Watching Cambodia’s Commune Elections

On June 5, Cambodia will go to the polls for important commune and sangkat council elections, a curtain-raiser for national elections due to be held next year. However, as the first election to be held since the CPP’s clean sweep at the 2018 national election, the conduct and outcome of the commune elections give some sense of how much political space the CPP intends to permit as Hun Sen moves toward his long-expected retirement. In early May, the European Parliament adopted a resolution expressing “its deep concern over the backsliding on human rights in Cambodia in light of the upcoming local elections in June 2022 and national elections in 2023.” The resolution suggested that the European Commission should be “prepared to use all tools available, including a complete suspension of Cambodia’s ‘Everything But Arms’ status and other sanctions, if electoral observers find evidence of unfair elections.” In Washington, meanwhile, Hun Sen’s authoritarianism and close relationship with China have become largely indistinguishable in the minds of many U.S. policymakers. In February, in response to concerns by visiting Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa,​ who urged Cambodia to ensure that the upcoming elections are conducted democratically, Hun Sen instructed local authorities not to disturb the activities of opposition parties prior to the election. Second is whether the CPP is able to permit more political freedoms without threatening a repeat of the 2013 national election, when the new CNRP shocked Hun Sen’s party by making significant gains.