Interest rates, exporters and Reserve Bank intervention: There's a lot at stake as the Australian dollar weakens
1 week, 4 days ago

Interest rates, exporters and Reserve Bank intervention: There's a lot at stake as the Australian dollar weakens

ABC  

Is the Reserve Bank close to stepping into the currency market to support the Australian dollar and, if so, what does this mean for millions of Australians? Reserve Bank can intervene to support the dollar The Reserve Bank last intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2007-08 during the global financial crisis, when it bought Australian dollars. "This was in response to evidence that large, rapid depreciations in the Australian dollar had led to excessive volatility in the exchange rate," the Reserve Bank noted. And, as mentioned, currency market anxiety around the Australian dollar falling below 60 US cents and a lack of "confidence" in the dollar at that level could also introduce some disorder to the market. If the currency market remains calm, but the Australian dollar keeps falling, another policy option for the RBA would be to hold off cutting interest rates.

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History of this topic

Why is the Australian dollar falling and what could it mean for you?
2 days, 10 hours ago

Why is the Australian dollar falling and what could it mean for you?

ABC  

The Australian dollar is around its lowest level since 2020 against the US currency, continuing its move towards 61 US cents with a sharp fall over the weekend. "While the strong US dollar has left no prisoners, the Aussie softness has been exacerbated by tariff angst, fears over economic growth in China and the repricing in domestic interest rate expectations," …

Aussie Dollar Traders Ramp Up Bearish Bets With 2022 Low in View
5 days, 7 hours ago

Aussie Dollar Traders Ramp Up Bearish Bets With 2022 Low in View

Live Mint  

-- Traders are increasingly positioning for the Australian dollar to fall to levels last seen in 2020 as economic data weaken and increased US tariffs look more likely. Option trading volume on the Australian dollar versus the greenback on Wednesday surged to the highest in three weeks as the pair hovered not far above 0.6170, its 2022 low, according to …

Australian dollar now at risk of plummeting to pandemic-era lows, analysts say
2 weeks ago

Australian dollar now at risk of plummeting to pandemic-era lows, analysts say

ABC  

The Australian dollar has fallen sharply, hitting a multi-year low of 61.88 US cents — a level not seen since October, 2022. "The problem with the Australian dollar appears to be that there was a real wobble in the Chinese currency into New Year's Eve," InTouch Capital Markets senior FX analyst Sean Callow said. The US dollar has performed strongly …

Dollar firms as US rates outlook dominates
3 weeks, 1 day ago

Dollar firms as US rates outlook dominates

Live Mint  

By Rae Wee SINGORE, - The dollar was on the front foot on Tuesday as the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates remained top of investors' minds, leaving other currencies struggling near milestone lows. The Bank of Japan last week kept rates on hold and stayed vague on when it could next raise rates, an outcome which was in stark …

The Australian dollar could be heading to a 20-year low, on risks of China, Trump and slow growth
3 weeks, 1 day ago

The Australian dollar could be heading to a 20-year low, on risks of China, Trump and slow growth

ABC  

You wouldn't be an economics forecaster for quids. A weak Chinese economy, American threats to impose punishing trade tariffs, a poor medium-to-longer-term outlook for our key exports and a sluggish economy are likely to keep the Australian dollar under pressure through 2025, threatening to send it into the 50 US cents. The upside of heading down The Australian dollar is …

The RBA is preparing for all economic scenarios, including an interest rate hike
1 month ago

The RBA is preparing for all economic scenarios, including an interest rate hike

ABC  

The Reserve Bank may have dropped the phrase "not ruling anything in or out" in its interest rates commentary, but that does not mean an interest rate hike is completely out of the question. That is because, as Dr Hunter explained, it would mean the RBA's key policy goal of achieving its mid-point annual inflation target of 2.5 per cent …

Major blow for Aussies just before Christmas as Reserve Bank makes interest rate decision
1 month ago

Major blow for Aussies just before Christmas as Reserve Bank makes interest rate decision

Daily Mail  

Australian home borrowers have been dealt a severe blow just before Christmas with the Reserve Bank denying them a rate cut. Governor Michele Bullock gave a strong hint rate cuts could be months away with inflation still too high, ahead of an election next year. Australian home borrowers have been dealt a severe blow just before Christmas with the Reserve …

