From recession to rate cuts: my six economic predictions for 2025
2 days, 15 hours ago

From recession to rate cuts: my six economic predictions for 2025

The Independent  

I usually feel queasy when writing predictions for the year ahead. After all, the internet is forever and if you get it wrong there’s always someone to post a link on social media in a year’s time with the aggressive, but unoriginal, line: “This you?” But if economic forecasters, with their supercomputers, spreadsheets and master degrees from fancy institutions, can end up looking daft, how bad could it really get for me? That means two consecutive three-month quarters of negative economic growth; 2024 Q3 is already sitting at a big fat zero – so one more downward revision to that figure and we’re halfway there. America’s president-elect has trumpeted his intentions to impose universal tariffs of up to 20 per cent on imports, but reports are already emerging that he is rethinking his approach. Universal tariffs that punish other countries sound good to a would-be strongman, but they’ll also hit the US economy and, crucially, fuel inflation.

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History of this topic

UK economy faces threat of ‘stagflation’ after bumpy 2024
1 week, 1 day ago

UK economy faces threat of ‘stagflation’ after bumpy 2024

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. With the economy stalling, the watchword for 2025 is …

Why inflation will matter more in 2025: Explained
1 week, 4 days ago

Why inflation will matter more in 2025: Explained

The Hindu  

The story so far: It has been what one may call, a bittersweet year for the economy, with a sweet first half, when growth surprised everyone, including the government. Top government functionaries have been making noises since late November about the need for RBI to cut rates, with some suggesting it should ignore volatile food prices and prioritise growth and …

ANDREW NEIL: Trump in. Reform rising. And humiliation for Macron, Scholz and Trudeau. Why 2025 will see the collapse of the Left... and nowhere more than Britain
1 week, 5 days ago

ANDREW NEIL: Trump in. Reform rising. And humiliation for Macron, Scholz and Trudeau. Why 2025 will see the collapse of the Left... and nowhere more than Britain

Daily Mail  

There are, alas, precious few signs that 2025 will be a great year for any of us, which is a pity given 2024 was hardly one to write home about. Indeed there's every chance she'll make matters worse by resorting to even more tax rises in 2025, either in her Spring Statement scheduled for March 26 or her second Budget …

Are you worried about Britain’s economy in 2025? Join The Independent Debate
2 weeks, 1 day ago

Are you worried about Britain’s economy in 2025? Join The Independent Debate

The Independent  

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox Get our free View from Westminster email Get our free View from Westminster email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Britain’s economy is a growing concern as businesses prepare for 2025 …

Starmer and Reeves must be clear about the sacrifices needed to achieve econmic growth
2 weeks, 2 days ago

Starmer and Reeves must be clear about the sacrifices needed to achieve econmic growth

The Independent  

No amount of political tinsel or rhetorical baubles can disguise the grim reality that the British economy is flatlining. Equally plainly, the downbeat mood struck by Labour ministers following the general election, with their talk of a crisis in the public finances, cannot have helped matters; and if the latest surveys are anything to go by, Ms Reeves’s Budget measures …

UK interest rates to fall more slowly than expected after Budget – OECD
1 month ago

UK interest rates to fall more slowly than expected after Budget – OECD

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy UK interest rates will fall …

UK economic growth upgraded this year amid ‘temporary boost’ from spending
2 months, 1 week ago

UK economic growth upgraded this year amid ‘temporary boost’ from spending

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The UK economy is set …

Inflation set to stay above 2% for next four years, says OBR
2 months, 1 week ago

Inflation set to stay above 2% for next four years, says OBR

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy UK inflation is set to …

UK economic growth forecasts downgraded for next two years – economists
2 months, 2 weeks ago

UK economic growth forecasts downgraded for next two years – economists

The Independent  

Get the free Morning Headlines email for news from our reporters across the world Sign up to our free Morning Headlines email Sign up to our free Morning Headlines email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. EY Item Club’s latest quarterly economic forecast also suggested that caution by Bank of …

Does the drop in inflation mean things are going to get better?
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Does the drop in inflation mean things are going to get better?

