Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why
2 years, 6 months ago

Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why

LA Times  

People pass Nordstrom Rack in downtown Los Angeles on March 15. Many other leaders of businesses, small and large, as well as workers, are bracing for harder times, with fears stoked by the Federal Reserve’s plans for more fat interest rate increases to combat high inflation. “We’re skating on the edge of recession, especially with the Fed bringing out these big guns,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at the financial market research firm Fwdbonds. But looking at BofA customers’ savings deposits and checking account balances, Tinsley said, “households continue to have high buffers relative to before the pandemic.” For John Barone, 58, the difference between where he was on the eve of the Great Recession and today is like night and day. “I think they’re seeing it like the worst of two worlds — either stagflation or recession,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services.

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History of this topic

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely
4 months, 1 week ago

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely

Live Mint  

Not long ago recessions seemed to strike America roughly once a decade. But because the world economy, asset markets and America’s politics are all fragile, it may yet have nasty and unpredictable consequences. An American recession would land another blow on vulnerable parts of the global economy by curbing demand for their exports. But after over a decade of cheap …

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Why the recession still isn’t here
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Why the recession still isn’t here

Live Mint  

Steady hiring continues to fuel consumer spending and, in turn, an economic expansion unlike any the U.S. has seen. “Last year, at the first sign of higher rates, people ran for the hills, so it seems like the consumer is more battle-hardened now," he said. “If you keep interest rates at this level, there will be folks who just can’t …

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year
1 year ago

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year

NPR  

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year Enlarge this image toggle caption Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images The Federal Reserve signaled it's probably done raising interest rates to curb inflation and the central bank could start cutting rates next year. "We're seeing inflation making real progress," Fed chairman Jerome Powell told reporters …

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?
1 year ago

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?

Hindustan Times  

Wall Street is buzzing with concerns as top banking executives, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and Jane Fraser of Citigroup, testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Soaring inflation has plagued the nation, decreasing from 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in October 2023 but still exceeding the Fed's …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 2 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

US Fed remains confident in preventing recession, says official
1 year, 2 months ago

US Fed remains confident in preventing recession, says official

Live Mint  

The Federal Reserve is on track to tackle US inflation without pushing the country into a damaging recession, a senior official on the bank's rate-setting committee said Tuesday. "We feel like we're on track for a soft landing," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told a conference in North Dakota, using a popular term to describe tackling inflation while avoiding a …

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 5 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined …

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?
1 year, 6 months ago

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?

ABC  

Stephen Hawking, the scientific genius who solved some of the deepest secrets of our universe, summed up the fundamental problems facing modern economists. Rates and jobs part ways Not so long ago, in time before we were all sent home, the "natural rate" of unemployment was considered to be around 5 per cent. Inflation didn't immediately take off after Australia's …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The government’s report Thursday that the economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate last quarter signaled that one of the most-anticipated recessions in recent U.S. history has yet to arrive. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The economy's direction has confounded the Fed's policymakers and …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted

LA Times  

Over the last year, the Federal Reserve has raised its key short-term rate eight times, causing many kinds of consumer and business loans, including auto loans, to become more expensive. A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a …

Fed’s rate hikes likely to cause a recession, research says
1 year, 10 months ago

Fed’s rate hikes likely to cause a recession, research says

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Can the Federal Reserve keep raising interest rates and defeat the nation’s worst bout of inflation in 40 years without causing a recession? The perception that the central bank will need to keep raising borrowing costs was reinforced by a government report Friday that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge accelerated in January after several months of declines. …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 10 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The second consecutive quarter of economic growth that the government reported Thursday underscored that the nation isn’t in a recession despite high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fastest pace of interest rate hikes in four decades. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, …

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism
1 year, 11 months ago

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism

Live Mint  

Real-time indicators and surveys point to the health of consumer spending and business investment. Make UK’s survey this week showed that manufacturers’ investment plans have held up in recent months, with executives planning to pump money into new products and energy efficiency. What’s really noticeable at the moment is confidence is as bad as the beginning of lockdown, yet the …

Can US avoid a recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises
1 year, 11 months ago