PETER VAN ONSELEN: Which of these statements about the Australian economy is true? 1) Australia has won the war on inflation 2) Interest rates are too high 3) The country is run by a bunch of muppets
3 months, 3 weeks ago

PETER VAN ONSELEN: Which of these statements about the Australian economy is true? 1) Australia has won the war on inflation 2) Interest rates are too high 3) The country is run by a bunch of muppets

Daily Mail  

I used to enjoy a good muppet show as a kid, but the muppet show we'll see tomorrow when the latest inflation data gets revealed will be far less edifying. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will see through tomorrow's headline inflation figure And that underlying figure will be higher than the top end of the Reserve Bank's target range. The underlying …

These numbers are the clues to the Reserve Bank's puzzle: when will interest rates go down?
3 months, 3 weeks ago

These numbers are the clues to the Reserve Bank's puzzle: when will interest rates go down?

ABC  

Perhaps no question matters more to Australians worn down by three years of relentless cost pressures: when will the Reserve Bank cut interest rates? But not too much – which is why when inflation shoots high, the Reserve Bank raises interest rates to suppress demand by making it more expensive to borrow and spend. But the Reserve Bank prefers a …

How the US Federal Reserve rate cut could impact the race for the White House between Harris and Trump
3 months, 3 weeks ago

How the US Federal Reserve rate cut could impact the race for the White House between Harris and Trump

ABC  

The US Federal Reserve has cut rates in a dramatic move that will have a major impact on the American economy and could help determine who occupies the White House for the next four years. By cutting rates by half a per cent, the Fed has signalled it thinks the battle against the high inflation that has plagued the US …

Why is the US cutting interest rates? What does it mean for Australia?
3 months, 4 weeks ago

Why is the US cutting interest rates? What does it mean for Australia?

ABC  

The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates overnight in an important move for the global economy. Economists predicted the Fed would want to start cutting rates before inflation hits 2 per cent because there's a long lag time between interest rate movements and their effect on the economy. It means the Reserve Bank's cash rate target, which sits at …

Why the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut rates before year's end
4 months ago

Why the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut rates before year's end

ABC  

Until just a few weeks ago, it seemed as though the developed world had pulled off what once was thought to be the impossible. And yet, despite this mounting evidence of a critical economic slump, there remains a rump of high-profile economists openly criticising the Reserve Bank of Australia's reluctance to push interest rates above 5 per cent. Parliament House …

PETER VAN ONSELEN: Jim Chalmers' excuses for Australia's inflation crisis spectacularly unravel - with two key stats easily blowing apart the garbage Treasurer is peddling
5 months, 2 weeks ago

PETER VAN ONSELEN: Jim Chalmers' excuses for Australia's inflation crisis spectacularly unravel - with two key stats easily blowing apart the garbage Treasurer is peddling

Daily Mail  

Treasurer Jim Chalmers wants you to believe that rising inflation isn't his fault. Under pressure: Jim Chalmers' excuses for Australia's 'sticky' inflation crisis are unravelling He wants you to focus on the fact inflation is lower now than when Labor came to power. In other words Australia's rising inflation - a quarterly adjusted figure of 3.8 per cent - is …

Why the Reserve Bank of Australia should hold off on interest rate hikes in August
5 months, 2 weeks ago

Why the Reserve Bank of Australia should hold off on interest rate hikes in August

ABC  

There's a curious thing about openness, communication and transparency. Because, despite recently showing a real reluctance to want to push interest rates even higher, she and her Reserve Bank of Australia colleagues have for the past two years made it abundantly clear that they were committed to hammering inflation into submission. Money markets right now have just a one-in-five chance …

Australian dollar tumbles on fears of Chinese economic slowdown
5 months, 3 weeks ago

Australian dollar tumbles on fears of Chinese economic slowdown

ABC  

After climbing to a six-month high two weeks ago, the Australian dollar has since tumbled, as fears mount about the economic health of our largest trading partner, China. "Until the Chinese government makes a material stimulus, and puts some actual money behind this idea of recovery in the property market, the iron ore price is going to remain subdued," Bell …

