Revise India’s inflation gauge but handle the revision with care
1 day, 4 hours ago

Revise India’s inflation gauge but handle the revision with care

Live Mint  

The remarkable insights into the changing pattern of household consumption thrown up by the latest Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-24 are of special relevance for a wide range of policy decisions. In recent months, Union ministers have expressed qualms over RBI’s apparent unwillingness to look through inflation driven by food prices in its formulation of monetary policy. In December, the central bank under former governor Shaktikanta Das held rates steady on the grounds of what economists call the ‘second-order’ effects of high food prices on topline inflation. Once retail spending on these items becomes positive rather than zero for larger numbers, a truly representative expense basket will have to assign these items some weight, potentially resulting in higher CPI inflation readings. The base-year updation and reworked composition of the CPI based on the HCES for 2023-24 will give us a more accurate measure of inflation and enable better monetary policy formulation by the central bank.

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History of this topic

‘Rate cut not a silver bullet for growth revival’
14 hours, 23 minutes ago

‘Rate cut not a silver bullet for growth revival’

The Hindu  

There is no single silver bullet such as an interest rate cut that can address the economy’s slowdown, and the upcoming Union Budget must revive India’s slowing consumption impulses through multiple measures, including a cut in income taxes and fuel duties, and provide a reforms roadmap to bring growth back to the 7% level, India’s apex industry body’s head said. …

India’s central bank should lead the policy easing cycle that its economy needs
1 day, 22 hours ago

India’s central bank should lead the policy easing cycle that its economy needs

Live Mint  

The coming weeks will see two important policy events. “The hardening of input costs across goods and services and their flow into selling prices needs to be watched carefully," the Indian central bank said in its November review of the economy. This column had argued before the December meeting of the monetary policy committee that there is a compelling reason …

Debate over excluding food inflation from monetary policy reaches MPC
2 weeks, 1 day ago

Debate over excluding food inflation from monetary policy reaches MPC

Live Mint  

Mumbai: Two newly appointed Monetary Policy Committee members have rekindled the discussion started by the Economic Survey on excluding food inflation from the monetary policy framework. The other MPC member Nagesh Kumar too noted that, "Monetary policy, being a demand management tool, has limitations in addressing inflation largely driven by a supply-side shock driving up vegetable prices. In my view, …

Vocal on growth, silent on inflation
2 weeks, 1 day ago

Vocal on growth, silent on inflation

The Hindu  

In November, a Cabinet Minister reportedly stated at a press conference that the Reserve Bank of India should focus on growth and not be concerned with food price inflation. From the data in the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s ‘National Accounts Statistics 2024’, we can see a correlation between the rise in food price inflation from 2019-20 onwards and …

Growth slowdown: Why lay a deeper economic malaise at RBI’s door?
3 weeks, 3 days ago

Growth slowdown: Why lay a deeper economic malaise at RBI’s door?

Live Mint  

Chapter 16 in the Book of Leviticus, Old Testament, enjoins Aaron to organize sacrifices and expiate the sins of all Israelites. Various ministers, government officials and sundry industry representatives have been hinting at RBI culpability in India’s economic slowdown and have called upon its monetary policy committee to cut rates in support of growth. The debate began with this year’s …

Retail inflation slows down in November
3 weeks, 6 days ago

Retail inflation slows down in November

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: With the significant easing of food prices, especially vegetables, India’s retail inflation slowed to 5.48 per cent in November as compared to 6.21 per cent in October. “But the CPI-based headline inflation increased from an average of 3.6 per cent during July-August to 5.5 per cent in September and further to 6.2 per cent in October 2024, the …

Retail inflation slows slightly at 5.48%
3 weeks, 6 days ago

Retail inflation slows slightly at 5.48%

Hindustan Times  

Retail inflation rose to 5.48% last month, a slower pace of increase compared to 6.21% in October, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed on Thursday. Despite the slowing pace of growth in prices, the Consumer Price Index-based rate of retail inflation stayed above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% tolerance level, with two percentage points of …

Retail inflation eases to 5.48% in November from above 6% in October
4 weeks ago

Retail inflation eases to 5.48% in November from above 6% in October

India Today  

India's retail inflation cooled to 5.48% in November, slipping below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance band of 6% after breaching it in October. "High inflation reduces the disposable income in the hands of consumers," Das noted, adding that food inflation could stay elevated through the third quarter of FY25 before easing. Expected revisions could lower food’s weightage by …

