Canadian bank expects short-lived recession in 2023
2 years, 5 months ago

Canadian bank expects short-lived recession in 2023

Associated Press  

TORONTO — A report issued Thursday by the Royal Bank of Canada says the country is headed towards a recession in 2023, but it will be short-lived and not as severe as prior downturns. RBC economists said that soaring food and energy prices, rising interest rates and ongoing labor shortages will push the economy into a “moderate contraction″ next year. “We see growth slowing into the end of this year, but remaining positive, then we expect two quarters of declining GDP in Q2 and Q3 of 2023,″ RBC economist Nathan Janzen said in an interview. ”The pace of employment growth will start slowing though, but that’s more about limited supply of labor rather than demand.″ Meanwhile, the pace of wage growth will increase for the rest of this year, Janzen said, as businesses look to fill job vacancies and retain talent, and consumers continue to face high prices. RBC said a three-quarters of a percentage point interest rate increase is likely next week, mirroring the U.S. Federal Reserve’s move last month.

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History of this topic

US Federal Reserve cuts key interest rates by 0.25%
5 days, 18 hours ago

US Federal Reserve cuts key interest rates by 0.25%

India Today  

WASHINGTON : The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate on Wednesday by a quarter-point — its third cut this year — but also signaled that it expects to reduce rates more slowly next year than it previously envisioned, largely because of still-elevated inflation. The Fed’s 19 policymakers projected that they will cut their benchmark rate by a quarter-point just …

US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, signals slower cuts for 2025
Trending News
5 days, 18 hours ago

US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, signals slower cuts for 2025

India TV News  

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter for the third consecutive time. Future outlook: Moderate reductions expected by 2025 Another quarterly outlook indicated only two rate cuts in 2025, with officials predicting government rates to reach 3.75 per cent-4 per cent by the end of that year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warned that inflation would remain …

Feds drop interest rates by another quarter-point easing burden for borrowers
Trending News
5 days, 19 hours ago

Feds drop interest rates by another quarter-point easing burden for borrowers

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. This year's Fed rate reductions have marked a …

US Federal Reserve cuts key interest rates by 0.25%
5 days, 22 hours ago

US Federal Reserve cuts key interest rates by 0.25%

The Hindu  

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate on Wednesday by a quarter-point — its third cut this year — but also signaled that it expects to reduce rates more slowly next year than it previously envisioned, largely because of still-elevated inflation. The Fed’s 19 policymakers projected that they will cut their benchmark rate by a quarter-point just twice in …

U.S. Federal Reserve is set to cut key rate but consumers might not feel much benefit anytime soon
6 days, 11 hours ago

U.S. Federal Reserve is set to cut key rate but consumers might not feel much benefit anytime soon

The Hindu  

Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday will likely signal a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year compared with the past few months, which would mean that Americans might enjoy only slight relief from still-high borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. The central bank’s policymakers may signal that they expect to reduce their key rate just two …

Bank of Canada slashes interest rates with another jumbo cut
1 week, 6 days ago

Bank of Canada slashes interest rates with another jumbo cut

Al Jazeera  

Bank of Canada governor also said potential tariffs by Trump posed a ‘major new uncertainty’. On Wednesday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem also said for the first time that the possibility the new administration of US President-elect Donald Trump might impose tariffs on Canadian exports represented “a major new uncertainty”. ‘Major new uncertainty’ Canada’s economy grew at an annualised …

Canadian dollar rebounds as investors rethink tariff risk
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Canadian dollar rebounds as investors rethink tariff risk

Live Mint  

* Canadian dollar gains 0.6% against the greenback * Trades in a range of 1.3851 to 1.3948 * Price of U.S. oil settles 0.9% higher * Bond yields ease across the curve By Fergal Smith TORONTO, Nov 7 - The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and investors grew less …

ECB's Interest Rate Cut: A Gradual Shift Towards Neutral
2 months, 1 week ago

ECB's Interest Rate Cut: A Gradual Shift Towards Neutral

Live Mint  

European Central Bank lowers interest rates for the third time this year to support growth. The key deposit rate was cut by a quarter-point to 3.25% — as predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The ECB said the process of taming prices should be complete “in the course of next year”. However, officials didn’t specify when or how …

These numbers are the clues to the Reserve Bank's puzzle: when will interest rates go down?
3 months ago

These numbers are the clues to the Reserve Bank's puzzle: when will interest rates go down?

ABC  

Perhaps no question matters more to Australians worn down by three years of relentless cost pressures: when will the Reserve Bank cut interest rates? But not too much – which is why when inflation shoots high, the Reserve Bank raises interest rates to suppress demand by making it more expensive to borrow and spend. But the Reserve Bank prefers a …

The Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in a big moment for the economy
3 months ago

The Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in a big moment for the economy

NPR  

The Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in a big moment for the economy toggle caption Win McNamee/Getty Images North America The Federal Reserve moved aggressively Wednesday to start cutting interest rates as its single-minded focus on fighting inflation gives way to a growing interest in protecting the job market. On average, members of the Fed's rate-setting committee expect borrowing …

Bank of Canada cuts rates, indicates bigger cut possible
3 months, 2 weeks ago

Bank of Canada cuts rates, indicates bigger cut possible

Al Jazeera  

Wednesday marked the third consecutive cut, with the central bank citing continued easing in broad inflationary pressures. The Bank of Canada has trimmed its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent as forecast and Governor Tiff Macklem, citing weak growth, said a larger cut could be in order if the economy needs a boost. Wednesday marked the …

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

Why the Reserve Bank of Australia should hold off on interest rate hikes in August
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Why the Reserve Bank of Australia should hold off on interest rate hikes in August

