The coronavirus economic ‘disaster’ scenario: Stagflation
4 years, 10 months ago

The coronavirus economic ‘disaster’ scenario: Stagflation

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The Federal Reserve has already slashed interest rates by a half-point to counteract a possible coronavirus-induced economic slowdown. People are dismissing it as an old threat from the ’70s that won’t happen again, but you could see it come back,” said Nancy Davis, chief investment officer of Quadratic Capital Management and portfolio manager of the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF. Supply shock could lead to higher prices Davis told CNN Business that she’s worried about an eventual spike in consumer prices from supply chain disruptions in China due to the coronavirus outbreak. “If you are an employee at Walmart and you decide you’re going to stay home due to coronavirus worries, there could be pressure to raise wages,” Davis said. The Fed could now do a reverse Operation Twist to stabilize the yield curve, Davis said – the difference between long-term rates and short-term rates.

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History of this topic

Impending economic crisis will dwarf coronavirus crisis, says credit insurer Allianz
2 years, 2 months ago

Impending economic crisis will dwarf coronavirus crisis, says credit insurer Allianz

NL Times  

The looming economic crisis will make the coronavirus crisis look like nothing, according to credit insurer Allianz Trade. Rarely have so many negative facts come together simultaneously,” Johan Geeroms, director of risk underwriting in the Benelux for Allianz, said in a press statement. And, partly due to the 10 percent increase in the minimum wage the government announced for next …

From the Great Moderation to anxiety over Great Stagflation
2 years, 4 months ago

From the Great Moderation to anxiety over Great Stagflation

Live Mint  

The world economy is undergoing a radical shift. This period is usually explained by central banks’ move to credible inflation-targeting policies after the loose monetary policies of the 1970s and governments’ adherence to relatively conservative fiscal policies. In both cases, inflation initially remained low, given demand shocks, and loose monetary, fiscal and credit policies prevented deflation. Central banks are thus …

Worry about stagflation, a flashback to ‘70s, begins to grow
2 years, 7 months ago

Worry about stagflation, a flashback to ‘70s, begins to grow

Associated Press  

It was the dreaded “S word” of the 1970s. For Americans of a certain age, it conjures memories of painfully long lines at gas stations, shuttered factories and President Gerald Ford’s much-ridiculed “Whip Inflation Now” buttons. “This time, it is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time.. It’s a phenomenon — stagflation — that the world has …

Explained | How are fears of stagflation impacting markets?
2 years, 7 months ago

Explained | How are fears of stagflation impacting markets?

The Hindu  

The story so far: Authorities worldwide, particularly central bankers, are feverishly trying to formulate the appropriate set of policies to ensure that inflation, currently running at multi-decade highs in some advanced economies including the U.S., is cooled without triggering a recession. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told The New York Timeslast month that he foresaw a period in the …

Worry about stagflation, a flashback to ‘70s, begins to grow
2 years, 7 months ago

Worry about stagflation, a flashback to ‘70s, begins to grow

Associated Press  

It was the dreaded “S word” of the 1970s. For Americans of a certain age, it conjures memories of painfully long lines at gas stations, shuttered factories and President Gerald Ford’s much-ridiculed “Whip Inflation Now” buttons. Last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen invoked the word in remarks to reporters: “The economic outlook globally,” Yellen said, “is challenging and uncertain, and …

Germany is on the brink of a winter recession
3 years ago

Germany is on the brink of a winter recession

CNN  

London CNN Business — Germany is teetering on the brink of recession this winter as supply bottlenecks and a wave of new coronavirus cases hobble the economy. “Ongoing supply bottlenecks and the fourth wave of the coronavirus are noticeably slowing down the German economy,” Timo Wollmershäuser, head of forecasts at Ifo, said in a statement. “The strong post-pandemic recovery that …

'Whiff of stagflation' hangs over the global economy as prices rise
3 years, 3 months ago

