8 years, 10 months ago

How big an impact could turnout have on the referendum result?

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox Get our free View from Westminster email Get our free View from Westminster email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. A British Election Survey study of 22,000 voters in May, one of the largest to date, gave Remain a 43 to 40.5 per cent lead overall – but among voters who said they were very likely to vote, the result was reversed, giving Leave a narrow 45 to 44.5 victory. But among the over 55s this pattern is almost perfectly reversed, with 54 per cent saying they’ll vote to leave and only 30 per cent plumping for Remain. Polls suggest that their voters are more likely to go out and vote, therefore if overall turnout is low it could be those committed Leave voters who sway it, while "soft" Remain voters, including many young people, stay at home. So while the reliable grey vote looks strong for Leave, and Remain could be hit by a low turnout among the young, its strong showing among the professional classes could counteract this "turnout" advantage.

The Independent
British Young Turnout Voters Vote Cent Leave Likely Westminster Email View Remain Yougov Referendum Result
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