CAD set to widen, inflation to remain high: Deloitte report
1 year, 11 months ago

CAD set to widen, inflation to remain high: Deloitte report

Live Mint  

India’s current account deficit is set to worsen going forward led by higher imports and slower exports, Deloitte warned in a report shared exclusively with Mint. The report pointed out that the pressure on the rupee is “worrisome” and that India may want to consider restricting imports of non-essential items or scouting for cheaper import sources. It is the only nation expected to see a sizeable rise in CAD due to higher imports and slower exports… The pressure on rupee is worrisome and India could deal with the situation by restricting imports of non-essentials or looking for alternative cheaper import destinations,” said Deloitte in the report. The report said that although India’s forex reserves declined from 13 months of import cover at the beginning of 2021 to eight months due to foreign institutional investment outflows, “India is not in a worrisome situation as the country has accumulated sizeable forex reserves over the years by importing capital.” The report flagged that inflation will continue to remain high, compelling the RBI to keep the monetary policy tight, which is expected to hurt consumption and investment over the next year, thereby moderating the economic demand.

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History of this topic

India’s fiscal deficit will be 4.8 pc in FY25, below budget estimate of 4.9 pc: CareEdge Ratings
1 week, 1 day ago

India’s fiscal deficit will be 4.8 pc in FY25, below budget estimate of 4.9 pc: CareEdge Ratings

Live Mint  

New Delhi, December 16 : The fiscal deficit of the central government is projected to be 4.8 per cent of GDP for FY25, slightly below the budgeted estimate of 4.9 per cent, according to a report by CareEdge Ratings. It said "Overall, we project the fiscal deficit at 4.8 per cent of GDP, marginally lower than the budgeted 4.9 per …

Monetary policy review: RBI should stick to its price stability mandate
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Monetary policy review: RBI should stick to its price stability mandate

Live Mint  

One of the lingering effects of covid—‘long covid’—is that economic growth has begun to look a bit like the Sensex, albeit in slow motion. So, last fiscal year’s growth looked rosy in large part because growth in 2022-23 had flagged since 2021-22, when it was 9.7% but on a covid-shrunken GDP base of 2020-21. As the US Fed and major …

India’s GDP growth estimated to decelerate to 6.3% in 2025, says Goldman Sachs; sees shallow RBI rate cut from Q1CY25
1 month ago

India’s GDP growth estimated to decelerate to 6.3% in 2025, says Goldman Sachs; sees shallow RBI rate cut from Q1CY25

Live Mint  

India’s economic growth is expected to decelerate in 2025, said Goldman Sachs even as it believes that the economy will likely be insulated from global shocks emanating out of a potential trade war between US and China. Though India’s strong long-term structural growth story remains intact, we forecast GDP growth to decelerate to 6.3% YoY in CY25, on continued fiscal …

India’s current account deficit to remain manageable in FY25, Rupee to remain in pressure: Bank of Baroda
1 month, 1 week ago

India’s current account deficit to remain manageable in FY25, Rupee to remain in pressure: Bank of Baroda

Live Mint  

New Delhi, November 15 : India's current account deficit will remain within a manageable range for both FY25 and FY26, largely due to muted oil prices that are expected to support the country's external financial position, projected a recent report by Bank of Baroda. Despite global market volatility, the report stated that steady oil prices at current levels are a …

India's current account deficit gap widens in April-June: RBI
2 months, 3 weeks ago

India's current account deficit gap widens in April-June: RBI

Hindustan Times  

India's current account deficit widened on-year in the April-June quarter, largely due to a higher merchandise trade deficit, the central bank said on Monday. The Reserve Bank of India reported a current account deficit of $9.7 billion for April-June, driven by a $65.1 billion merchandise trade deficit. The current account deficit stood at $9.7 billion, or 1.1% of the GDP, …

India’s Current Account Balance Turns Surplus in Q4FY24
6 months ago

India’s Current Account Balance Turns Surplus in Q4FY24

Deccan Chronicle  

Mumbai: India’s current account balance recorded a surplus of $ 5.7 billion in the fourth quarter of FY24 due to higher service exports and private transfer receipts, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India. The current account balance was in deficit of $ 8.7 billion in Q3 2023-24 and $ 1.3 billion a year ago. Net services …

India's June quarter current account deficit narrows to 1.1 per cent: RBI
1 year, 2 months ago

