Should we be worried by the ‘Rishession’… and is Brexit to blame?
The IndependentEconomists spent much of last year discussing the dreaded R-word, and whether the UK could avoid recession. But Bailey and his colleagues don’t think the inflationary dragon has been truly slain, even though the headline rate is expected to fall quickly over the next couple of months and could be back to the Bank’s hallowed 2 per cent target in April. But the Resolution Foundation notes that per-capita GDP fell by 0.7 per cent over the same period, and hasn’t grown since the first part 2022 – the longest run of decline or stagnation since 1955. Goldman Sachs – Rishi Sunak’s old shop, remember – said recently that Brexit has saddled the nation with lower growth and higher inflation. That estimate is in the same ballpark as that of the Centre for European Reform, where John Springford uses an algorithm to identify a “doppelgänger UK” that never left the EU, and then compares it with where we are now: “Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model,” he concluded, “and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.” Indeed so.
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Brexit unease sees UK economy takes a turn for the worse
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