Brexit damage to economy as big as Covid, says OBR
The IndependentSign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UK Sign up to our Brexit email for the latest insight Sign up to our Brexit email for the latest insight SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Asked how much stronger the economy would have been without Brexit, he told the BBC: “We think that, in the long run, reduces our overall output by around 4 per cent compared to had we remained in the EU.” While the OBR first predicted a 4 per cent long-term hit to GDP in 2021, the chairman has been reluctant to be drawn into assessing the seriousness of the damage from Britain’s exit from the bloc. “But we do expect, as we get past this year and we go into the next three or four years, that real income starts to recover.” He added: “But it’s still the case that people’s real spending power doesn’t get back to the level it was before the pandemic even after five years, even by the time we get to the late 2020s.” Mr Hughes said economic growth had been held back because of “supply constraints” – pointing to labour shortages and an investment slump. Asked if he accepted that Britain has become a “poorer country”, he said: “Everyone accepts if we hadn’t had the war … if hadn’t had the pandemic we would have been in a position when the growth rate was significantly higher.” In December, the Centre for European Reform found that Brexit cost the UK a staggering £33bn in lost trade, investment and growth. It comes as Bard – Google’s new artificial intelligence chatbot – said Brexit was a “bad idea” and the UK would be “better off remaining in the EU”.
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