Wall Street is ignoring the omens of recession — here’s why
SalonThe world is on the brink of a recession, if all the breathless headlines are to be believed. The answer to my students’ question has a lot to do with profits and interest rates, but also “animal spirits.” Moving in mysterious ways Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500, Wall Street’s two main gauges for the U.S. economy, hit record highs in July and have been hovering near them ever since. But beyond these mysterious movements there are two primary factors that push overall stock prices up and down: profits and interest rates. When interest rates fall, it costs less to run the company since businesses pay less to service their debts, boosting profits. Lower interest rates also boost the share prices of companies that don’t borrow money because they increase the present value of their future profits.