Brent crude outlook bearish on oversupply, grim oil demand; 2025 average pegged at $74 after hitting $80 in 2024
Live MintOil prices are likely to be constrained near $70 a barrel in 2025 as weak demand from China and rising global supplies are expected to cast a shadow on OPEC+-led efforts to shore up the market. Brent crude would average $74.33 per barrel in 2025, down from a forecast of $74.53 in November, marking an eighth straight downward revision. Most of the poll respondents expect the oil market to be in a surplus next year, with analysts from JPMorgan predicting that supply will outpace demand to the tune of 1.2 million barrels per day. State of the global economy: The confluence of easing monetary policies amid global slowdown fears, rising geopolitical tensions impacting financial markets and energy trade flows, and the shaping of energy policies following the 2024 elections in more than 70 nations could make 2025 a pivotal year for the global economy and energy markets. Analysts project oil prices to hover between US$70/bbl and US$80/bbl in 2025, with a potential uplift of US$10/bbl if geopolitical tensions escalate Leading global investment bankers Morgan Stanley and HSBC revised down their expectations for an oil market surplus next year and forecast a Brent crude price of $70 per barrel, following a decision by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to delay and slow plans for a higher crude output.