Opinion | Use a bigger dose of fiscal stimulus to combat this crisis
Live MintThere have been several occasions when the Reserve Bank of India has had to confront the dilemma of tackling sliding growth and rising inflation at once. In March, governor Shaktikanta Das said that monetary policy would play an “avant-garde” role and do “whatever it takes” to protect growth from the impact of covid-19. After the global financial crisis of 2009, generous monetary and fiscal stimulus had pushed the economy’s growth above its potential and created a high-inflation environment. RBI has not given a numerical forecast of inflation, but stated that it is expected to nudge down in the second half of the fiscal year due to a favourable base effect. Recognizing this, Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji noted in a Centre for Economic Policy Research discussion paper, “When uncertainty is extreme, prudent central banks should be guided by what they observe, and not by unreliable forecasts.” Crisil expects retail inflation to average 4.7% in 2020-21, with the second half at 3.4%.