rich Indians are spending on
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Slowdown? Here’s what rich Indians are spending on

Live Mint  

What are large companies saying about a slowdown? Maruti-Suzuki, India’s largest carmaker, told investors last month that demand for cars remained “muted" and that it was planning higher discounts to push sales. It is also pinning hopes on sales of premium cars in rural areas, as is Hindustan Unilever, the country’s largest mass consumer packaged goods firm. E-commerce software firm …

Will US-India thrive under Trump amid 'China factor'? Fareed Zakaria explains
1 month, 4 weeks ago

Will US-India thrive under Trump amid 'China factor'? Fareed Zakaria explains

India Today  

Veteran journalist and geopolitical expert Fareed Zakaria on Monday expressed optimism about the trajectory of US-India relations under Donald Trump's regime and believed it to be a "golden opportunity" for India to end China's monopoly in manufacturing. Speaking to India Today TV's News Director Rahul Kanwal, Zakaria highlighted Trump's admiration for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and predicted continued strengthening of …

Old demand versus new: Is Indian industry investing in tomorrow’s sectors?
2 months, 1 week ago

Old demand versus new: Is Indian industry investing in tomorrow’s sectors?

Live Mint  

The festival season that is now drawing to a close began under a cloud of dark concerns about a further slowdown in consumer spending in India. The credit rating firm estimates that large Indian conglomerates are lining up $800 billion of investments over the next decade, which is triple the amount of capital spending by their business groups in the …

India-China Border Deal: A Long-Overdue Resolution
2 months, 3 weeks ago

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News 18  

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3 months, 1 week ago

How India can fix the Chinese imports problem

Live Mint  

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3 months, 3 weeks ago

Weighing in on business as usual with China

The Hindu  

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Is the spike in India’s trade deficit a worry?
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Is the spike in India’s trade deficit a worry?

The Hindu  

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India has to change its policy if it wants to attract more Chinese investment: China Daily editorial
4 months ago

India has to change its policy if it wants to attract more Chinese investment: China Daily editorial

China Daily  

There have been positive signs of improving China-India economic relations recently, as evidenced by Indian officials talking about easing restrictions on Chinese investment, and New Delhi making moves to expedite visa approvals for Chinese technicians. The seeming softening of attitude by New Delhi toward Chinese investment may have been made out of expediency, as declining foreign investment is likely to …

Is India ready to welcome Chinese capital again?
5 months, 1 week ago

Is India ready to welcome Chinese capital again?

New Indian Express  

The Economic Survey for 2023-24 sprang a surprise by making a strong pitch for Chinese investments in India, indicating a turn from the government’s anti-China stance of the past four years during which relations hit a new low. Though the Survey’s views are attributed to the chief economic advisor, the finance minister subsequently lent support, signalling a clear policy shift. …

How weak consumption growth is holding back the Indian economy's potential
5 months, 2 weeks ago

How weak consumption growth is holding back the Indian economy's potential

Hindustan Times  

Ashlesh —34-year-old former data entry operator at a small firm in Ghaziabad, and originally from the village of Ambar Nagar in Balrampur, in Uttar Pradesh — immediately wanted to make it big in life the day after he had lost his job. ‘As if there is no effect of the high growth here,” Ashlesh said, echoing concerns shared by Amit …

India has much to do to woo Chinese firms: China Daily editorial
5 months, 2 weeks ago

India has much to do to woo Chinese firms: China Daily editorial

China Daily  

Although the latest call from some Indian finance and industry officials to ease governmental restrictions on Chinese investment in India is a welcome sign, those Indian policymakers still hesitant to adopt that suggestion, citing an overreliance on China, need to know that even if New Delhi reopens its door to Chinese companies, India might not be able to recover the …

Economic Survey on China: ‘Can India fill manufacturing gaps left by Beijing?’
5 months, 3 weeks ago

Economic Survey on China: ‘Can India fill manufacturing gaps left by Beijing?’