Stock market today: Asian stocks slip, while Australian index tracks Wall St rally to hit record
5 months, 4 weeks ago

Stock market today: Asian stocks slip, while Australian index tracks Wall St rally to hit record

Associated Press  

Asian stocks were mostly lower Wednesday even as investors wagered that the Federal Reserve will come ahead with a cut to interest rates, while Australia’s benchmark hit a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average leaped 1.9% to 40,954.48, and the Nasdaq composite lagged with a gain of 0.2% to 18,509.34, as the stars dimmed for some of the year’s …

Why further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank won't fix Australia's inflation problem
8 months, 1 week ago

Why further interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank won't fix Australia's inflation problem

ABC  

If only there was a diagnosed condition called One Size Fits All syndrome. That's helped push one measure of price rises — core inflation — higher on a quarterly measure. Quick as a flash, that's sparked a renewed demand from some sections of the economics commentariat for further rate hikes to smash the evils of inflation once and for all. …

Did the Reserve Bank hit the brakes too hard? Why Australia's economy is heading into reverse
10 months, 1 week ago

Did the Reserve Bank hit the brakes too hard? Why Australia's economy is heading into reverse

ABC  

The softening-up process is already underway. There's now every possibility the GDP numbers could tip negative, giving the first real indication that Australia's economy is shrinking under the weight of 13 interest rate hikes in quick succession. The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.35 per cent last November, but it hasn't fully flowed through to the whole economy. Prepare …

RBA governor Michele Bullock says she doesn't agree with IMF that Australia needs higher interest rates
11 months ago

RBA governor Michele Bullock says she doesn't agree with IMF that Australia needs higher interest rates

ABC  

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says she doesn't agree with the International Monetary Fund that Australia should be lifting interest rates even higher. Earlier this week, the RBA board decided to keep Australia's cash rate steady for another six weeks, at 4.35 per cent, saying there were "encouraging signs" that inflation was falling as required. RBA keeps interest rates steady …

How will the ASX, Wall Street, other share markets and the Australian dollar perform in 2024?
1 year ago

How will the ASX, Wall Street, other share markets and the Australian dollar perform in 2024?

ABC  

Key market and currency watchers say the Australian share market is likely to outperform other major financial markets in 2024 and the Australian dollar will trade higher against the greenback with or without interest rate cuts. Key points: The ASX 200 could reach a record high in 2024 The Australian dollar is likely to continue to rise But a recession …

Commonwealth Bank forecasts massive interest rate cuts for Australians: Here's when the country's biggest bank predicts they will begin
1 year ago

Commonwealth Bank forecasts massive interest rate cuts for Australians: Here's when the country's biggest bank predicts they will begin

Daily Mail  

The Commonwealth Bank is now forecasting six interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 - starting in September next year as Australian inflation moderates faster than predicted. Mr Halmarick is basing his prediction of 150 basis points of rate cuts, in 2024 and 2025, on inflation falling back to the top of the Reserve Bank's two to three per cent …

Reserve Bank leaves interest rates on hold in an early Christmas present for borrowers - but here's why Aussies with mortgages should be worried
1 year, 1 month ago

Reserve Bank leaves interest rates on hold in an early Christmas present for borrowers - but here's why Aussies with mortgages should be worried

Daily Mail  

Australian borrowers have been warned to expect another rate hike even though the Reserve Bank has this month left interest rates on hold. The cash rate is already at a 12-year high of 4.35 per cent after the RBA last month raised rates for the 13th time in 18 months. KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said the Reserve Bank statement …

I'm a finance expert: Here are five things Aussies can do to get rich in 2024
1 year, 1 month ago

I'm a finance expert: Here are five things Aussies can do to get rich in 2024

Daily Mail  

Australians can still make money in 2024 despite the Reserve Bank's aggressive interest rate rises and fears of a recession. Despite the gloom, Finder investment analyst Kylie Purcell said next year offered possibilities that didn't require taking huge risks during a cost of living crisis. Despite the gloom, Finder investment analyst Kylie Purcell said next year offered possibilities that didn't …

