Polymarket shouldn't allow people to bet on the L.A. fires

In our sporting corner of the world, betting is everywhere. “My guess,” said Nathanael Fast, director of the USC Neely Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision Making, “is that most people don’t like the idea of individuals betting on or making money off disasters and catastrophes.” Polymarket aims to set the chance of something happening, then harness collective opinion to adjust that probability in real time. In a statement to The Times, a Polymarket spokesman said: “These markets address the same questions being discussed across cable news and X. We’ve proven that prediction markets can be an invaluable alternative information source for those seeking real-time quantitative data.” Said Fast: “I have a hard time imagining that people are logging onto Polymarket to decide whether or not to evacuate. On its site, Polymarket says this is one criterion for the company opening a prediction market: “Is there social good or news value in understanding the probability generated by the market?” Said Fast: “It could create the incentive to influence events or, in the case of wildfires, it could lead to a callous attitude toward others’ suffering. If we are gamifying life-and-death issues, it could really negatively influence culture and society in a way we don’t like.” Polymarket offers odds on such topics as the NFL playoffs, whether Donald Trump will follow through on his pledge to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift get engaged this year, and how many times Elon Musk will tweet in a given week.