India’s 2025-26 budget should aim to engineer an economic transformation
Live MintWhile annual budgets are routine affairs in advanced economies, they hold special significance in emerging markets, particularly in India. Against this backdrop, the 2025-26 budget must address three critical pillars that will shape India’s journey towards developed-nation status, each presenting unique challenges and opportunities that demand careful policy calibration. First, India would need to maintain an 8% growth rate in nominal per capita dollar terms to achieve ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047, a target that requires a sustained focus beyond short-term economic fluctuations. Yet, India’s production and exports are becoming increasingly specialized in capital-intensive industries, seemingly contradicting the basic yet powerful principle of ‘comparative advantage.’ According to this principle, a labour-abundant country must specialize and export goods in labour-intensive industries, and importantly also import goods which it can produce only at comparatively high ‘opportunity cost.’ The solution to this paradox would be essential to generate high-quality employment opportunities. Such a body could complement government efforts by providing independent forecasts of key macroeconomic variables and by monitoring fiscal developments, enhancing the credibility of India’s fiscal framework.