​Staying the course: On the RBI and inflation
Trending News
1 month ago

​Staying the course: On the RBI and inflation

The Hindu  

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee, in its latest bi-monthly review, has decided to maintain status quo on the benchmark interest rate of 6.50% for the eleventh consecutive time. India’s retail inflation, after trending below the median 4% target, for the first time in five years, for two months, spiked over September and October, with food prices leading …

'Our job is…': RBI Governor defends policy action amid criticism over lending rates
1 month ago

'Our job is…': RBI Governor defends policy action amid criticism over lending rates

India Today  

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das defended the central bank’s cautious approach to cutting key rates during his address on Friday. In his statement during the Monetary Policy Committee meeting for December, Das highlighted the importance of maintaining economic stability amidst evolving global and domestic challenges. “As a central bank, our job is that of an anchor of stability and confidence, which …

RBI MPC meet: Growth needs a boost, but will inflation hold back rate cut?
Trending News
1 month ago

RBI MPC meet: Growth needs a boost, but will inflation hold back rate cut?

India Today  

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee began its three-day meeting on Wednesday, setting the stage for a critical decision on the repo rate, which will be announced on December 6 at 10 AM. The meeting takes place amid growing calls from experts and leaders for a rate cut to support India’s slowing economic growth. Piyuh Goyal has even …

Is MPC doing enough on inflation? Consumers are divided
1 month ago

Is MPC doing enough on inflation? Consumers are divided

Live Mint  

Mumbai: For the past 30 months, the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee has been fighting hard to bring inflation within its medium-term target of 4%. Nearly half of the total respondents surveyed favoured lower inflation and higher interest rates, and only 22% support the reverse. Governor Shaktikanta Das has repeatedly warned since the last policy that cutting rates …

Food Inflation To Calm Down In Next Few Months, Says Finance Ministry’s Report
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Food Inflation To Calm Down In Next Few Months, Says Finance Ministry’s Report

ABP News  

The finance ministry in its latest economic review for October revealed that food inflation is expected to slowdown in the upcoming months. “Supply disruptions from heavy rains in major producing states contributed to price pressures in tomatoes, onions, and potatoes, while elevated global prices drove up oil and fat inflation,” the ministry in the review stated. The report, released by …

Govt evaluating impact of PDS ration on inflation
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Govt evaluating impact of PDS ration on inflation

Hindustan Times  

New Delhi When Dubai got selected as the host for the World Expo 2020, Baskin Robbins declared it would serve everyone who walked into their outlets in the UAE a free scoop of ice-cream. India offers food grains to nearly 813 million needy people at zero price, or for free, under the National Food Security Act 2013. On Wednesday, officials …

India’s central bank should adhere to its inflation-targeting mandate
Trending News
1 month, 2 weeks ago

India’s central bank should adhere to its inflation-targeting mandate

Live Mint  

Less than four years after the government concluded its review of India’s inflation-targeting regime in April 2021 and opted to keep both its target and nitty-gritty—its target range, indicator, etc—unchanged, its view of inflation targeting seems to be shifting. After commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal and then finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman called for lower interest rates, on Tuesday chief …

Tomatoes, Onions, Gold Driving CPI Inflation Says CEA
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Tomatoes, Onions, Gold Driving CPI Inflation Says CEA

Deccan Chronicle  

Mumbai: Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday said that the recent rise in Consumer Price Index -based inflation is primarily driven by a select few commodities. Nageswaran explained that excluding tomatoes, onions, potatoes, and gold and silver from the CPI calculation reveals a much lower headline inflation rate of just 4.2 per cent for October. While these items …

Nirmala Sitharaman calls for 'affordable' interest rates after Piyush Goyal
Trending News
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Nirmala Sitharaman calls for 'affordable' interest rates after Piyush Goyal

India Today  

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has called for more affordable bank lending rates, joining Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal in highlighting concerns about the cost of borrowing. INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee has kept the repo rate unchanged since February 2023, citing persistent inflation pressures. PIYUSH GOYAL'S REMARKS Last week, Piyush Goyal also …

Inflation behaving more like a magician who tricks you again and again
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Inflation behaving more like a magician who tricks you again and again

New Indian Express  

The main culprit is food inflation, which jumped to 10.87%, largely led by vegetable prices that rose by a staggering 42.18% in October. As Deputy governor Michael Patra noted, inflation will likely encounter a hump in the near months largely due to an adverse base and one-off shocks to prices of vegetables, edible oils and gram. The fact that inflation …

Piyush Goyal wants RBI to cut interest rates. Shaktikanta Das responds
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Piyush Goyal wants RBI to cut interest rates. Shaktikanta Das responds