'Whiff of stagflation' hangs over the global economy as prices rise

Daily Mail  

The world is facing a dangerous bout of 'stagflation' as the economic recovery slows and prices rise, experts have warned. Sail on: Despite the slowdown, the world's largest container ship Ever Ace is on its maiden voyage, and is pictured at Felixstowe on Sunday Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, warned that this 'whiff of stagflation' – where economic …

Flashing lights: The Hindu Editorial on sliding economy and cash transfers
3 years, 7 months ago

Flashing lights: The Hindu Editorial on sliding economy and cash transfers

The Hindu  

The RBI’s latest monthly bulletin has just confirmed what many economists and anecdotal evidence have been pointing to — a sharp backslide in economic momentum. In an article on the State of the Economy, RBI officials including Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra have flagged the ‘demand shock’ inflicted by the ferocious second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. And the previously …

RBI expected to hold rates this week as Covid cases rise
3 years, 9 months ago

RBI expected to hold rates this week as Covid cases rise

India Today  

The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to keep key interest steady on Wednesday amid a surge in COVID-19 cases in the country, but may revise its inflation projections higher. "We expect the MPC to come up with another dovish pause on Wednesday, especially with Covid-19 cases rising," said Indranil Sengupta, an economist at Bank of America Securities. However, …

Economic impact of coronavirus will hit next year, experts say
4 years, 1 month ago

Economic impact of coronavirus will hit next year, experts say

Dutch News  

Despite the slight drop in the unemployment rate this week, and signs of a speedier economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis, the big hit will be felt in the second quarter of next year, according to experts. In total, 102 banking, legal and investment experts took part in a survey on the likely impact of the crisis carried out by …

World economy: What else could go wrong before 2020 is done
4 years, 4 months ago

World economy: What else could go wrong before 2020 is done

Live Mint  

The world economy’s rebound from the depths of the coronavirus crisis is fading, setting up an uncertain finish to the year. Adding 1.4 million jobs in August was “a big step in the right direction,” said Ryan Sweet, head of monetary policy research at Moody’s Analytics. But the economy needs to maintain that kind of pace, he said, and “without …

Summertime sadness: Resurgent coronavirus dims economic recovery hopes
4 years, 5 months ago

Summertime sadness: Resurgent coronavirus dims economic recovery hopes

Live Mint  

The virus is the summer house guest from hell. If you add that all up together it’s not a pretty picture.” At the same time, as governments face new flare-ups and reimpose full or partial lockdowns, the prospects for a brisk global economic rebound later in the year have dimmed, according to economists and executives. While the virus-stricken world is …

Oil Prices Slip as Coronavirus Case Surge Dents Fuel Demand Hopes
4 years, 5 months ago

Oil Prices Slip as Coronavirus Case Surge Dents Fuel Demand Hopes

News 18  

Oil prices dipped on Thursday as a surge of coronavirus infections around the globe raised fears a rebound in fuel demand would stutter just as major oil producers are set to raise output in August. Both benchmark contracts hovered around unchanged levels after having jumped on Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration reported a sharp, unexpected 10.6 million barrel …

Fed chief says coronavirus surge starting to dent U.S. economic recovery
4 years, 5 months ago

Fed chief says coronavirus surge starting to dent U.S. economic recovery

The Hindu  

The surge in U.S. coronavirus cases and the restrictions aimed at containing it have begun to weigh on the economic recovery, the head of the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, pointing to an apparent pullback by consumers and a slowdown in the rehiring of furloughed workers, particularly by small businesses. “We have seen some signs in recent weeks that the …

Fed says US economic recovery will be closely linked to course of coronavirus
4 years, 5 months ago

Fed says US economic recovery will be closely linked to course of coronavirus

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Get our free Inside Washington email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The fate of the US economy is “deeply and significantly” …

