India’s China challenge: The stakes are higher than ever before

There is hardly any clarity on what China wants — whether Beijing aims to amicably settle the boundary issues and make further progress in trade and cultural ties or if it seeks to encroach on India’s territory On April 10, 2024, amidst the high-pitched and polarising campaign for the upcoming national elections in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a crucial interview to Newsweek, an American publication. However, regarding China’s intent, many Indian scholars and diplomats believe that India can engage with China and resolve the boundary issues through bilateral diplomatic initiatives. Additionally, on various occasions, China has irked India either by issuing stapled visas to the citizens of Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh or by blocking the designation of Pakistan- Furthermore, China’s rigid and intransigent attitude towards the boundary issues, despite 21 rounds of core commander-level talks following the Galwan deadlock, coupled with its heavy investment in dual-use infrastructure in the border regions, raises serious suspicions about China’s long-term intent. Moreover, there are perceptions that, to counter India’s strong naval presence in the Indian Ocean—where India could potentially blockade China’s shipping routes through the Malacca Strait—Beijing aims to keep India constrained either by propping up the Kashmir issue with its all-weather friend Pakistan and its network of proxy terrorist groups in Kashmir and the Indian hinterland, or by salami-slicing incursions along the India-China border. Mapping Escalation Scenarios In 1962, when the Indian and Chinese armies were locked in a stand-off on the Himalayan borders over the boundary question, Communist leader Mao Zedong, drawing lessons from classical Chinese tradition, told his commanders that China and India had previously fought ‘one and a half wars’ and that Beijing could seek its strategic direction from history.