India Today  

Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal shared his opinion that food price inflation should not play a role in the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decisions. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had earlier warned that inflation risks could rise due to factors like food prices, indicating that a rate cut should not be assumed. RBI GOVERNOR SHAKTIKANTA DAS …

DC Edit | RBI may have to defer rate cut
1 month, 3 weeks ago

DC Edit | RBI may have to defer rate cut

Deccan Chronicle  

Consumer Price Index-based retail inflation has crossed the Reserve Bank of India’s comfort level of four per cent in October at 6.21 per cent, compared to 4.87 per cent in the year ago period. The 14-month high inflation figure in October dashed hopes of a repo rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India during its policy meeting in December. …

‘Absolutely flawed…’: RBI should boost growth with rate cut, says Union Minister Piyush Goyal; Governor Das responds
1 month, 3 weeks ago

‘Absolutely flawed…’: RBI should boost growth with rate cut, says Union Minister Piyush Goyal; Governor Das responds

Live Mint  

The Reserve Bank of India should cut the key benchmark interest rates to boost economic growth and look through the food prices while deciding on monetary policy, Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal said. Growth needs a further impetus,” Piyush Goyal told the news portal, also stating that it's an “absolutely flawed theory” to consider food inflation while …

India trade minister says central bank should cut rates, look through food prices
1 month, 3 weeks ago

India trade minister says central bank should cut rates, look through food prices

Live Mint  

MUMBAI, Nov 14 - India's central bank should cut interest rates to boost economic growth and look through food price while deciding on monetary policy, the trade minister said, the first time a government minister has backed calls to re-examine the nation's inflation targeting framework. Growth needs a further impetus," Piyush Goyal told news channel CNBC TV18 at an event …

Mint Quick Edit | Inflation above 6%: There goes a December rate cut
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Mint Quick Edit | Inflation above 6%: There goes a December rate cut

Live Mint  

Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das’s warning of inflation rising sharply in October has turned out prescient. With the headline reading now above RBI’s 6% upper tolerance limit, the odds of a rate cut in the monetary policy committee’s December meeting look bleak. Though the rate-setting panel recently shifted its monetary policy stance to neutral, it wouldn’t want inflationary …

Why October inflation numbers may delay RBI interest rate cut
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Why October inflation numbers may delay RBI interest rate cut

India Today  

India’s consumer price inflation rose to a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October, breaching the Reserve Bank of India’s target range of 2-6 per cent, driven by high food inflation. Food and beverages inflation stood at 9.7 per cent in October, in which the inflation on vegetables alone was over 42.2 per cent, a 57-month high. “With mixed …

Spectre of food inflation haunts the economy again
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Spectre of food inflation haunts the economy again

New Indian Express  

It appears that the common man will have to further tighten his consumption belt. Government data released Tuesday showed vegetable prices were the main culprit, as they shot up over 42 per cent in October from a year ago—higher than the 36 per cent rise in September. Coupled with oil prices rising 9.51 per cent, fruits, cereals and pulses, food …

India’s retail inflation surges to 6.2% in October
1 month, 3 weeks ago

India’s retail inflation surges to 6.2% in October

The Hindu  

A 10.9% spike in food prices lifted India’s retail inflation to a 14-month high of 6.2% in October, from 5.5% in September, with prices of vegetables and edible oils escalating at a sharp pace not seen in recent years. October’s price rise pace marked a breach of the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance limit for inflation, with rural India …

India’s 14-month high retail inflation fades hope of December rate cut
Trending News
1 month, 3 weeks ago

India’s 14-month high retail inflation fades hope of December rate cut

Live Mint  

New Delhi: India’s retail inflation accelerated in October to its highest in over a year largely due to heated food prices, tempering expectations of a rate cut when the central bank’s monetary policy panel meets early next month. India’s retail inflation also breached the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 2-6% for the first time in over a year—which, …

No relief for Indians, as inflation rise further to 5.81% in October because of food price surge
1 month, 4 weeks ago

No relief for Indians, as inflation rise further to 5.81% in October because of food price surge

Live Mint  

Consumer price inflation in India climbed to a 14-month high of 5.81% in October primarily due to a spike in vegetable and edible oil prices, a Reuters poll of economists predicted, a shade below the central bank's tolerance threshold of 6.0%. Annual retail inflation as measured by the consumer price index likely rose a second straight month to 5.81% in …

Why hasn’t RBI cut policy rates despite its lack of control over food inflation?
2 months ago

Why hasn’t RBI cut policy rates despite its lack of control over food inflation?

