Recession odds surge in online betting markets
3 weeks, 2 days ago

Recession odds surge in online betting markets

Raw Story  

The early optimism surrounding President Donald Trump's economic policies has faded and now odds are surging in online betting markets that there will be a recession this year. Bettors on online market Kalshi as of this writing are projecting a 42 percent chance of recession this year, which is a surge of 12 percentage points in just the last two days, as bettors only had odds of a recession at 30 percent to start the month. The story is the same at Polymarket, where odds of a recession this year have surged to 39 percent as of this writing, a nine percentage point increase from two days ago. A large combination of Trump policies, including the widespread slashing of government workers and steep international tariffs, as well as external factors such as the spread of bird flu, have caused downgrades in economic forecasts and have sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging by more than 1,400 points since the start of trading on Monday.

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History of this topic

‘Bloodbath’: US stock market sheds $1.75tn after Trump’s recession remarks
2 weeks, 2 days ago

‘Bloodbath’: US stock market sheds $1.75tn after Trump’s recession remarks

Al Jazeera  

The United States’ stock market has shed more than $1.7 trillion in value after US President Donald Trump declined to rule out the possibility the economy could enter a recession this year. ‘Indecisiveness, confusion and mixed messaging’ New York Stock Exchange trader Peter Tuchman described Monday’s trading session as a “bloodbath”. “We had a roller coaster last week, we had …

Stocks plunge further amid Trump's downplay of 'period of transition' for economy
2 weeks, 3 days ago

Stocks plunge further amid Trump's downplay of 'period of transition' for economy

Raw Story  

President Donald Trump warned there would be a "period of transition" amid his trade war with Mexico, Canada and China. "The S&P 500 fell more than 3% and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled nearly 5% as shares of big tech companies extended their selloff," the Wall Street Journal reported. "The risks of higher inflation as a result of a broader tariff …

Recession ahead? Why the US economy is on shaky ground under Trump
2 weeks, 3 days ago

Recession ahead? Why the US economy is on shaky ground under Trump

Firstpost  

The US economy is facing growing recession fears as key indicators signal trouble ahead. There’s going to be no recession in America.” Lutnick also defended Trump’s aggressive trade policies, arguing that they would ultimately benefit the US economy by “unleashing American wealth across the world.” What role do tariffs and spending cuts play? Goldman Sachs recently raised its recession probability …

US markets open lower day after Trump declines to rule out recession
2 weeks, 3 days ago

US markets open lower day after Trump declines to rule out recession

India Today  

The US stock market’s sell-off is worsening Monday as Wall Street questions how much pain President Donald Trump is willing for the economy to endure in order to get what he wants. It takes a little time.” Trump says he wants to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, among other reasons he’s given for tariffs. He sees a …

'Recession is actually good': Trump critics predict how he'll spin falling economy
3 weeks, 2 days ago

'Recession is actually good': Trump critics predict how he'll spin falling economy

Raw Story  

President Donald Trump will deliver an address to Congress on Tuesday evening at the same time that economists are predicting his economic moves are making it more likely that the U.S. is headed toward a recession. Washington Post economics columnist Heather Long wrote on X, "Trump is steering the economy toward a recession with these massive tariffs and swift government …

'Recession is coming': Critics outraged as Trump vows steep tariffs imminent
3 weeks, 3 days ago

'Recession is coming': Critics outraged as Trump vows steep tariffs imminent

Raw Story  

President Donald Trump says he's done delaying the massive tariffs he planned to enact on America's neighbors, telling reporters Monday: "No room left for Mexico or for Canada. "You can watch the stock market tank in the bottom corner of Fox's broadcast as Trump talks about tariffs," wrote independent journalist Aaron Rupar. "Trump just made a new announcement about tariffs …

Betting markets eye expansion after predicting Trump's win
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Betting markets eye expansion after predicting Trump's win

Salon  

On election eve, Arlene Battishill, a retired history professor and political analyst known as "Dr. Arlene Unfiltered" to her social media followers, picked up a bottle of champagne, confident in the data across different states that showed a potential Kamala Harris win. Related FBI raids home of Polymarket CEO The results, supporters say, bolster the case for prediction markets as …

Bets on ‘Trump Put’ Send Stocks, Bitcoin Higher: Markets Wrap
4 months ago

Bets on ‘Trump Put’ Send Stocks, Bitcoin Higher: Markets Wrap

Live Mint  

Beneficiaries of the incoming administration’s looser regulation and business-friendly stance put forth strong showings this week. Stocks gained while Bitcoin crushed doubters and the dollar extended gains into an eighth week, the currency’s longest run of the year. Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee sees room for more gains in small-caps and cyclicals given President-elect’s plans for deregulation and general “animal spirits.” He …

Trump Claims Stock Market Will Crash While Dow Jones Soars
7 months, 1 week ago

Trump Claims Stock Market Will Crash While Dow Jones Soars

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING Donald Trump’s vision of an American economy “nightmare” was spoiled by a well-timed Fox News ticker on Thursday. During a press conference at his New Jersey golf course on Thursday, the Republican candidate for president predicted that the stock market would spiral if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected to office this November. While the conservative news …