India's June quarter current account deficit narrows to 1.1 per cent: RBI

Hindustan Times  

India's current account deficit narrowed to USD 9.2 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP for the April-June period, the Reserve Bank said on Thursday. The net external commercial borrowings to India recorded an inflow of USD 5.6 billion in the quarter compared to an outflow of USD 2.9 billion a year ago, the RBI said The current account deficit, …

Balance of payment data gives fewer reasons to cheer
1 year, 5 months ago

Balance of payment data gives fewer reasons to cheer

Live Mint  

The latest balance of payments data was a mixed bag. However, strong domestic economic momentum and higher capital spending may keep underlying import demand intact at a time exports are facing challenges from a global slowdown. With the current account likely to remain in deficit in FY24, a resilient capital account surplus will be crucial to contain the impact of …

CAD narrows to 0.2% of GDP in Q4 FY23 on lower trade deficit, higher services exports
1 year, 5 months ago

CAD narrows to 0.2% of GDP in Q4 FY23 on lower trade deficit, higher services exports

The Hindu  

India's current account deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion or 0.2% of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY23, mainly due to moderation in the trade deficit and a robust increase in services exports, RBI data showed on June 27. “India’s current account deficit decreased to $1.3 billion in Q4:2022-23 from $16.8 billion in Q3:2022-231, and $13.4 billion a year ago,” …

India's current account deficit dips to 0.2% of GDP in Q4 FY23: RBI data
1 year, 5 months ago

India's current account deficit dips to 0.2% of GDP in Q4 FY23: RBI data

India TV News  

According to RBI data released on Tuesday, India's current account deficit decreased to USD 1.3 billion, or 0.2% of GDP, during the January-March quarter of FY23. "India's CAD decreased to USD 1.3 billion in Q4:2022-23 from USD 16.8 billion in Q3:2022-231, and USD 13.4 billion a year ago," the Reserve Bank stated. The trade deficit decreased to USD 52.6 billion …

RBI's Annual Report: India's Growth Momentum Likely To Be Sustained In 2023-24
1 year, 6 months ago

RBI's Annual Report: India's Growth Momentum Likely To Be Sustained In 2023-24

ABP News  

The Reserve Bank of India's annual report on Tuesday said that India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures on the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices. The annual report, a statutory report of its Central Board of Directors, said, "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer …

Pakistan's current account deficit decreases as imports grind to near standstill
1 year, 10 months ago

Pakistan's current account deficit decreases as imports grind to near standstill

Firstpost  

Karachi: Pakistan’s current account deficit dropped to $0.2 billion in January 2023, down 90% from last year as the rupee’s depreciation slowed down imports, the central bank said on Monday. In less than a month, cash-strapped Pakistan’s currency has lost more than a quarter of its value against the US dollar after the removal of artificial caps, and fuel prices …

Indian economy to grow 6-6.8% next fiscal year: Eco Survey
1 year, 10 months ago

Indian economy to grow 6-6.8% next fiscal year: Eco Survey

Deccan Chronicle  

NEW DELHI: India's economy is projected to slow to 6-6.8 per cent in the fiscal year starting April - still remaining the fastest growing major economy in the world - as extraordinary challenges facing the globe will likely hurt exports, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday. The projection of India's gross domestic product growth is higher than the 6.1 per …

Economic Survey 2023: Current Account Deficit May Continue To Widen Due To Rising Commodity Prices
1 year, 10 months ago

Economic Survey 2023: Current Account Deficit May Continue To Widen Due To Rising Commodity Prices

ABP News  

The Economic Survey 2022-23 on Tuesday underlined the need for close monitoring of the current account deficit which may continue to widen because of elevated global commodity prices. India's current account deficit widened to 4.4 per cent of the GDP in the quarter ending September, from 2.2 per cent of the GDP during the April-June period due to a higher …

Economic Survey 2022-23 highlights need to monitor current account deficit
1 year, 10 months ago

Economic Survey 2022-23 highlights need to monitor current account deficit

The Hindu  

The Economic Survey 2022-23 on Tuesday underlined the need for close monitoring of the current account deficit which may continue to widen because of elevated global commodity prices. ".a downside risk to the current account balance stems from a swift recovery driven mainly by domestic demand, and to a lesser extent, by exports," the Survey said, adding "CAD needs to …

Mint Explainer: After covid, the unfolding of an unfair world
1 year, 11 months ago