The health of China's economy could determine whether a recession is on the cards in Australia
1 year, 4 months ago

The health of China's economy could determine whether a recession is on the cards in Australia

ABC  

The Australian dollar has fallen from 68.8 US cents on June 15 to 64 US cents this week. "China's central bank allows the yuan to trade +/-2 per cent each day either side of its fixing rate," Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow told The Drum. Why a fall in the Australian dollar may signal good news for mortgage-holders Photo …

Australian dollar ‘at risk of a slide’ as China’s economic troubles deepen
1 year, 5 months ago

Australian dollar ‘at risk of a slide’ as China’s economic troubles deepen

ABC  

The Australian dollar hit a nine-month low against the US dollar Monday. Key points: The Australian dollar has hit a nine-month low There are growing concerns about the health of China's economy Global investors are on edge as another major Chinese investment firm shows signs of stress It fell to 64.59 US cents before recovering in afternoon trade to 64.8 …

The Australian dollar is going into hibernation, and it's because of interest rates and commodity prices
1 year, 5 months ago

The Australian dollar is going into hibernation, and it's because of interest rates and commodity prices

ABC  

Fashion is a fleeting phenomenon. And our interest rates remained much higher than the rest of the developed world, which also attracted vast amounts of global capital seeking out a decent return. Our relatively lower interest rates will weigh on the Australian dollar as speculative money looks to the US and Europe for better returns. Why a fall in the …

Why New Zealand is beating Australia in the race that no-one wants to win — to a full-blown recession
1 year, 9 months ago

Why New Zealand is beating Australia in the race that no-one wants to win — to a full-blown recession

ABC  

It takes around three hours and 10 minutes to cross the Ditch — the 2,225 kilometre stretch of the Tasman Sea that separates Sydney and Wellington. While the Reserve Bank of Australia called a halt in rate hikes — leaving the cash rate at 3.6 per cent — the Kiwis doubled down, literally, with a double rate hike of 0.5 …

Could interest rates in Australia fall after the collapse of two US banks?
1 year, 10 months ago

Could interest rates in Australia fall after the collapse of two US banks?

ABC  

Tuesday was an extraordinary day for bond market traders as they witnessed extreme price movements — and this matters for millions of Australians because the price movements reflect where interest rates are heading. Why Silicon Valley Bank collapsed Photo shows A company sign next to a parking lot displays the numbers 3003 and letters svb The sudden demise of Silicon …

Why RBA interest rate hikes could end by September – but brace for at least one more
1 year, 10 months ago

Why RBA interest rate hikes could end by September – but brace for at least one more

ABC  

Tuesday's 10th successive Reserve Bank interest rate hike is the culmination of a process that has added $1,080 to the monthly cost of payments on a $600,000 variable mortgage. I've calculated this increase in payments — which amounts to $12,960 per year — by comparing payments on the National Australia Bank's base variable mortgage rate before the Reserve Bank started …

As crisis calls over financial distress climb, treasurer and finance minister say they know rate rises are hurting
1 year, 10 months ago

As crisis calls over financial distress climb, treasurer and finance minister say they know rate rises are hurting

ABC  

Federal government ministers have acknowledged an increase in distress calls to crisis support hotlines over cost of living, but say the fight to rein in inflation must continue. Key points: The federal government has acknowledged a spike in financial distress calls to crisis hotlines Reserve Bank governor Phillip Lowe says mental health concerns of Australians weighs heavily on him The …

Australians feeling the sting of inflation and rising interest rates could soon face a recession — and more pain
1 year, 10 months ago

Australians feeling the sting of inflation and rising interest rates could soon face a recession — and more pain

ABC  

What happens on the other side of trouble? The National Accounts, which also measure inflation with what's called the GDP "price deflator", has the cost of living rising at 9.1 per cent. AMP senior economist Diana Mousina puts the "recession probability in the next two years as high, around 40 per cent". "That's almost half the 4.7 per cent annual …

See when Australia's biggest banks stopped paying proper interest on your savings – and what you can do about it
1 year, 10 months ago

See when Australia's biggest banks stopped paying proper interest on your savings – and what you can do about it