Can US avoid a recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — For months, the outlook for the U.S. economy has been a mostly bleak one: Inflation hitting a four-decade high, consumer spending weakening, interest rates surging. These trends are raising expectations that the Fed might manage to engineer an often-elusive “soft landing,” whereby the economy slows but doesn’t go into reverse and unemployment rate rises slightly but stays low. …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?
2 years, 1 month ago

EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the July-September quarter, the government reported Thursday, underscoring that the United States is not in a recession despite distressingly high inflation and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March …

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession
2 years, 3 months ago

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The last time the Federal Reserve faced inflation as high as it is now, in the early 1980s, it jacked up interest rates to double-digit levels — and in the process caused a deep recession and sharply higher unemployment. “We think we can avoid the very high social costs that Paul Volcker and the Fed had to bring …

"I am very worried about this," Elizabeth Warren says while talking inflation on CNN
2 years, 3 months ago

"I am very worried about this," Elizabeth Warren says while talking inflation on CNN

Salon  

Senator Elizabeth Warren appeared on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday morning to talk inflation concerns with host Dana Bash. During the segment, Warren made it clear that she's "very worried" about the way the scales are tipping. There is nothing in raising the interest rates, nothing in Jerome Powell's tool-bag, that deals directly with those, and he has …

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter
2 years, 4 months ago

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter

ABC  

The United States economy has unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declining, raising speculation the economy is on the cusp of a recession. Key points: Prices for groceries, petrol and other basics increased at the fastest pace since 1981 Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in …

US not yet in recession and 4 other takeaways from the Fed
2 years, 4 months ago

US not yet in recession and 4 other takeaways from the Fed

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Jerome Powell delivered a tough message at the start of a news conference Wednesday: Inflation is way too high, and the Federal Reserve is laser-focused on taming it with higher borrowing costs. With the Fed’s benchmark interest rate now at a level that’s believed to neither stimulate nor restrain growth, Powell said the pace of rate hikes could …

US economy shrinks for a second quarter, fuelling recession fears
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy shrinks for a second quarter, fuelling recession fears

Al Jazeera  

The fall in US GDP comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, as Chair Jerome Powell says growth needs to slow. The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, raising chances of a recession, as decades-high inflation undercut consumer spending and Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes stymied business investment and housing demand. The report illustrates how …

As Fed tightens, economists worry it will go too far
2 years, 5 months ago

As Fed tightens, economists worry it will go too far

Live Mint  

Economists increasingly expect the Federal Reserve, in its efforts to push down inflation, to raise rates enough to trigger a recession, with many worrying the central bank will go too far. “Fiscal and monetary policy was left too loose for too long and now the Fed is playing catch-up and this always comes with a chance of overshoot," said James …

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023
2 years, 5 months ago

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023

News 18  

A report by Nomura Holdings Inc revealed many major economies will enter recessions over the next 12 months. Nomura said the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and the US will fall into recession in the research note published by Rob Subbaraman and Si Ying Toh. In the US, Nomura predicted a shallow recession but a long one …

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost
2 years, 5 months ago

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost

Firstpost  

According to America’s National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is ‘a significant decline in economic activity’ that is widespread and lasts several months. That means not only shrinking GDP but also declining incomes, employment, industrial production and retail sales Chaotic stock markets, sky-high interest rates and the pain of inflation have left one question at the top of Americans’ …

Fed’s aggressive rate hikes raise likelihood of a recession
2 years, 6 months ago

Fed’s aggressive rate hikes raise likelihood of a recession

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pledged to do whatever it takes to curb inflation, now raging at a four-decade high and defying the Fed’s efforts so far to tame it. “But it’s going to be hard to avoid it.’’ The Fed itself acknowledges that higher rates will inflict some damage, though it doesn’t foresee a recession: On …

EXPLAINER: Just how high is the risk of another recession?
2 years, 6 months ago

EXPLAINER: Just how high is the risk of another recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation is at a 40-year high. That said, Farooqi cautioned, “the economy faces headwinds.” Among the signs that recession risks are rising: High inflation has proved far more entrenched and persistent than many economists — and the Fed — had expected: Consumer prices rose 8.6% last month from a year earlier, the biggest annual 12-month jump since 1981. …