Hindustan Times  

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India's electronics sector loses ₹1.25 lakh crore due to India-China tensions
6 months, 4 weeks ago

India's electronics sector loses ₹1.25 lakh crore due to India-China tensions

Hindustan Times  

Escalating tensions with China are said to have cost Indian electronics manufacturers $15 billion in production losses as well as 100,000 jobs in the past four years, the Economic Times reported. In submissions to various ministries, the electronics manufacturing industry said India has also lost out on a $10 billion export opportunity besides $2 billion in value addition loss, according …

India lost the manufacturing race to China. Here's why it could still succeed
7 months, 1 week ago

India lost the manufacturing race to China. Here's why it could still succeed

NPR  

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Indian economy projected to grow 6.5% in 2024: UNCTAD
8 months, 4 weeks ago

Indian economy projected to grow 6.5% in 2024: UNCTAD

The Hindu  

India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.5% in 2024, according to a report by the UN which noted that multinationals extending their manufacturing processes into the country to diversify their supply chains will have a positive impact on Indian exports. “The expansion in 2023 was driven by strong public investment outlays as well as the vitality of the services …

India’s Modi vows to boost social spending, make country into a manufacturing hub ahead of election
9 months ago

India’s Modi vows to boost social spending, make country into a manufacturing hub ahead of election

Associated Press  

NEW DELHI — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday vowed to boost social spending, develop infrastructure and make India into a global manufacturing hub as companies shift away from China, as he unveiled his Hindu nationalist party’s election strategy. Modi promised to expand social programs introduced during his party’s 10-year rule, including millions of free homes for the poor, …

India can’t achieve China’s past 8-10% growth, Morgan Stanley says
9 months, 3 weeks ago

India can’t achieve China’s past 8-10% growth, Morgan Stanley says

Hindustan Times  

India is not likely to achieve 8%-10% economic growth rates that China had over the long term, Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist said. Chetan Ahya told Bloomberg that India’s economy will likely grow steadily at 6.5%-7% over the long term but it is not going to replace China as a global manufacturing hub. A screen displays the trading information for …

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11 months, 3 weeks ago

Why India Isn’t the New China

Live Mint  

China’s economy is struggling, but another Asian giant, neighboring India, is suddenly squarely on investors’ and manufacturers’ radar. India’s age-dependency ratio—a measure of the burden of child and elderly care on households—has fallen to 47 in 2022 from 82 in 1967, according to the World Bank. Only a third of India’s female working-age population was in the labor force in …

Terms of Trade | Why is the BJP immune from the anger of a K-shaped economic recovery?
1 year ago

Terms of Trade | Why is the BJP immune from the anger of a K-shaped economic recovery?

Hindustan Times  

The first advance estimates released by the National Statistical Office expect the Indian economy to grow at 7.3% in 2023-24. Global growth rankings aside, what does this number actually mean as far as India’s political economy is concerned? Anybody who has been following India’s political economy in the past decade will agree that all three are true in some way. …

‘Breaking the Mould’ book review: An unrealistic vision of the future
1 year ago

‘Breaking the Mould’ book review: An unrealistic vision of the future

Live Mint  

Decades ago, the great trade economist Jagdish Bhagwati observed that India’s “misfortune” was to have almost too many “brilliant economists, an affliction that Far Eastern super-performers were spared”. In his latest book, Breaking The Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future, co-authored with Penn State professor Rohit Lamba, Rajan begins well by explaining why the Narendra Modi government’s subsidies to boost the …

‘Treacherous to navigate regulatory byways if you are not Adani, Ambani’: Ex-CEA Arvind Subramanian tells NYT
1 year ago

‘Treacherous to navigate regulatory byways if you are not Adani, Ambani’: Ex-CEA Arvind Subramanian tells NYT

Hindustan Times  

Economist Arvind Subramanian -- who served as the chief economic adviser of the Narendra Modi government between 2014 and 2018 -- appeared to criticise India's regulatory rules in a recent Washington Post article, claiming it could be "treacherous to navigate India’s regulatory byways" if "you are not the two A's -- Adani or Ambani". Former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian …

India's economy growing but wealth getting concentrated in a few hands: Rahul Gandhi tells Harvard students
1 year ago

India's economy growing but wealth getting concentrated in a few hands: Rahul Gandhi tells Harvard students

India TV News  

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who interacted with some students of Harvard University last week, told them that India’s economy is growing but the wealth is getting “concentrated” in a few hands. He attacked the central government claiming that his social media accounts are “fully capped” and alleged that India is not running a “free and fair democracy anymore”. Rahul links …

DC Edit | Will festivals, elections lead to India's dream growth run?
1 year, 4 months ago

DC Edit | Will festivals, elections lead to India's dream growth run?