ABC  

Whenever interest rates went up in the past, I used to get told it wasn't all bad news. "This time last year, the four major banks, nobody, no bank was offering more than 0.3 per cent on their savings account," she told the Australian Financial Review this month. The web comparison site Canstar finds the average big bank introductory rate …

The brutal truth of Australia's monetary policy: Higher interest rates are coming, and it will hurt some more than others
1 year, 10 months ago

The brutal truth of Australia's monetary policy: Higher interest rates are coming, and it will hurt some more than others

ABC  

No one wants to be in a dentist's waiting room. "If people start to think inflation's going to be 7 or 8 per cent the year after next then we're going to have all sorts of trouble." "We are getting more concerned, though, that the RBA is raising rates too far in response to inflation which is a lagging indicator …

Unemployment rate jumps from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent in January figures
1 year, 10 months ago

Unemployment rate jumps from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent in January figures

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate has increased from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent according to last month's figures, in seasonally adjusted terms. "January is the most seasonal time of the year in the Australian labour market, with people leaving jobs but also getting ready to start new jobs or return from leave," Mr Jarvis said. David Bassanese, the chief economist …

Businesses are fuelling inflation with unnecessary price hikes — and struggling Australians are paying for it
1 year, 11 months ago

Businesses are fuelling inflation with unnecessary price hikes — and struggling Australians are paying for it

ABC  

Higher prices, that is. The Reserve Bank summed this up in this week's Monetary Policy Decision: "Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures in a number of areas of the economy." "There's no doubt that corporations have taken advantage of the supply chain problems and the desperation of consumers …

Reserve Bank warns of at least two more interest rate rises in coming months, as the economic outlook worsens
1 year, 11 months ago

Reserve Bank warns of at least two more interest rate rises in coming months, as the economic outlook worsens

ABC  

Australia's cash rate has hit 3.35 per cent, after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates for the ninth time in a row — and signalled more interest rate pain ahead. That was the view of traders in the money market, who had priced loans on the basis that the bank's cash rate would climb just 0.35 points further after being …

Reserve Bank raises interest rates, 'expects that further increases will be needed'
1 year, 11 months ago

Reserve Bank raises interest rates, 'expects that further increases will be needed'

ABC  

The Reserve Bank has raised interest rates for the ninth meeting in a row, taking the cash rate target to its highest level since September 2012. Key points: The RBA's cash rate target is now at 3.35 per cent That is the highest level of the cash rate since September 2012 The RBA governor indicates that further rate rises are …

The risk of Australia entering recession has just risen
1 year, 11 months ago

The risk of Australia entering recession has just risen

ABC  

There are early signs Australia's economy is buckling under the strain of inflation and cost-of-living pressures. "As regards consumer spending specifically, a sharp curtailment due to higher interest rates and weaker house prices remains the major downside risk for the economy this year." Economists predict that despite recent drops in retail sales and house prices, the Reserve Bank will likely …

After being forced to play catch-up in the 'war on inflation', Australia's banking masters have subtly switched course
2 years, 2 months ago

After being forced to play catch-up in the 'war on inflation', Australia's banking masters have subtly switched course

ABC  

For the past six months, it's been all action and precious little talk. A month back, Reserve Bank boss Phillip Lowe sparked a rally on global stock markets when he throttled back on the pace of interest rate rises from 0.5 percentage points back to 0.25, the first major central bank to do so. The inflation we nurtured A few …

Australia has a problem with inflation, and that likely means more interest rate hikes to come
2 years, 2 months ago

Australia has a problem with inflation, and that likely means more interest rate hikes to come

ABC  

Australia has a problem with inflation. It's a judgement call The Reserve Bank's inflation fighting job would be a heck of a lot easier if there wasn't such a time lag between cause and effect — that is, raising interest rates and seeing prices come down. But the Reserve Bank's key objective of lowering inflation back to the target range …

Australian dollar sinks to 29-month low on 'rising risk' of global recession, ASX drops 1.4 per cent
2 years, 3 months ago

Australian dollar sinks to 29-month low on 'rising risk' of global recession, ASX drops 1.4 per cent