This is how a higher Fed rate could affect your finances
2 years, 6 months ago

This is how a higher Fed rate could affect your finances

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Record-low mortgages are long gone. The result is increasingly higher borrowing costs as the Fed fights the most painfully high inflation in four decades and ends a decades-long era of historically low rates. Mortgage rates don’t necessarily move up in tandem with the Fed’s rate increases. For users of credit cards, home equity lines of credit and other …

Recession is likely says chief economists at ING, Rabobank, ABN Amro
2 years, 7 months ago

Recession is likely says chief economists at ING, Rabobank, ABN Amro

NL Times  

The Netherlands can expect a loss of prosperity and a possible recession on the horizon. There are still numerous caveats, such as how quickly the gas supply from Russia will be stopped, whether there will be an interest rate hike from the European Central Bank, and how the pandemic is developing in China. "The big question is whether the interest …

EXPLAINER: Recession fears grow. But how high is the risk?
2 years, 7 months ago

EXPLAINER: Recession fears grow. But how high is the risk?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation is at a 40-year high. And when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a news conference last week, he reinforced the central bank’s determination to do whatever it might take to curb inflation, including raising interest rates so high as to weaken the economy. “Recession risks are low now but elevated in 2023 as inflation could …

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?
2 years, 7 months ago

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Around the world, warning signs of a recession are flashing. “We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists warned last month, staking out the more bearish position on Wall Street. Bank of America, in the still-grim-but-less-dire camp, said the mood in financial markets has been “recessionary.” Goldman Sachs is among the more optimistic of …

Should I worry about a recession? What Californians should know
2 years, 8 months ago

Should I worry about a recession? What Californians should know

LA Times  

Filling up has been claiming an ever-larger share of Californians’ paychecks this year. Noting the long commutes that typify the state, Shulman said, “California’s obviously more sensitive to what’s going on now because of gas prices.” For people who have no alternative to driving — such as the commuters forced by high housing costs to live far away from their …

Recession risk is rising, economists say
2 years, 8 months ago

Recession risk is rising, economists say

Live Mint  

Economists see a growing risk of recession as the relentlessly strong U.S. economy whips up inflation, likely bringing a heavy-handed response from the Federal Reserve. “Risk of a recession is rising due to the series of supply shocks cascading throughout the economy as the Fed lifts rates to address inflation," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. On …

If the economy is booming, why is there also fear of recession ahead of the 2022 election?
2 years, 8 months ago

If the economy is booming, why is there also fear of recession ahead of the 2022 election?

ABC  

Put your hand up if you remember "the recession we had to have". According to Dudley, if the Fed wants to contain runaway prices — which at 8 per cent is a 40-year high — it is going to have to raise interest rates to a point that triggers a stock market rout and forces unemployment higher. On cue, St …

The labor shortage could lead to a recession next year
2 years, 10 months ago

The labor shortage could lead to a recession next year

CNN  

Editor’s Note: Gad Levanon is the chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute. So with the central bank expected to raise rates next month, barring a major impact on the US economy from the war in Europe, the question remains: Can the Fed contain inflation without triggering a recession? In the second half of 2022, the Federal Reserve may find …

Opinion: Why we shouldn’t be so worried about runaway inflation in the US
3 years, 8 months ago

Opinion: Why we shouldn’t be so worried about runaway inflation in the US

CNN  

Editor’s Note: Dana Peterson is an executive vice president and chief economist at The Conference Board. So, as households shift spending away from goods and back to in-person services when the pandemic subsides later this year, these supply chain woes — and the high costs associated with them — should fade. Meanwhile, industries employing many low-wage workers, including hotels, restaurants …

The recession is technically over but for wages and jobs, the recovery is a long way away
4 years ago

The recession is technically over but for wages and jobs, the recovery is a long way away

ABC  

It's a big bounce back, undeniably, but we're not out of the woods yet. The 3.3 per cent boost to Australia's economic growth from July to September is stronger than most anticipated, but keep in mind the base it's coming off: a 7 per cent fall in the prior three months, as COVID-19 health restrictions shut down large tracts of …

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