Oil falls 2% on U.S.-China tensions, rising virus cases
4 years, 5 months ago

Oil falls 2% on U.S.-China tensions, rising virus cases

Live Mint  

Oil prices dropped nearly 2% on Monday despite a weaker U.S. dollar, as rising coronavirus cases and tensions between the United States and China clouded the outlook for oil demand's recovery. "In lack of larger fundamental news, oil prices are following the overall macro trends, behaving as a 'risky asset' and being traded lower when safe-haven assets strengthen," said Bjornar …

Rising coronavirus infections threaten US economic recovery
4 years, 5 months ago

Rising coronavirus infections threaten US economic recovery

Associated Press  

BALTIMORE — Rising coronavirus infections across dozens of states are threatening the U.S. economic recovery, forcing businesses and consumers to freeze spending and keeping the unemployment rate stubbornly high. A separate report showed that more than a million Americans sought unemployment benefits last week – a sign that companies continue to cut jobs as the virus slashes through the heavily …

Oil falls as growing coronavirus cases stoke fuel demand worries
4 years, 6 months ago

Oil falls as growing coronavirus cases stoke fuel demand worries

Hindustan Times  

Crude prices fell on Friday as the resurgence of the coronavirus globally and in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, dimmed the prospects of fuel demand recovery. Gasoline demand will be closely watched as the United States heads into its July 4 holiday weekend as many Americans are expected to hit the road. Brent crude futures were down …

Wall Street dips as virus fears drown out economy hopes
4 years, 6 months ago

Wall Street dips as virus fears drown out economy hopes

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Wall Street careened through all the forces that have pushed and pulled it through the week, at first rising on Friday amid hope for the economy and then falling on worries about worsening coronavirus levels in some states, all before ending with modest losses. Also exacerbating volatility was Friday’s simultaneous expiration of contracts for stock options and …

The coronavirus recession is like no other — and it risks becoming a chronic problem
4 years, 7 months ago

The coronavirus recession is like no other — and it risks becoming a chronic problem

ABC  

Forget what you know about recessions, this one is very different — and it may be chronic. That's not to say we're about to experience years of economic contraction or "negative growth" as economists like to say, but it's going to remain tough going for many Australians for years. This is the combination of two overbearing forces: an economy built …

Coronavirus Will Leave Lasting Scars On Global Economy; Emerging Markets & Developing Economies To Be Worst Hit: World Bank
4 years, 7 months ago

Coronavirus Will Leave Lasting Scars On Global Economy; Emerging Markets & Developing Economies To Be Worst Hit: World Bank

ABP News  

New Delhi: The World Bank has said that the Coronavirus pandemic and strict lockdown measures taken to contain its transmission will leave a lasting effect on the global economy particularly the emerging market and developing economies, in its analysis of the situation. World Bank Group President David Malpass emphasised the need for comprehensive policies and indicated that 60 million people …

Govt measures to deal with coronavirus impact 'very positive', says former RBI governor Bimal Jalan
4 years, 7 months ago

Govt measures to deal with coronavirus impact 'very positive', says former RBI governor Bimal Jalan

Firstpost  

Former Reserve Bank Governor Bimal Jalan on Thursday described the initiatives taken by the government to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 as “very positive” and hoped that these would help in containing the decline in growth New Delhi: Former Reserve Bank Governor Bimal Jalan on Thursday described the initiatives taken by the government to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 as …

Trump's economic advisers keep trying to downplay expectations for post-coronavirus economy: columnist
4 years, 7 months ago

Trump's economic advisers keep trying to downplay expectations for post-coronavirus economy: columnist

Raw Story  

President Donald Trump has promised that the stock market will surge even bigger and better than ever, but his staff is trying to downplay the predictions to manage expectations. But we’re still very, very — we’re doing great.” A Washington Post column by The Fix's JM Rieger cited an interview with Trump's trade adviser Peter Navarro who spoke to ABC. …

US economy won’t recover fully until there’s a coronavirus vaccine, says Federal Reserve chairman
4 years, 7 months ago