Deccan Chronicle  

Once in every generation – which is roughly 30 or 40 years – the world finds itself on the cusp of a major change – spreading across domains of technology, geopolitics, as well as economics. In the last eight months, foreign investors pumped in $16.5 billion in the Indian stock markets – the largest such investment in Asian equities. In …

Indian economic prospects may require a more realistic analysis
1 year, 4 months ago

Indian economic prospects may require a more realistic analysis

Live Mint  

The chaos and cacophony of bazaars have a life-affirming quality. Walking through a Delhi bazaar last week, chatting with friendly shopkeepers and roadside merchants and revelling in the warm glow of traditional India, it was impossible not to feel optimistic about the country’s prospects. Recall that, in 2020-21, India’s economy, still recovering from an unwarranted demonetization, contracted by 7% as …

An uneven rebound: The Hindu Editorial on the economy
1 year, 4 months ago

An uneven rebound: The Hindu Editorial on the economy

The Hindu  

India’s economy, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product as well as the Gross Value Added, grew 7.8% in the first quarter of the year. But the months ahead could prove to be more challenging with global headwinds that have hit goods exports and manufacturing already, combining with domestic pressures from the renewed spurt in inflation and the likelihood of …

To reach its economic potential, India must abandon protectionism
1 year, 4 months ago

To reach its economic potential, India must abandon protectionism

Hindustan Times  

It is not hard to see what enthuses the many evangelists for India’s economy. India’s government is convinced that reducing imports is necessary for its security and creating manufacturing jobs, and especially hopes to reduce imports from China. In 2022 value added in manufacturing accounted for 13.3% of India’s GDP, down from 15.6% in 2015 and the lowest since 1967; …

’India is arguably at the start of a long wave boom,’ says Morgan Stanley
1 year, 5 months ago

’India is arguably at the start of a long wave boom,’ says Morgan Stanley

Live Mint  

Global brokerage Morgan Stanley has upgraded India to overweight rating. The brokerage in its report said that India has advanced from sixth to first place in its process, with relative valuations less severe than in October, and as foreign direct investment and portfolio flows are being supported by multipolar world trends, India is adding a reform and macro-stability agenda that …

Downhill driving: The Hindu Editorial on India’s overall trend of exports
1 year, 5 months ago

Downhill driving: The Hindu Editorial on India’s overall trend of exports

The Hindu  

After hitting a record $775 billion in 2022-23, India’s exports are off to a rocky start this year. While this implies the goods trade deficit may not widen as it had last year, it does not augur well for domestic growth impulses that form India’s key armour against the gathering global slowdown. Frail global demand may not just impact trade …

Will this be the Chinese economy’s ‘lost decade’? - The Hindu
1 year, 6 months ago

Will this be the Chinese economy’s ‘lost decade’? - The Hindu

The Hindu  

The annual business confidence survey released recently by the European Chamber for Business in China showed a sharp deterioration in sentiment. An Associated Press story quoted the chamber’s president as saying business confidence in China is “pretty much the lowest we have on record,” and that there was no expectation that the regulatory environment is really going to improve over …

India's GDP growth exceeds expectations, but key to 'Amrit Kaal' lies in manufacturing
1 year, 7 months ago

India's GDP growth exceeds expectations, but key to 'Amrit Kaal' lies in manufacturing

Firstpost  

The coming 24-25 years will be crucial to India in determining its stakes as a global political and economic power. The fifth-largest economy now needs to gear up to its highest potential, with the manufacturing sector being given a fair chance to show its charisma Outperforming expectations, India’s GDP grew at the rate of 6.1 per cent in the last …

India’s economy picks up speed amid global slowdown
1 year, 7 months ago

India’s economy picks up speed amid global slowdown

Al Jazeera  

With 6.1% quarterly growth, India remains one of the fastest growing emerging economies, especially as China’s recovery stumbles. India’s economic growth has accelerated to 6.1 percent in the January–to-March quarter, boosted by government and private capital spending even as private consumption remained sluggish, government data shows. The manufacturing sector, which for the past decade has accounted for just 17 percent …

India is making its mark in the world
1 year, 7 months ago

India is making its mark in the world

Hindustan Times  

India is in a rare moment of equilibrium. India’s economy is no longer at the receiving end of the global order but is in the fray of the world’s most powerful future economies, with an unmatched growth rate. The International Monetary Fund says India and China will account for 50% of the total world gross domestic product growth in 2023, …