ABC  

There's a curious thing about openness, communication and transparency. Because, despite recently showing a real reluctance to want to push interest rates even higher, she and her Reserve Bank of Australia colleagues have for the past two years made it abundantly clear that they were committed to hammering inflation into submission. Money markets right now have just a one-in-five chance …

Canada Unemployment Rises But Wages Spur Caution on July Cut
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Canada Unemployment Rises But Wages Spur Caution on July Cut

Live Mint  

-- Canada’s unemployment rate rose for the third time in four months, but rising wages and a strong US labor report prompted some economists to express caution on the pace of Bank of Canada rate cuts. “We expect that will lead to a gradual pace of interest rate reductions this year, with the Bank of Canada likely to cut at …

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as economy takes center stage in runup to general election
10 months, 1 week ago

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as economy takes center stage in runup to general election

Associated Press  

LONDON — The British economy fell into recession at the end of 2023 for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, as output shrank more than anticipated in the final three months of the year, official figures showed Thursday. The quarterly decline followed a 0.1% fall in the previous three-month period and highlights how the economy has …

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year
1 year ago

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year

NPR  

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year Enlarge this image toggle caption Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images The Federal Reserve signaled it's probably done raising interest rates to curb inflation and the central bank could start cutting rates next year. "We're seeing inflation making real progress," Fed chairman Jerome Powell told reporters …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 2 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady but hints at more action this year
1 year, 3 months ago

The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady but hints at more action this year

NPR  

The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady but hints at more action this year Enlarge this image toggle caption Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged Wednesday, but signaled that it's open to an additional rate hike, if necessary, to combat stubborn inflation. Sponsor Message Economic projections released Wednesday show …

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 5 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined …

The world seems headed for a mild output contraction
1 year, 5 months ago

The world seems headed for a mild output contraction

Live Mint  

There are currently four scenarios for the global economic outlook. The most positive is a ‘soft landing,’ where central banks in advanced economies manage to bring inflation down to their 2% targets without triggering a recession. If the effort to tame inflation triggers severe economic and financial instability, a fourth scenario becomes possible: central banks wimp out and allow for …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted

LA Times  

Over the last year, the Federal Reserve has raised its key short-term rate eight times, causing many kinds of consumer and business loans, including auto loans, to become more expensive. A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

In US, key interest rate hiked to 15-year-high to fight inflation
2 years ago

In US, key interest rate hiked to 15-year-high to fight inflation

Hindustan Times  

The Federal Reserve reinforced its inflation fight Wednesday by raising its key interest rate for the seventh time this year and signaling more hikes to come. “But it will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path.” In its updated forecasts, the Fed’s policymakers predicted slower growth and higher unemployment for next year …

Fed raises key rate by half-point and signals more to come
2 years ago

Fed raises key rate by half-point and signals more to come

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve reinforced its inflation fight Wednesday by raising its key interest rate for the seventh time this year and signaling more hikes to come. “But it will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a sustained downward path.” In its updated forecasts, the Fed’s policymakers predicted slower growth and higher unemployment for …

US Federal Reserve raises key interest rate as recession fears mount
2 years, 3 months ago

US Federal Reserve raises key interest rate as recession fears mount

New Indian Express  

It was the third consecutive increase of 0.75 percentage point by the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, continuing the forceful action to tamp down inflation that has surged to the highest in 40 years. Soaring prices are putting the squeeze on American families and businesses and have become a political liability for President Joe Biden, as he faces midterm …

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession
2 years, 3 months ago

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The last time the Federal Reserve faced inflation as high as it is now, in the early 1980s, it jacked up interest rates to double-digit levels — and in the process caused a deep recession and sharply higher unemployment. “We think we can avoid the very high social costs that Paul Volcker and the Fed had to bring …

Reserve Bank raises interest rates again in most aggressive increases since 1994
2 years, 3 months ago

Reserve Bank raises interest rates again in most aggressive increases since 1994

ABC  

The Reserve Bank has raised interest rates by 0.5 of a percentage point, taking its cash rate target to 2.35 per cent. Key points: The RBA has raised the cash rate by 0.5 of a percentage point for the fourth straight month The cash rate target of 2.35 per cent is the highest since the beginning of 2015 RBA governor …

Canada’s central bank raises interest rate a full point
2 years, 5 months ago

Canada’s central bank raises interest rate a full point

Associated Press  

TORONTO — Canada’s central bank said Wednesday it is raising its target interest rate by a full percentage point in an effort to fight inflation — and warned more rate hikes are likely to follow. The Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 2.5% in the biggest increase since 1998 and the highest level since 2008. Demand needs to …

Race for relevance: The Hindu Editorial on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s steepest interest rate increase in more than 27 years
2 years, 6 months ago

Race for relevance: The Hindu Editorial on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s steepest interest rate increase in more than 27 years

The Hindu  

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday implemented its steepest interest rate increase in more than 27 years as it fights to rein in runaway inflation. Acknowledging that inflation had ‘surprised to the upside’ since the Federal Open Market Committee had last met in May, he said the committee agreed that the larger increase was required to anchor inflation expectations. Even …

The Fed has a new plan to avoid recession: Party like it’s 1994
2 years, 7 months ago

The Fed has a new plan to avoid recession: Party like it’s 1994

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Wide leg jeans, butterfly clips and half-point rate increases: The 1990s are back. Powell also indicated that he wouldn’t hesitate to do it again — a move straight out of the central bank’s 1994 playbook, when the Fed last tempered the US economy and successfully executed a so-called soft landing. In the 12 months that …

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