Live Mint  

With a 8% fall in stock prices from their peak on 26 September, those who make money from the business of selling stocks seem to be getting jittery. Once RBI cuts the repo rate, the hope is that banks will cut the interest rates at which they lend, people and businesses will borrow more and spend more, and this in …

RBI MPC Oct 2024: Retail Inflation Estimated At 4.5 Per Cent For FY25, Food Prices To Ease In Q4
2 months, 4 weeks ago

RBI MPC Oct 2024: Retail Inflation Estimated At 4.5 Per Cent For FY25, Food Prices To Ease In Q4

ABP News  

RBI MPC October 2024: The Reserve Bank of India ’s Monetary Policy Committee revealed its decision on Wednesday on key rates and decided to maintain the status quo. Governor Shaktikanta Das revealed that the CPI retail inflation for the 2024-25 fiscal year is projected at 4.5 per cent. The inflation figure for the second quarter in the current fiscal year …

Avoid haste on shift to core CPI
4 months, 1 week ago

Avoid haste on shift to core CPI

Hindustan Times  

Should India’s inflation targeting framework target the headline Consumer Price Index or just its core, namely, the non-food non-fuel part? REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo Inflation targeting, at a theoretical level, is supposed to use interest rates to maintain a healthy balance between inflation and growth. Because inflation targeting is a forward-looking exercise — higher interest rates today are expected to contain …

‘Abandoning RBI’s inflation target regime could be risky, counterproductive’
4 months, 2 weeks ago

‘Abandoning RBI’s inflation target regime could be risky, counterproductive’

The Hindu  

The Reserve Bank of India's inflation targeting regime has worked well and need not be abandoned in favour of a more discretionary regime that could be risky and counterproductive, a new research paper has said. The paper titled 'Inflation Targeting In India: A Further Assessment' said the weight of food-price inflation in the CPI inflation basket should be reduced to …

Can the Reserve Bank of India rein in food inflation?
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Can the Reserve Bank of India rein in food inflation?

Hindustan Times  

On August 8, the Reserve Bank of India announced that it had kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% after the end of its monetary policy meeting — it marked the ninth straight meeting of the central bank in which it held rates at the same level. The paper - co-written by deputy governor Michael Debabrata Patra - cautioned …

Food prices can’t be overlooked for inflation targeting, says Das
5 months ago

Food prices can’t be overlooked for inflation targeting, says Das

New Indian Express  

Das clarified that while the Monetary Policy Committee might overlook elevated food inflation if it is deemed temporary, the current situation of sustained high food inflation requires the committee to take it seriously. The Economic Survey, released prior to the Budget, advocated for a revision of the central bank’s inflation targeting framework by excluding food inflation. It argued that India’s …

RBI MPC 2024: RBI can’t ignore food inflation while framing monetary policy: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das
5 months ago

RBI MPC 2024: RBI can’t ignore food inflation while framing monetary policy: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

The Hindu  

Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said that the central bank can not ignore food inflation while formulating monetary policy. Mr Das said with “high share of food in the consumption basket, food inflation pressures cannot be ignored.” Further, the public at large understands inflation more in terms of food inflation than the other components of headline …

Economic Survey on retail inflation: ‘Government and RBI’s intervention helped'
5 months, 2 weeks ago

Economic Survey on retail inflation: ‘Government and RBI’s intervention helped'

Hindustan Times  

The Economic Survey 2024, tabled by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Parliament on Monday stated that despite the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, the Central Government's timely policy interventions and the Reserve Bank of India's price stability measures helped maintain retail inflation at 5.4 per cent. However, in FY24, the central government's timely policy interventions and the Reserve Bank …

Flare-up in vegetable prices stalls overall disinflationary trend: RBI officials
5 months, 3 weeks ago

Flare-up in vegetable prices stalls overall disinflationary trend: RBI officials

The Hindu  

Consumer price inflation rose in June after three consecutive months of moderation due to a spike in vegetable prices halting a disinflationary trend underway in the economy, Reserve Bank of India officials led by deputy governor Michael D. Patra wrote in the July edition of RBI Bulletin. Headline inflation Headline inflation measured by on year changes in the all-India consumer …

Poll shadow over onions
8 months ago

Poll shadow over onions

Hindustan Times  

The Union government has removed the six-month-long ban on onion exports, albeit with the qualification of a minimum export price. Food items account for 39% of India’s food basket and have been the biggest factor for inflation not meeting the RBI’s target of 4% in the recent past. Because most of India’s food inflation problem is related to climate-inflicted supply …