ABC  

Australian shares have fallen significantly, tracking heavy losses on Wall Street as worries about higher interest rates and a potential recession in the United States hurt investor sentiment. Key points: The Australian dollar peaked at 76.6 US cents in April It has since dropped 17 per cent as global recession fears mount The US Fed is tipped to lift interest …

The Aussie dollar is dropping against the US currency, but it’s not all bad news
2 years, 3 months ago

The Aussie dollar is dropping against the US currency, but it’s not all bad news

ABC  

Paul O'Brien's costs are rising and it's not just supply chain issues, shipping delays and increasing inflation that we're all becoming accustomed to that is the cause. "It's been a case of all systems go for the US dollar," said Westpac's head of a foreign exchange strategy, Richard Franulovich. "The US dollar has been strong across the board this year …

As Reserve Bank lifts interest rates again, more households seek relief from Foodbank
2 years, 3 months ago

As Reserve Bank lifts interest rates again, more households seek relief from Foodbank

ABC  

Demand for food relief from Foodbank has increased by 15 per cent since the Reserve Bank of Australia started lifting interest rates in May. Key points: RBA's smaller-than-expected rate hike has surprised economists However, more rate rises are expected And more households are feeling severely financially strained from rising rates, rising inflation and falling real wages "Around half the people …

Australian central bank lifts cash rate to 9-year high 2.6%
2 years, 3 months ago

Australian central bank lifts cash rate to 9-year high 2.6%

Associated Press  

CANBERRA, Australia — Australia’s central bank on Tuesday boosted its benchmark interest rate for a sixth consecutive month to a nine-year high of 2.6%. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s increase of a quarter percentage point to the cash rate was smaller than those at recent monthly meetings. Philip Lowe said the smaller rise reflected that fact that the “cash rate …

Interest rate updates: Reserve Bank lifts cash rate by 0.25 of a percentage point — as it happened
2 years, 3 months ago

Interest rate updates: Reserve Bank lifts cash rate by 0.25 of a percentage point — as it happened

ABC  

Given Inflation is being pushed so much by constrained supply and our slumped dollar, how much of a difference to inflation will further rates make? If we kept rates steady in Australia while the US Fed kept pushing rates higher in the US, the Australian dollar would lose even more value against the US dollar, and that could see a …

Reserve Bank slows the pace of interest rate rises with 0.25 percentage point increase
2 years, 3 months ago

Reserve Bank slows the pace of interest rate rises with 0.25 percentage point increase

ABC  

The Reserve Bank has elected to slow the breakneck pace of interest rate rises, with the sixth straight hike being 0.25 of a percentage point instead of the widely expected 0.5. Key points: The RBA's cash rate target has risen a further 0.25 of a percentage point to 2.6 per cent It is the first time since May that the …

Australia central bank lifts cash rate to 2.35% in 5th hike
2 years, 4 months ago

Australia central bank lifts cash rate to 2.35% in 5th hike

Associated Press  

CANBERRA, Australia — Australia’s central bank on Tuesday boosted its benchmark interest rate for a fifth consecutive month to a seven-year high of 2.35%. Philip Lowe said there were more rate hikes ahead at monthly board meetings as directors attempt to reduce inflation to a target band of 2% to 3%. “The further increase in interest rates today will help …

Why Australian banks are slashing fixed-rate home loans despite successive interest rate rises
2 years, 5 months ago

Why Australian banks are slashing fixed-rate home loans despite successive interest rate rises

ABC  

It may have gone largely unnoticed among the screeching sirens and the roar of emergency vehicles — but interest rates actually fell last week. In the rush to deliver the bad news on a hugely telegraphed double hike in the official cash rate — which the big four banks passed on in full on their variable rates — most news …

IMF downgrades 'gloomy' economy as inflation and rate jitters continue, but ASX trades up
2 years, 5 months ago

IMF downgrades 'gloomy' economy as inflation and rate jitters continue, but ASX trades up

ABC  

The global economy is in "gloomy and uncertain" territory as rate hikes and inflation hit nations including Australia, according to the International Monetary Fund. It comes as new figures are released in Australia that show price hikes here are continuing, with inflation now at 6.1 per cent annually. That may be because the market had already factored in the possibility …

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