Why falling inflation masks some nasty surprises
The IndependentWell, we’re finally out of double figures. The headline Consumer Prices Index rate of inflation for April came in at 8.7 per cent against 10.1 per cent in March. It’s a steep fall, but a lot less steep than most had hoped or expected; a Reuters poll of economists predicted 8.2 per cent, while the Bank of England’s more conservative forecast was 8.4 per cent. Food prices are picking up the slack, remaining stubbornly high; the official figure came in at 19.1 per cent, barely changed on the previous month’s 19.2 per cent despite the fuss supermarkets have been making about cutting the price of some essentials. Jeremy Hunt said: “The IMF said yesterday we’ve acted decisively to tackle inflation but, although it is positive that it is now in single digits, food prices are still rising too fast… we must stick resolutely to the plan to get inflation down.” That plan is now going to involve more pain because numbers like this are creating pain for the Treasury.