IMF cuts 2023 global outlook over colliding global shocks
Al JazeeraThe three largest economies will ‘continue to stall’, ‘the worst is yet to come’ and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession, it warned. “In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.” In its World Economic Outlook the IMF said global GDP growth next year will slow to 2.7 percent, compared to a 2.9 percent forecast in July, as higher interest rates slow the United States economy, Europe struggles with spiking gas prices and China contends with continued COVID-19 lockdowns and a weakening property sector. Priority: inflation The global economy’s future health “rests critically” on the successful calibration of monetary policy, the course of the war in Ukraine and the possibility of further pandemic-related supply-side disruptions, the IMF said. “This would prove much more detrimental to future macroeconomic stability.” So far, however, price pressures are proving “quite stubborn and a major source of concern for policymakers”, the IMF said, adding while it expects global inflation to peak in late 2022 at 9.5 percent. Downside scenario A “plausible combination of shocks”, including a 30 percent spike in oil prices from current levels, could darken the outlook considerably, the IMF said, pushing global growth down to 1 percent next year, a level associated with widely falling real incomes.