US economy won’t recover fully until there’s a coronavirus vaccine, says Federal Reserve chairman

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The chairman of the …

Coronavirus recovery is just around the corner — if the stock market can be believed
4 years, 8 months ago

Coronavirus recovery is just around the corner — if the stock market can be believed

ABC  

No-one has a crystal ball. The experts don't always get it right, but the main Australian stock market index right now is much higher than it was back in March, when the shock of coronavirus hit households across the country. However, when you consider the Centrelink queues, Treasury's forecast of an unemployment rate reaching 10 per cent, talk of Depression-like …

Coronavirus Outbreak: US economy shrinks at 4.8% in January-March quarter, first-time in six years; recession fear looms
4 years, 8 months ago

Coronavirus Outbreak: US economy shrinks at 4.8% in January-March quarter, first-time in six years; recession fear looms

Firstpost  

The US economy shrank at a 4.8 percent annual rate last quarter as the coronavirus pandemic shut down much of the country and began triggering a recession that will end the longest expansion on record Washington: The US economy shrank at a 4.8 percent annual rate last quarter as the coronavirus pandemic shut down much of the country and began …

Recession sign: US economy shrinks 4.8 percent in first quarter
4 years, 8 months ago

Recession sign: US economy shrinks 4.8 percent in first quarter

Al Jazeera  

The plunge in first-quarter US GDP will likely pale in comparison to second quarter damage from coronavirus lockdowns. We knew the United States economy had likely taken a significant hit in the first three months of this year as coronavirus lockdowns started sweeping the nation in March. US economic growth as measured by gross domestic product contracted 4.8 percent on …

Evidence of coronavirus' effect on US economy grows more ominous, will shrink 7% in 2020, predict economists
4 years, 8 months ago

Evidence of coronavirus' effect on US economy grows more ominous, will shrink 7% in 2020, predict economists

Firstpost  

Retail sales—a primary driver of the US economy—are almost surely suffering further during April because business shutdowns will have been in effect for the entire month, compared with just half of March Washington: Evidence of the coronavirus’ devastating impact on the US economy has been steadily emerging, and the signs have grown ominous. Retail sales—a primary driver of the US …

Coronavirus recession now expected to be deeper and longer
4 years, 9 months ago

Coronavirus recession now expected to be deeper and longer

LA Times  

The Pike in Long Beach -- normally crowded with weekend shoppers, diners and moviegoers -- is almost completely deserted on Saturday, March 21. “You may well see significant rises in unemployment and significant declines in economic activity, but there can also be a good rebound on the other side of that,” he said in a rare television appearance last week. …

Coronavirus downturn has been rapid and sharp, says former Fed head Janet Yellen
4 years, 9 months ago

Coronavirus downturn has been rapid and sharp, says former Fed head Janet Yellen

Firstpost  

Talking of the employment sector, Yellen said she was expecting higher percentages of unemployment due to the coronavirus outbreak. Former US Federal Reserve chairperson Janet Yellen has said the economic downturn due to the coronavirus pandemic has been “rapid and sharp” and is “different” than any the country has faced. Speaking at an online seminar hosted by the Brookings Institution, …

What to make of the US’s $2 trillion coronavirus bailout
4 years, 9 months ago

What to make of the US’s $2 trillion coronavirus bailout

Al Jazeera  

In spite of the negatives and the risks, the stimulus package represents a real political and philosophical change. On Wednesday, the United States Senate overwhelmingly approved a $2 trillion rescue bill to address the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy. When he was asked who would watch where the money went, Trump said, “I’ll be the oversight.” The …

Coronavirus will almost certainly put Dutch economy in recession: Planning Office
4 years, 9 months ago

Coronavirus will almost certainly put Dutch economy in recession: Planning Office

NL Times  

The outbreak of the coronavirus will almost certainly result in a recession for the Dutch economy, according to Pieter Hasekamp, director of central planning office CPB. "We are still calculating, but a recession is almost inevitable," he said in an interview with the Telegraaf. In early March the CPB forecast said that the Dutch economy will grow 1.4 percent this …

