Perfect Storm: The Rising Risk of China-US Conflict Over Taiwan
The DiplomatFollowing Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s return from an early December trip to the South Pacific, China conducted what appeared to be its most extensive military exercises around Taiwan in decades. China’s broader strategic orientation in the East China Sea is not just informed by Taiwan, but also by the perception of a general security threat from the United States. Taken together, this means that any actual conflict, even if it started over the specific issue of preserving Taiwan’s status quo, would have major implications for the regional and global balance of power between China and the United States – but so also would backing down and allowing the other side to achieve its strategic goals. The risk of underestimating China’s resolve is that a hawkish U.S. administration could feel emboldened to increase support for Taiwan to a degree that China deems too escalatory, and thus feels compelled to respond to with a demonstration of PLA capability.