Asia on Edge: What MAGA Think Tanks Reveal About a Trump 2.0 Presidency
The DiplomatThe United States is in the middle of campaign season for an election whose outcome could very well significantly alter Washington’s diplomatic, security, and economic orientation vis-à-vis Asia. Neither is it likely that Trump would be able or willing to revise what the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen called the “absolute decline in American resolve.” Trade While the changes in U.S. foreign policy put forward by MAGA-aligned think tanks would certainly pose challenges for Asian allies and partners, the ideas floated do not have the potential to significantly alter the structures or practices of security cooperation in Asia. For example, exports to the U.S. from countries like Vietnam or Indonesia have surged as a result of Trump’s first “trade war” with China, leading to growing trade imbalances. Trump has specifically criticized India’s high tariff rates, referring to it as the “tariff king.” It has also been suggested that the U.S. Congress should review China’s permanent normal trade relations status, which gives China preferential trade treatment via, for example, lower tariffs or the absence of import quotas. MAGA-aligned think tanks also propose further economic decoupling from China as well as increased “friend-shoring” of U.S. trade and investment.