Coronavirus deals a death blow to U.S. economic expansion
4 years, 9 months ago

Coronavirus deals a death blow to U.S. economic expansion

The Hindu  

No one knows how long it will last or how much it will hurt. But the U.S. economy is either sliding into a recession for the first time since 2009 or is already in one — a sudden victim of the coronavirus outbreak. The vast changes deemed necessary to defeat the virus — people and companies no longer engaging with …

Are we staring at a global recession as economic cost of novel coronavirus pandemic?
4 years, 9 months ago

Are we staring at a global recession as economic cost of novel coronavirus pandemic?

India Today  

Two major global ratings agencies have downgraded India's GDP growth rate for 2020 in two days. Moody's on Tuesday marginally cut down India's GDP growth rate for 2020 from its February projection of 5.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent. The country had just registered a seven-year low GDP growth rate of 4.7 per cent in September-December 2019 quarter when …

White House Requests $1 Trillion In Economic Stimulus To Fight Coronavirus Effects
4 years, 9 months ago

White House Requests $1 Trillion In Economic Stimulus To Fight Coronavirus Effects

NPR  

White House Requests $1 Trillion In Economic Stimulus To Fight Coronavirus Effects AILSA CHANG, HOST: One trillion dollars - that is how much money the Trump administration is asking Congress to give them to fight the economic devastation brought on by the coronavirus. They include chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley, congressional correspondent Kelsey Snell and, last but certainly not least, …

Global recession is here, according to S&P
4 years, 9 months ago

Global recession is here, according to S&P

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The coronavirus outbreak has plunged the world’s economy into a global recession, according to S&P Global. “The initial data from China suggests that its economy was hit far harder than projected, though a tentative stabilization has begun,” said S&P Global’s Chief Economist Paul Gruenwald. “Europe and the United States are following a similar path, as …

Coronavirus jolts global stock markets
4 years, 9 months ago

Coronavirus jolts global stock markets

Deccan Chronicle  

LONDON: The coronavirus panic is jolting stock markets, with steep drops in major indexes grabbing the public’s attention. This sudden flight to safety is causing havoc in markets for bonds, currency and loans to a degree that hasn’t been seen since the financial crisis of a dozen years ago. Francesco Papadia, who oversaw the European Central Bank’s market operations during …

The economic impact of coronavirus and the response so far, in nine charts
4 years, 9 months ago

The economic impact of coronavirus and the response so far, in nine charts

Live Mint  

New Delhi: Poor cash flows, rising leverage, and stretched valuations of firms had analysts worried about an impending global recession since last year. The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus across the world threatens to morph into a global recession now even as governments and central banks scramble to limit the shock. For India, as for most other countries, the …

Economic paralysis: Coronavirus slams brakes on China economy
4 years, 9 months ago

Economic paralysis: Coronavirus slams brakes on China economy

Al Jazeera  

Everyone knew the coronavirus outbreak was hurting China’s economy. Urban investment and retail sales also fell sharply for the first time on record, reinforcing views that the epidemic may have cut China’s economic growth in half in the first quarter. Industrial output fell by a much worse-than-expected 13.5 percent in January-February from the same period a year earlier, the weakest …

Coronavirus fallout could take Australian economy decade to recover from, KPMG says
4 years, 9 months ago

Coronavirus fallout could take Australian economy decade to recover from, KPMG says

ABC  

Australia's economy could take almost a decade to recover from the coronavirus fallout even after being cushioned by the Federal Government's $17.6 billion stimulus, according to a report out this morning. Key points: KPMG said in the best case scenario, Australia's economic growth would decline by 0.9 per cent in 2020 This, even with the Federal Government's stimulus measures, amounts …

