Who holds the key to luxury’s future?
Live MintAre Chinese shoppers about to embark on another wave of revenge spending? As China moves away from its long-held Zero-Covid approach, the luxury industry hopes the country’s reopening will make up for a sputtering US, which has been the engine of high-end growth for the past two years. But Big Bling’s fortunes are inextricably linked to China, whose shoppers are estimated to have accounted for 17%-19% of global spending in 2022, according to Bain & Co. Chinese officials have begun dismantling the strict pandemic control system of lockdowns, mass testing, state quarantines and electronic contact tracing. Indeed, Bain’s more optimistic forecast for luxury sales growth of 6%-8% year on year in 2023 excluding currency movements, assumes that mainland China fully recovers by the middle of the year, while demand in Europe and North America holds up. Consequently, Bain’s more pessimistic scenario, of a sluggish China plus a slowdown in Europe and the US, is for growth of just 3%-5% in luxury sales next year compared with 2022.