Mint Explainer: After covid, the unfolding of an unfair world

Live Mint  

The post-pandemic world is not only poorer, but also becoming more unequal and unfair. Severe lockdowns in pursuit of "zero covid" appears to have slowed the Chinese economy for now, but the developing world -- with the possible exception of India -- has taken a bigger hit. The World Bank also points out that "the large fiscal demand on global …

DC Edit | Economic data spreading cheer, jobs still a concern
1 year, 11 months ago

DC Edit | Economic data spreading cheer, jobs still a concern

Deccan Chronicle  

If you placed all highlights of the economic data, released in the last few days both in India and the United States of America, as dots on a canvas to draw a picture, it would make for a happy smiley face. The country’s retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent in December 2022, from 5.88 per …

High CAD, Fed’s rate hike course likely to keep rupee under pressure in 2023
1 year, 11 months ago

High CAD, Fed’s rate hike course likely to keep rupee under pressure in 2023

Live Mint  

Indian rupee may underperform its Asian counterparts in the current year due to the high current account deficit which is likely to push RBI for opting to absorb dollar inflows to rebuild its forex reserves. As per a Reuters report, Siddharth Mathur, head of EM research, APAC at BNP Paribas said, the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve hikes rates …

Indian economy poised for further growth in 2023 despite global headwinds
1 year, 11 months ago

Indian economy poised for further growth in 2023 despite global headwinds

Deccan Chronicle  

NEW DELHI: The Indian economy recovered from the COVID-induced downturn during 2022 and is poised for further improvement in the coming quarters though downside risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, strengthening dollar and elevated inflation will continue. The challenges before the government and the Reserve Bank in the new year would be to arrest inflation, check declining value of rupee against …

DC Edit | Promising signs in economy
2 years ago

DC Edit | Promising signs in economy

Deccan Chronicle  

The RBI governor Shaktikanta Das-led Monetary Policy Committee hiked the repo rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent — the fifth straight increase in the current cycle since May 2022 — as it seeks to fight global uncertainty and uncomfortable levels of inflation. The RBI governor’s post-policy meeting comments hint that the central government remains focused on inflation, …

Govt sees GDP growth dipping below the RBI forecast
2 years ago

Govt sees GDP growth dipping below the RBI forecast

Live Mint  

The government expects India’s economic growth to slow to 6.5% in the current fiscal year because of external shocks and monetary policy tightening, a government official said. Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist of India Ratings and Research, said demand recovery appears weaker than expected if one looks at volume growth of fast-moving consumer goods firms in the second quarter of …

Demonetisation behind the buoyancy in tax collections, says RBI MPC member
2 years, 2 months ago

Demonetisation behind the buoyancy in tax collections, says RBI MPC member

The Hindu  

RBI Monetary Policy Committee member Ashima Goyal has attributed the rise in tax collections to demonetisation and said that it will help the nation move towards the ideal situation where low taxes are levied on a large base. Replying to a question on Central Bank Digital Currency, Ms. Goyal said the objectives of the CBDC are to reduce the use …

RBI Bulletin: Battle Against Surging Inflation Will Be Dogged, Prolonged
2 years, 2 months ago

RBI Bulletin: Battle Against Surging Inflation Will Be Dogged, Prolonged

ABP News  

The Reserve Bank of India in its article on Monday said that the battle against inflation will be dogged and prolonged, given the long and variable lags with which monetary policy operates. Retail inflation spiked to 7.41 per cent in September, remaining above central bank’s upper tolerance level of 6 per cent for the ninth month in a row. With …

Asian Development Bank pares 2022-23 GDP growth forecast for India to 7% from 7.5%
2 years, 3 months ago

Asian Development Bank pares 2022-23 GDP growth forecast for India to 7% from 7.5%

The Hindu  

The Asian Development Bank has pared its 2022-23 growth projection for India’s economy to 7% from 7.5% estimated in April, terming it a “modest downward revision” driven by higher-than-anticipated inflation and monetary tightening. The first quarter growth of 13.5% reflected strong growth in services for India, but GDP growth forecasts were being revised downward as price pressures are expected to …

RBI raises rates, vows nimble policy
2 years, 4 months ago

RBI raises rates, vows nimble policy

The Hindu  

With inflation remaining at ‘elevated levels’, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India unanimously decided to raise the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.4%. Highlights of the RBI’s fourth monetary policy review of fiscal year 2022-23 Key short-term lending rate raised by 50 basis points to 5.4% In all, 140 bps hike in repo …