Fed Makes A Dramtic Move During Coronavirus Fallout
4 years, 9 months ago

Fed Makes A Dramtic Move During Coronavirus Fallout

NPR  

Fed Makes A Dramtic Move During Coronavirus Fallout The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near-zero and announced a set of programs to help blunt the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic spreading throughout the world. HORSLEY: In this case, though, Steve, the Fed's action, which was designed to be reassuring, may have simply underscored, for a lot of investors, …

Trump tells people to stop panic buying amid coronavirus pandemic: 'Relax. We're doing great'
4 years, 9 months ago

Trump tells people to stop panic buying amid coronavirus pandemic: 'Relax. We're doing great'

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Coronavirus: From US to India, how nations are tackling economic fallout
4 years, 9 months ago

Coronavirus: From US to India, how nations are tackling economic fallout

India Today  

Policymakers and government leaders have taken a range of approaches to deal with the economic fallout from the coronavirus. Japan's central bank may also take steps to ensure companies hit by the coronavirus outbreak do not face a financial squeeze before the end of the current fiscal year in March, according to sources familiar with the central bank's thinking. BRITAIN …

Coronavirus outbreak could cost global economy up to $2 trillion, cause recession in some countries, says UNCTAD
4 years, 9 months ago

Coronavirus outbreak could cost global economy up to $2 trillion, cause recession in some countries, says UNCTAD

Firstpost  

The coronavirus outbreak could cost the global economy up to $2 trillion this year, the UNCTAsaid, warning that shock from the epidemic will cause a recession in some countries and depress global annual growth to below 2.5 percent United Nations: The coronavirus outbreak could cost the global economy up to $2 trillion this year, the UN’s trade and development agency …

Two economic scenarios for the impact of coronavirus on the US (opinion)
4 years, 10 months ago

Two economic scenarios for the impact of coronavirus on the US (opinion)

CNN  

Editor’s Note: Gad Levanon is a vice president at The Conference Board, where he heads the Labor Markets Institute. Then, starting in May or June, if the virus-related fear subsides, the US economy could enjoy a bounce-back, as consumers resume their typical spending behavior and businesses fix their supply chains and resume production at normal capacity. If consumers and businesses …

How coronavirus and an oil war have pushed the stock market from boom to bust
4 years, 10 months ago

How coronavirus and an oil war have pushed the stock market from boom to bust

ABC  

It has been the longest winning streak in history. There have been a few blips along the way — the European debt crisis in 2012 and the Brexit vote gave Wall Street a dose of the wobbles and just 18 months ago, investors began unloading stocks as fears of a global slowdown followed a series of US interest rate hikes. …

Stocks Plunge Amid Coronavirus Outbreak, Triggering Wall Street Trading Halt
4 years, 10 months ago

Stocks Plunge Amid Coronavirus Outbreak, Triggering Wall Street Trading Halt

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 7.8%, its steepest drop since the financial crisis of 2008, as a free-fall in oil prices and worsening fears of fallout from the spreading coronavirus outbreak seize markets. AP’s earlier story follows below: Coronavirus fears and a crash in oil prices sent a shudder through financial markets Monday, with stocks plummeting …

Coronavirus could trigger global recession: Rabobank
4 years, 10 months ago

Coronavirus could trigger global recession: Rabobank

NL Times  

If the new coronavirus Covid-19 turns into a global pandemic, economists at Rabobank foresee an economic recession in large parts of the world, including the Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Italy, and the United States. "This economic crisis could become even worse if it turned into a financial crisis, for example when the number of bankruptcies increase sharply worldwide," the Rabobank economists …

Who will save the world from a coronavirus recession?
4 years, 10 months ago

Who will save the world from a coronavirus recession?

Al Jazeera  

Why a shock US central bank rate cut may not be enough to save the global economy from the coronavirus outbreak. Growth could halve this year to 1.5 percent, the OECD warned in its worst-case scenario for the outbreak, a growth rate generally considered to indicate a recession. Rajiv Biswaz, executive director and Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at IHS Markit, adds …

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