The Independent  

Inflation has fallen once more, which, given that the country isn’t also obviously heading for recession, is good news. It takes some of the pressure off her, because wages are going up in real terms, and the reduction in inflation means that the Bank of England will feel more relaxed about reducing interest rates in the coming months – a …

Inflation steady – but chances of another rate cut are slim
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Inflation steady – but chances of another rate cut are slim

The Independent  

Let’s start with the good news: August’s inflation number came in unchanged at 2.2 per cent. While that is higher than the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, it is in line with City forecasts and beneath the 2.4 per cent the Bank itself had predicted at this stage. One thing to watch is the cost of services – …

UK economic outlook brighter but growth held back by ‘uncertainties’, says BCC
4 months ago

UK economic outlook brighter but growth held back by ‘uncertainties’, says BCC

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Britain’s economy is set to …

UK economy grows 0.6% between April and June as it recovers from recession
4 months, 3 weeks ago

UK economy grows 0.6% between April and June as it recovers from recession

Associated Press  

LONDON — Britain’s economy continued its recovery from recession at the end of last year, with its GDP increasing by 0.6% between April and June, official figures showed Thursday. “The U.K. economy has now grown strongly for two quarters, following the weakness we saw in the second half of last year,” said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the …

UK inflation stays at 2% target in June, leaving rate cut on a 'knife edge'
5 months, 3 weeks ago

UK inflation stays at 2% target in June, leaving rate cut on a 'knife edge'

Hindustan Times  

Inflation in the U.K. held steady at the Bank of England's target rate of 2% in the year to June, official figures showed Wednesday, in a development that could be enough for policymakers to cut borrowing costs next month. Grocery price inflation fell to its lowest level since September 2021 in a further sign of easing cost pressures, ahead of …

UK finally sees growth in economy during May
5 months, 4 weeks ago

UK finally sees growth in economy during May

China Daily  

Buses cross Waterloo Bridge with the City of London financial district seen behind, in London, Britain, March 5, 2024. The United Kingdom economy bounced back in May, showing signs of growth after a stagnant April and marking a continuation of the country's recovery from last year's recession. The Office for National Statistics, or ONS, reported a 0.4 percent increase in …

Inflation drops to Bank of England’s 2% target for first time in almost three years
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Inflation drops to Bank of England’s 2% target for first time in almost three years

The Independent  

Get the free Morning Headlines email for news from our reporters across the world Sign up to our free Morning Headlines email Sign up to our free Morning Headlines email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Inflation has fallen back to the 2 per cent target …

UK growth outlook brighter as consumer spending set to rebound, says CBI
7 months ago

UK growth outlook brighter as consumer spending set to rebound, says CBI

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. It’s encouraging to see that the outlook for the …

UK inflation predicted to drop close to Bank of England’s 2% target
7 months, 2 weeks ago

UK inflation predicted to drop close to Bank of England’s 2% target

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ …

UK no longer in recession after economy grows 0.6% in last quarter
7 months, 4 weeks ago

UK no longer in recession after economy grows 0.6% in last quarter

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. open image in gallery Jeremy Hunt said the economy …

The economy climbs out of recession – but, hold on, there may be a catch…
7 months, 4 weeks ago

The economy climbs out of recession – but, hold on, there may be a catch…

The Independent  

“Wow,” was the reaction of one economist as the UK officially exited last year’s recession at a speed no one had really expected. “The economy looks to have turned a corner, leaving recession firmly behind it,” said Investec’s Ellie Henderson. Which brings us to the real sting in the tail from this – and there’s always one: the City immediately …

UK economy exits recession after 0.6% growth in latest quarter
7 months, 4 weeks ago

UK economy exits recession after 0.6% growth in latest quarter

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: “After …

U.K. exits recession with better-than-expected 0.6% GDP growth
7 months, 4 weeks ago

U.K. exits recession with better-than-expected 0.6% GDP growth

The Hindu  

The data will be welcome news for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak who said the economy had “turned a corner” Britain's economy grew by the most in nearly three years in the first quarter of 2024, ending the shallow recession it entered in the second half of last year and delivering a boost to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of an …

British economy rebounds strongly in first quarter of the year, ending ‘technical recession’
7 months, 4 weeks ago

British economy rebounds strongly in first quarter of the year, ending ‘technical recession’

Associated Press  

LONDON — The British economy bounced back strongly in the first three months of the year, bringing to an end to what economists termed a “technical recession”, official figures showed Friday. The Bank of England, like the U.S. Fed and other central banks around the world, raised interest rates aggressively in late 2021 from near zero to counter price rises …

Bank of England edges closer to rate cut, possibly in June, as it predicts below-target inflation
7 months, 4 weeks ago

Bank of England edges closer to rate cut, possibly in June, as it predicts below-target inflation

Associated Press  

LONDON — The Bank of England maintained its key U.K. interest rate at a 16-year high of 5.25% though it gave a broad hint that a reduction could be on the cards as soon as June as inflation is forecast to fall below target. I’m optimistic that things are moving in the right direction.” Bailey indicated that the financial markets …

Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan
9 months ago

Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan

Hindustan Times  

US recession may have just been delayed to 2025, as per a recent note from JPMorgan's trading desk that highlighted the strength seen in ISM manufacturing activity in March that jumped over 50 for the first time since September 2022 which represents an expansion in manufacturing activity. The data ended a 16-month decline in US factory activity amid a solid …

UK economy went into shallow recession in 2023: Official data
9 months, 1 week ago

UK economy went into shallow recession in 2023: Official data

Live Mint  

Britain's economy entered a shallow recession last year, official figures confirmed on Thursday, leaving Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with a challenge to reassure voters that the economy is safe with him before an election expected later this year. "The weak starting point for GDP this year means calendar-year growth in 2024 is likely to be limited to less than 1%," …

UK did go into recession at the end of 2023, according to new ONS figures
9 months, 1 week ago

UK did go into recession at the end of 2023, according to new ONS figures

The Independent  

Get the free Morning Headlines email for news from our reporters across the world Sign up to our free Morning Headlines email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Responding to Office for National Statistics gross domestic product quarterly …

Inflation drops to two-year low in boost for rate cut hopes
9 months, 2 weeks ago

Inflation drops to two-year low in boost for rate cut hopes

The Telegraph  

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the fall in inflation signalled the Government’s plan for the economy was working and paved the way for future tax cuts. He rebuffed talk of a backbench plot to oust him that could derail his economic plans, telling the BBC: “What’s important is the future of our country, and people’s financial security and the peace of …

UK recession live: Reeves says Britain trapped in cycle of ‘decline’ as Sunak’s economy pledge ‘in tatters’
10 months, 3 weeks ago

UK recession live: Reeves says Britain trapped in cycle of ‘decline’ as Sunak’s economy pledge ‘in tatters’

The Independent  

✕ Close Hunt insists plan to bring inflation down is working despite 4 per cent increase For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like …

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as economy takes center stage in runup to general election
10 months, 3 weeks ago

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as economy takes center stage in runup to general election

Associated Press  

LONDON — The British economy fell into recession at the end of 2023 for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, as output shrank more than anticipated in the final three months of the year, official figures showed Thursday. The quarterly decline followed a 0.1% fall in the previous three-month period and highlights how the economy has …

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as output shrank more than expected in the fourth quarter
10 months, 3 weeks ago

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as output shrank more than expected in the fourth quarter

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The British economy fell into …

UK economy enters recession in second half of 2023 after shrinking 0.30 per cent
10 months, 3 weeks ago

UK economy enters recession in second half of 2023 after shrinking 0.30 per cent

India TV News  

Britain's economy slipped into a recession during the latter half of 2023, contracting by a more significant-than-anticipated 0.3 per cent in the three months leading up to December. The 0.3 per cent contraction in Britain's economy from October to December came after a 0.1 per cent decline between July and September. The Office for National Statistics reported a 0.1 per …

UK economy slips into recession, official data shows
10 months, 3 weeks ago

UK economy slips into recession, official data shows

Al Jazeera  

Britain’s gross domestic product shrank by 0.3 percent in the last three months of 2023, after contracting 0.1 percent in the third quarter. The Office for National Statistics said in a statement on Thursday that Britain’s gross domestic product shrank by 0.3 percent in the last three months of 2023, after contracting 0.1 percent in the third quarter. “The chancellor …

Will 2024 finally be a happy new year for the Australian economy?
1 year ago

Will 2024 finally be a happy new year for the Australian economy?

ABC  

When we said "happy new year" last week, for the first time in quite a while it may actually turn out to be true, at least in an economic sense. That kind of forecast has traders on the financial markets fully pricing in a Reserve Bank rate cut by September this year, on hopes that inflation will be close to …

UK economy at risk of recession after surprise third quarter decline
1 year ago

UK economy at risk of recession after surprise third quarter decline

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. “The broader picture, though, remains one of an economy …

Congressional Budget Office projects lower inflation and higher unemployment into 2025
1 year ago

Congressional Budget Office projects lower inflation and higher unemployment into 2025

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The Congressional Budget Office said Friday it expects inflation to nearly hit the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate in 2024, as overall growth is expected to slow and unemployment is expected to rise into 2025, according to updated economic projections for the next two years. The office’s Current View of the Economy from 2023 to 2025 report estimates …