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum
1 year, 3 months ago

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum

The Hindu  

Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it. Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, now expects a U.S. recession in the first half of 2024, meaning the group is negative on the dollar and likes …

Investors overseeing $5 trillion bet economic recession can be avoided: Report
2 years, 3 months ago

Investors overseeing $5 trillion bet economic recession can be avoided: Report

Hindustan Times  

Professional investors are loading up on bets that an economic recession can be avoided despite all the warnings to the contrary. Investors overseeing $5 Trillion bet economic recession can be avoided: Report Money managers have been favoring economically sensitive equities, such as industrial companies and commodity producers, according to a study from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on positioning by mutual …

American billionaires ‘lose $93bn in a day’ as new inflation figures hit markets hard
2 years, 6 months ago

American billionaires ‘lose $93bn in a day’ as new inflation figures hit markets hard

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. In the exchanges’ worst single day since the …

Despite Widespread Pain, Economy Remains Strong Selling Point For Trump
4 years, 7 months ago

Despite Widespread Pain, Economy Remains Strong Selling Point For Trump

NPR  

Despite Widespread Pain, Economy Remains Strong Selling Point For Trump Enlarge this image toggle caption Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images Almost 30 million people are now collecting unemployment benefits. As Republicans focus on "opportunity" at their convention Tuesday, the economy remains one of the president's strongest selling points. Although the unemployment rate that year never …

Dow drops below 20,000, US stocks head for worst week since 2008
5 years ago

Dow drops below 20,000, US stocks head for worst week since 2008

Al Jazeera  

Goldman Sachs says US economy could contract 24 percent in April-June quarter, and unemployment could peak at 9 percent. United States stock markets turned negative in afternoon trading on Wall Street, putting all three major US indexes on track for their worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. A flood of cheap money from central banks and signs of momentum …

Wall Street dazed and confused after worst day since 1987; coronavirus pandemic sparks fear of global recession
5 years ago

Wall Street dazed and confused after worst day since 1987; coronavirus pandemic sparks fear of global recession

Firstpost  

The suspension of professional sports games, cancelled conventions and half-empty restaurants has raised fears—not about whether the longest US economic expansion on record is ending—but about how deep a now presumed recession will be. San Francisco: As trading ended on Thursday in Wall Street’s worst day for three decades, shell-shocked investors had no idea how much further the market was …

Dow jumps 250 points on hopeful signals about trade
5 years, 7 months ago

Dow jumps 250 points on hopeful signals about trade

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The Dow soared Monday and US stocks scored their third straight rally as investors grew increasingly optimistic about a potential resolution to the the trade war and a limit to its economic fallout. Although President Donald Trump has repeatedly fanned the trade war flames, he tweeted Sunday that the United States and China were “talking.” …

There is a 1-in-3 chance of a recession by 2020 thanks to Trump’s trade wars
5 years, 7 months ago

There is a 1-in-3 chance of a recession by 2020 thanks to Trump’s trade wars

Salon  

Monday’s 400-point Dow slide was far from the worst single day stock market performance under President Donald Trump. As Politico reported on Tuesday, economists at large institutions are increasingly worried that a recession will hit before the 2020 presidential election — and they put the blame squarely on Trump’s trade policies. Our official model has the probability of a recession …

Trump is driving us toward a big recession: It will be ghastly — but is it deliberate?
5 years, 7 months ago

Trump is driving us toward a big recession: It will be ghastly — but is it deliberate?

Salon  

These are tough times for independent journalism. That bottomless slagheap of propaganda convinced Trump’s base that the steadily improving economy of the Barack Obama administration was “American carnage,” requiring a return to the stewardship of Republicans who had been responsible for a $1.4 trillion deficit, the collapse of the stock market, more than 800,000 jobs lost in a single month …

Wall Street is betting the president won’t let stocks collapse
5 years, 9 months ago

Wall Street is betting the president won’t let stocks collapse

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Investors are once again growing worried about the US-China trade war. “If the pain gets too great in the economy and stock market, he will have to find a face-saving solution,” said Carter Mack, president and co-founder of JMP Group, a San Francisco-based investment bank. “He understands that if the stock market and economy crash …

Stock market woes raise a nagging fear: Is a recession near?
6 years, 3 months ago

Stock market woes raise a nagging fear: Is a recession near?

Associated Press  

BALTIMORE — Fears of a recession have been mounting with the U.S. stock market appearing to be headed for its worst December since 1931 — during the Great Depression. Plenty of economic gauges suggest that far from being derailed by a stock market that’s set to suffer its first annual loss in a decade, the $20 trillion U.S. economy is …

Economic Pessimism Sends Stock Indexes Down More Than 4 Percent
13 years, 7 months ago

Economic Pessimism Sends Stock Indexes Down More Than 4 Percent

NPR  

Economic Pessimism Sends Stock Indexes Down More Than 4 Percent Enlarge this image toggle caption Jin Lee/AP Jin Lee/AP Update at 4:09 p.m. Dow Plunges 513 Points: At closing, the Dow finished 513 points lower. As the Los Angeles Times puts it, today the market came down from yesterday's U.S. rally as pessimism "about the economy overtook investors around the …

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