DC Edit | Cautious RBI targets inflation
9 months ago

DC Edit | Cautious RBI targets inflation

Deccan Chronicle  

The Reserve Bank of India-led Monetary Policy Committee has once again kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent. Retail inflation hovered around 5.1 per cent during January and February 2024, which is a marginal decline from 5.7 per cent in December 2023. Food inflation — which is the most important focus area for the world’s populous country …

Both dovish and hawkish
9 months ago

Both dovish and hawkish

Hindustan Times  

The first Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the new fiscal year has kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.5% and retained the stance of monetary policy as focused on the withdrawal of accommodation. RBI believes India’s GDP growth rate and benchmark inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, to be 7% and 4.5%, respectively, in FY25. After all, …

Food inflation keeps RBI worried
9 months ago

Food inflation keeps RBI worried

The Hindu  

The spike in food prices has kept the Reserve Bank of India worried even though overall inflation has moderated to a certain extent. RBI Monetary Policy updates | Policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5%; real GDP growth for FY25 projected at 7% The MPC also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns to …

High food prices prevent swifter fall in inflation to 4% target, says RBI bulletin
9 months, 2 weeks ago

High food prices prevent swifter fall in inflation to 4% target, says RBI bulletin

Live Mint  

Food price pressures are deterring a swifter fall in headline inflation towards the target of 4 per cent, the Reserve Bank of India said in its monthly bulletin for March 2024, released on Tuesday. “Even as inflation is on the ebb with broad-based softening of core inflation, the repetitive incidence of short amplitude food price pressures deters a swifter fall …

Food factor: On the latest retail inflation data
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Food factor: On the latest retail inflation data

The Hindu  

The latest retail inflation data, yet again, underscores how volatile food prices continue to hold hostage not only broader inflation but also the lynchpin of economic growth, namely, personal consumption. While February’s headline Consumer Price Index -based reading remained virtually unchanged from the preceding month, at 5.09%, the pace of food price gains computed from the Consumer Food Price Index …

Inflation still at 5.1%, but food prices rise
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Inflation still at 5.1%, but food prices rise

The Hindu  

India’s retail inflation remained virtually unchanged at 5.09% in February, even as food prices paid by consumers resurged from 8.3% in January to 8.66% spurred primarily by vegetables, which rose at a seven-month high pace of 30.25%. Inflation measured by the Consumer Food Price Index accelerated from 9% in January to 9.2% for urban residents, while rural India experienced an …

Consumption trends and monetary policy
10 months ago

Consumption trends and monetary policy

Hindustan Times  

Consumption is the mainstay of India’s aggregate demand, constituting around 60% of its Gross Domestic Product. Average monthly per capita consumption expenditure was ₹3,773 in rural India and ₹6,459 in urban India in 2022-23 as against ₹1,431 in rural India and ₹2,629 in urban India in 2011-12. At a broad category level, non-food expenditure has grown at a much higher …

Consumption survey report inspired by polls: Congress
10 months, 1 week ago

Consumption survey report inspired by polls: Congress

The Hindu  

The Congress on Tuesday described the Household Consumption Expenditure report of the National Sample Survey Office as “election-inspired survey” and questioned the different estimates of poverty given by different agencies in the past one year. Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, in a post on X, accused the Modi government of coming out with “an election inspired survey after asleep at the …

Central bank work on lowering prices in delicate balance
10 months, 2 weeks ago

Central bank work on lowering prices in delicate balance

New Indian Express  

The Reserve Bank of India appears to be in its final leg of bringing inflation to heel. Though headline inflation is showing steady signs of easing, the central bank’s six-member Monetary Policy Committee is steadfast on retaining repo rate at 6.5 percent as any “premature move may undermine the success achieved so far”. As we navigate the ‘last mile’ of …

Food concerns in inflation data
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Food concerns in inflation data

Hindustan Times  

Retail inflation, as measured by Consumer Price Index, stood at 5.1% in January 2024, according to data released by the National Statistical Office on Monday. Some analysts have noted that high-frequency food price data for February suggests that the headline inflation might not change much this month either. However, the lower-than-expected relief in food inflation has only added more weight …

RBI’s battles with inflation
11 months ago

RBI’s battles with inflation

Hindustan Times  

That the Monetary Policy Committee would not change policy rates or its stance in its February meeting was widely expected. One, Reserve Bank of India seems to believe, perhaps rightly, that the monetary tightening unleashed by it in the last two years — the policy rate has been increased by 250 basis points — has not hurt growth. Despite core …

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