The October Surprise May Be Arriving Shortly

The idea was born out of fear in Ronald Reagan’s campaign that President Jimmy Carter would manage to win the release of 52 hostages who had been held captive in Iran for nearly a year, providing the embattled president with a significant diplomatic success. Reagan campaign manager Bill Casey publicly warned that Carter might be planning such an “October surprise,” and the campaign urged its friends in the intelligence and military communities to flag any movements that suggested a release was in the works. Lawmakers ultimately concluded in 1993 that there was “little or no credible evidence of communication between the 1980 Reagan campaign and the government of Iran.” But in his definitive biography of Reagan, author Max Boot looked at new documents about the movements of Bill Casey and the subsequent dealings between the Reagan administration and Iran to assert that the evidence of this theory was “substantial and credible if still circumstantial.” Other October surprises that did take place have been costly. Just eight years ago, FBI Director James Comey’s decision to reopen the Hillary Clinton email investigation was exactly the story her campaign did not need. With most voters thinking he’s too old to be president, a highly public stumble could turn that belief into a serious demand for someone else to take his place.” So when you read of the remarkable “stability” of the 2024 race, the relatively minor movement in the polls, the reasonable assertions that issues like immigration, inflation or abortion will be decisive, just keep in mind that if past is prologue, we may still be in for a surprise.