
The Fed is flying blind. Investors don’t seem to care.
Live MintYou can spend a lot of time on Federal Reserve kremlinology, analyzing policymaker statements and forecasts. Fed policymakers say not: Only one official predicted cuts of more than a quarter point at the two meetings between now and the end of the year. Just this year the median policymaker’s rate forecast has swung from predicting three rate cuts by the end of this year, down to one in its dot plot three months ago, and now back up to four, including last week’s double. The hard-hit speculative growth companies had a particularly good day on Thursday, as did the lowest-rated junk bonds, CCC and below, whose yield is almost back down to the extra above Treasurys they offered just after the Fed’s first post-Covid-19 rate rise in 2022. To work out, investors need inflation to come in cooler and the jobs market to weaken a bit more so that the Fed can get comfortable with big cuts, all without any threat of recession that would push up corporate defaults, hit stocks and drag down long-dated bond yields.
History of this topic

US Fed keeps interest rates unchanged: Key takeaways from the meeting
India Today
The Fed holds interest rates steady but cuts economic growth forecasts because of tariffs
CNN
Powell says Fed marking time to see economic impact of Trump policies
Live Mint
Powell says Fed doesn’t need to rush on rate cuts
Live Mint
‘US Fed ‘well positioned’ for risks amid Trump tariffs’: Jerome Powell reiterates ‘go-slow’ approach on rate cuts
Live Mint
Little to no relief from high borrowing costs expected as Fed Chair Powell heads to the Hill
Associated Press
Fed leaves rates unchanged, sees no hurry to cut again
Live Mint
US FOMC to announce interest rate decision soon: Will Fed cut rates due to Trump pressure?
Firstpost
Fed hold rates steady, sees inflation as ‘elevated,’ as Powell declines comment on Trump
Associated Press
Fed pauses interest rate cuts. What happens next may depend on Trump
LA Times
Key takeaways from the Fed’s decision to pause interest rate cuts
CNN
Federal Reserve expected to stand pat on rates even as Donald Trump demands cuts
The Hindu
Why are interest rates rising when the Fed has been cutting them?
Associated Press
Dow falls almost 700 points after blowout jobs report dashes hopes for more rate cuts
CNN
Federal Reserve officials at December meeting expected slower pace of rate cuts ahead
The Hindu
Federal Reserve officials at December meeting expected slower pace of rate cuts ahead
Associated Press
US Fed officials expected slower rate cuts in 2025, say December minutes
Al Jazeera
The Fed is trying—again—to size up Trump
Live Mint
The Fed expects to cut rates more slowly in 2025. What that could mean for mortgages, debt and more
LA Times
Does the Fed even know what it’s trying to do?
Live Mint
Can US Federal Reserve’s revised rate cut outlook accelerate FII outflows from Indian stock market?
Live Mint
Fed lowers rates but sees fewer cuts ahead
China Daily
Fed lowers rates but sees fewer cuts ahead
China Daily
Fed lowers rates but sees fewer cuts ahead
China Daily
Wall Street witnesses a sharp fall after US federal reserve signals lower cuts in 2025
Firstpost
US Fed cuts key interest rates by 0.25%: 3 key takeaways for stock markets
India Today
Feds drop interest rates by another quarter-point easing burden for borrowers
The Independent
US Fed cuts key rate a quarter point and signals fewer cuts ahead
Deccan Chronicle
US Fed lowers benchmark rate to 4.25-4.50% for third straight meeting, eyes two cuts in 2025; 5 key highlights
Live Mint
US Federal Reserve lowers rates by a quarter point, signals two cuts for 2025
Hindustan Times
U.S. Fed expected to cut again, despite uncertain path ahead
Raw Story
Federal Reserve cuts its key rate by a quarter-point but envisions fewer reductions next year
Associated Press
US Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rate for third straight time | Key points
Hindustan Times
The Fed is about to deliver the last rate cut for a while
CNN
Fed makes third rate cut this year, suggests fewer in 2025
Salon
Fed lowers interest rates again but pares back plans for more cuts in the future
LA Times
Will the Fed keep cutting in 2025?
Live Mint
Federal Reserve is likely to slow its rate cuts with inflation pressures still elevated
Associated Press
The Fed’s game plan on interest-rate cuts keeps shifting
Live Mint
US Fed to play ‘cut-and-pause’ for meeting dual mandate of growth & inflation; Fewer rate cuts eyed in 2025: Experts
Live Mint
Bond Market Has Worst Week in Months With Less Fed Action Seen
Live Mint
Investors shouldn’t count on much help from the Fed next year
Live Mint
A top Fed official leans toward December rate cut but says it depends on economic data
Associated Press
Federal Reserve officials signal cautious path for rate cuts amid still-high inflation
Associated Press
month peak as market awaits next Fed cue
Live Mint
Federal Reserve’s likely slowdown in rate cuts could disappoint borrowers
Associated Press
Powell says solid economy allows Fed to consider rate cuts ‘carefully’
Live Mint
US Fed Chair Jerome Powell says no need to rush rate cuts amid strong economy
Live Mint
Powell says Fed will likely cut rates cautiously given persistent inflation pressures
Associated Press
US Fed rate cut: First inflation uptick in 7 months does little for Powell-led FOMC’s December plans; here’s why
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