Interest rates may need to rise again, warns Bank of England
1 year ago

Interest rates may need to rise again, warns Bank of England

The Telegraph  

Policymakers pushed back against any assumption of an imminent fall in the Bank’s base rate, warning that pay and services inflation – two key indicators of price pressures – “remained elevated”. The MPC said: “Inflation persistence remained higher than in other major advanced economies, possibly reflecting less favourable supply-side developments and stronger second-round effects in the UK.” Britain’s inflation rate, …

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says
1 year, 1 month ago

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says

LA Times  

A crane lifts a shipping container at an automated container port in Tianjin, China. The global economy, which has proved surprisingly resilient this year, is expected to falter next year under the strain of wars, still-elevated inflation and continued high interest rates. China’s “consumption growth will likely remain subdued due to increased precautionary savings, gloomier prospects for employment creation and …

Britain faces recession risk in election year, warns Bank of England
1 year, 2 months ago

Britain faces recession risk in election year, warns Bank of England

The Telegraph  

The Bank’s latest projection for next year fell from a previous forecast of 0.5pc, while it also warned that annual growth will remain below 1pc for the next four years – down from 2.75pc in the decade before the financial crisis. Despite the weaker outlook for jobs and growth, Mr Bailey said it was “much too early to be thinking …

UK economy in ‘horrible bind’ as recession looms, say experts
1 year, 2 months ago

UK economy in ‘horrible bind’ as recession looms, say experts

The Independent  

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox Get our free View from Westminster email Get our free View from Westminster email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The IFS said there was little room for the tax cuts wanted by Tory MPs …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 2 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

Britain faces years of stagnation because of high interest rates, economists warn
1 year, 5 months ago

Britain faces years of stagnation because of high interest rates, economists warn

The Telegraph  

Britain is facing a prolonged economic slump caused by higher interest rates, economists have warned, with the battle against inflation set to weigh on growth for years to come. In its latest quarterly update, the group said the economy is set to grow by 0.8pc next year, less than half its previous prediction of 1.9pc. Martin Beck, chief economic adviser …

Why the Bank of England has put Britain on course for recession
1 year, 6 months ago

Why the Bank of England has put Britain on course for recession

The Telegraph  

GDP grew by an underwhelming 0.1pc in the three months to April. “It is increasingly difficult to see how the UK avoids a recession as part of the process of bringing inflation down,” he says, adding that this “large rate increase will probably be seen in retrospect as an important milestone towards that recession”. “Raising interest rates will do little …

UK ‘will fall into recession’ following bond market chaos
1 year, 7 months ago

UK ‘will fall into recession’ following bond market chaos

The Telegraph  

Britain will fall into recession by the end of this year or early next year, a top City investment chief has predicted, following the bond market turmoil. Luke Hickmore, investment director at asset manager Abrdn, said the "real surprise" of rising core inflation in Britain's economy would force the Bank of England into action on interest rates. Mr Hickmore told …

UK economy to avoid recession but inflation still a worry, IMF says
1 year, 7 months ago

UK economy to avoid recession but inflation still a worry, IMF says

Associated Press  

LONDON — The British economy will avoid falling into recession this year, according to upgraded growth forecasts Tuesday from the International Monetary Fund. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a press briefing in London that the latest assessment reflects “favorably” on the U.K. in comparison to other countries in the Group of Seven leading industrial nations. Despite the more …

UK economy is no longer to fall into a recession in 2023, says IMF
1 year, 7 months ago

UK economy is no longer to fall into a recession in 2023, says IMF

Firstpost  

Britain’s economy is no longer will fall into a recession this year, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday, adding that it upgraded forecasts published last month and warned that the outlook remains subdued. “The improved outlook reflected the unexpected resilience of demand, helped in part by faster than usual pay growth, higher government spending and improved business confidence,” it …

British economy will take a smaller hit in 2023 than previously anticipated, says IMF
1 year, 8 months ago

British economy will take a smaller hit in 2023 than previously anticipated, says IMF

Firstpost  

Britain is no longer the only Group of Seven economy set for a fall in GDP this year as Germany too is now expected to shrink by 0.1%, the IMF global forecasts indicated. After narrowly avoiding recession in 2022, Britain’s economy has shown some signs of resilience in early 2023 London: Britain is expected to take a smaller economic hit …

UK Treasury chief predicts no recession in Britain this year
1 year, 9 months ago

UK Treasury chief predicts no recession in Britain this year

Associated Press  

LONDON — The U.K. is likely to avoid a recession this year, Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt said Wednesday, adding a bit of surprise to what had been billed as a boring budget meant to restore confidence and stability in the nation’s finances. An improving global economic picture, combined with government plans to stimulate growth, mean the British economy won’t slip …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 10 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

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