Data | Why the rupee is under pressure — explained in seven charts
2 years, 4 months ago

Data | Why the rupee is under pressure — explained in seven charts

The Hindu  

Till recently, the rupee was recording fresh lows every other day. Deteriorating CAD A widening trade deficit causes the current account deficit to deteriorate which in turn adds pressure on the local currency. With slowing global economic growth and looming recession fears, a depreciating currency may not help spur exports which otherwise would have helped at least partly bridge the …

Current Account Deficit: Govt Carefully Monitoring Situation, Taken Few Steps, Says FM
2 years, 4 months ago

Current Account Deficit: Govt Carefully Monitoring Situation, Taken Few Steps, Says FM

News 18  

Even as the crude oil price is rising and gold imports remain high, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said the government is carefully monitoring the current account deficit situation, adding that the RBI recently took steps to increase foreign exchange inflows to narrow the deficit. India’s current account deficit stood at 1.2 per cent of GDP in 2021-22 against a …

Current Account Deficit expected to deteriorate in FY23 on costlier import: FinMin Report
2 years, 5 months ago

Current Account Deficit expected to deteriorate in FY23 on costlier import: FinMin Report

The Hindu  

India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on July 14 by the Ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven …

India’s currency could keep falling without failing us
2 years, 5 months ago

India’s currency could keep falling without failing us

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee has historically weakened against the US dollar, but bouts of volatility never fail to set alarm bells ringing. A ‘shock’ could take the form of sharp interest rate increases by systemically important central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, geopolitical developments, oil price volatility, or a financial crisis—all of which create a risk-off scenario, leading to …

Indian rupee hits record low on CAD concerns
2 years, 5 months ago

Indian rupee hits record low on CAD concerns

The Hindu  

The Indian rupee hit a record low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as concerns of a wider current account deficit came to the forefront after the country's trade deficit hit an all-time high in June. Data late on Monday showed India's June trade deficit widened to a record high of $25.63 billion, following a rise in crude oil and …

India\'s GDP growth forecast cut to 7.9 per cent: Morgan Stanley
2 years, 9 months ago

India\'s GDP growth forecast cut to 7.9 per cent: Morgan Stanley

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: As higher oil prices torpedo economic recovery worldwide, Morgan Stanley has cut India's GDP forecast for the fiscal year beginning April 1 by 50 basis points to 7.9 per cent, raised retail inflation projection to 6 per cent and expects current account deficit to widen to 3 per cent of GDP. "Building in higher oil prices, we trim …

Investor exuberance amidst real economy recession
3 years, 11 months ago

Investor exuberance amidst real economy recession

The Hindu  

I T is a paradox that has periodically recurred in recent times. Thus, over the April-September of 2019, India’s balance of payments showed a current account deficit of $22.6 billion, and it was only because net capital inflows were a much larger $41.7 billion that the country recorded a $19.1 billion increase in reserves. To summarise, the record reserve accumulation …

RBI holds rates, sees shallower GDP contraction at 7.5%
4 years ago

RBI holds rates, sees shallower GDP contraction at 7.5%

The Hindu  

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India on Friday left benchmark interest rates unchanged and maintained an ‘accommodative’ policy stance as it prioritised support for the economy's recovery over ‘sticky’ inflation amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The RBI also brightened its outlook for the economy, projecting that the GDP contraction would narrow to 7.5% for the financial year …

India Reports Current Account Surplus for Second Straight Quarter at 3.9% of GDP in April-June
4 years, 2 months ago

India Reports Current Account Surplus for Second Straight Quarter at 3.9% of GDP in April-June

News 18  

India's current account surplus increased to $19.8 billion or 3.9 per cent of GDP for the June quarter as merchandise imports declined amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the Reserve Bank said on Wednesday. The country's current account surplus had come at $0.6 billion or 0.1 per cent of GDP in the preceding March quarter, while it had reported a current account …

India inflation could surge to 12% on 2nd stimulus, Rabobank says
4 years, 5 months ago

India inflation could surge to 12% on 2nd stimulus, Rabobank says

Live Mint  

India can expect inflation to surge to more than double the central bank’s target and the currency could lose a quarter of its value if the Reserve Bank of India begins printing money to fund the government’s spending. That’s according to Rabobank, which said in a report this week that India should avoid repeating the mistakes of the 1980s, when …

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