India-US Trade Camaraderie Stronger Than Before Amid Persistent Chinese Deficit Pinch
1 year, 8 months ago

India-US Trade Camaraderie Stronger Than Before Amid Persistent Chinese Deficit Pinch

News 18  

The United States has emerged as India’s top trade partner for the second consecutive year, tying up China to the second rank. Strategic and foreign trade experts see the trade numbers as a small but significant move towards decreasing India’s reliance on Chinese imports; a move they feel was urgently required given New Delhi’s overdependence on Chinese imports, its persistent …

A resilient India, but growth pangs for China
1 year, 10 months ago

A resilient India, but growth pangs for China

The Hindu  

The Chinese government has disappointed observers with the projection of a growth target of around 5% in 2023, which is lower than that of last year and even lower than the expected GDP growth for India in 2023. Job creation and foreign investment Against such a backdrop, job security is one of the most important objectives of the sustainable growth …

India is the destination for businesses: Sitharaman
1 year, 10 months ago

India is the destination for businesses: Sitharaman

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: Noting that India is the destination for businesses, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said that the country has the right combination of factors that matter for a growing economy including a middle class, captive market with purchasing power, technology-driven public investment and products, digital infrastructure and rule of law. Sithraman said that well-trained youth, middle class giving …

India's GDP Growth: Economists Must Not Go by Face Value & Assess Data Robustly
1 year, 10 months ago

India's GDP Growth: Economists Must Not Go by Face Value & Assess Data Robustly

The Quint  

As argued before, while reviewing the macro-elements and components of growth in any statistical interpretation exercise, it’s difficult to get the full picture one needs. For example, keeping aside the base effect, the fact that private consumption demand is still woefully low, indicates how much of the low-middle income and middle-income class in India is ‘consuming less’ and their demand …

Data | From 5% to 15%, China’s share in India’s imports tripled in last two decades
1 year, 11 months ago

Data | From 5% to 15%, China’s share in India’s imports tripled in last two decades

The Hindu  

In 2022, India’s imports from China touched a record high, while exports to China fell to a five-year low. Its share in total exports has decreased from about 7% in 2020 to 3.4% in 2022, a level last seen in 2016 Most exported items The chart shows the 20 most exported goods by India to China in the past three …

The global economy needs a new powerhouse. India is stepping up
1 year, 11 months ago

The global economy needs a new powerhouse. India is stepping up

Live Mint  

India’s economic transformation is kicking into high gear.Global manufacturers are looking beyond China, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi stepping up to seize the moment. “India is on the cusp of huge change,” said Nandan Nilekani, a founder of Infosys Ltd., one of the nation’s largest technology services companies. “A lot of companies feel that given its size, given its young …

TMS Ep352: HUL Q3 results, China's population woes, markets, RRTS
1 year, 11 months ago

TMS Ep352: HUL Q3 results, China's population woes, markets, RRTS

Business Standard  

India’s largest fast-moving consumer goods company Hindustan Unilever reported over 7% jump in its net profit in the third quarter ending December 2022. So is it a sign that the consumption is picking up in rural areas -- where 2/3 of India’s population lives. Revival in rural consumption will indeed help India -- which is poised to become the world’s …

Chinese import surge hits at ‘Make in India’
1 year, 11 months ago

Chinese import surge hits at ‘Make in India’

Hindustan Times  

The government is alarmed by a surge in imports of Chinese finished goods such as electrical machinery, furniture, medical instruments, and implements, including kitchen cutlery, spoon and forks worth billions of dollars, which negates its strategy of Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative, two officials aware of the development said. While imports of raw materials and intermediaries from China are “good imports” as …

Amid slowing demand, exports dip by 12.2%; imports contracts 3.5%
1 year, 11 months ago

Amid slowing demand, exports dip by 12.2%; imports contracts 3.5%

The Hindu  

India exported goods worth $34.48 billion in December 2022, constituting a 7.75% rise from November’s $32 billion figure but a steep 12.2% dip from a year ago, amid slowing global demand. Consequently, the country’s merchandise trade deficit inched up from just under $24 billion in November to $24.24 billion in December, remaining under the $25 billion mark for the second …

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