Vignettes of a Janus-faced economy
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Vignettes of a Janus-faced economy

The Hindu  

Riddled with contradictions, the Indian economy neither offers conclusive evidence of a stellar performance nor of a collapse. ‘Shining India’ Apart from GDP growth, a number of high frequency indicators are used to buttress the argument of the economy moving to a higher growth trajectory. Passenger car sales, domestic air passenger traffic, increase in demat accounts, UPI transactions and the sale of high-end mobile phones and luxury homes are indicators often used to highlight the outcomes of sustained growth. The dual nature of the Indian economy emerges when we examine another set of indicators alongside much-acclaimed growth performance. The extent of India’s slippages in achieving SDG targets would expose claims of the growth and size of the economy.

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History of this topic

India's Growth Outlook: A Beacon of Stability Despite Temporary Slowdown
2 months ago

India's Growth Outlook: A Beacon of Stability Despite Temporary Slowdown

Deccan Chronicle  

India's growth outlook remains steady despite a temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25. The country's aggregate demand is expected to shrug off the slowdown due to the pick-up in festival demand and consumer confidence. Domestic manufacturing and services PMI have shown signs of improvement, while rural demand is expected to get a boost from the improved …

Concern over ‘unscientific projection’ of GDP rate as nation’s prime growth indicator
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Concern over ‘unscientific projection’ of GDP rate as nation’s prime growth indicator

The Hindu  

A talk on ‘Tall claims and bleak realities - features of the contemporary Indian economy’ by Kerala State Planning Board member R. Ramkumar on July 26 expressed concern over the unscientific projection of gross domestic product rates as the nation’s prime growth indicator when the per capita Income was continuing at a very low rate. Presenting his view points at …

Wrong to assess economic activity on GDP alone: Finance Ministry
1 year, 3 months ago

Wrong to assess economic activity on GDP alone: Finance Ministry

The Hindu  

The Finance Ministry on September 15 scotched aspersions cast by “certain sections” on the credibility of Indian GDP data, which showed a 7.8% uptick in the first quarter of this year, stressing that Indian GDP data is not seasonally adjusted and is finalised three years later so “it is wrong to look at the underlying economic activity based on GDP …

An uneven rebound: The Hindu Editorial on the economy
1 year, 3 months ago

An uneven rebound: The Hindu Editorial on the economy

The Hindu  

India’s economy, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product as well as the Gross Value Added, grew 7.8% in the first quarter of the year. But the months ahead could prove to be more challenging with global headwinds that have hit goods exports and manufacturing already, combining with domestic pressures from the renewed spurt in inflation and the likelihood of …

ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES | Is the Indian economy booming in the 76th year of independence?
1 year, 3 months ago

ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES | Is the Indian economy booming in the 76th year of independence?

The Hindu  

Published : Aug 24, 2023 11:00 IST - 6 MINS READ On the completion of 76 years since Indian Independence, a wide range of “informed” opinions from government spokespersons, non-government analysts, and large sections of the domestic and foreign media, enthusiastically or grudgingly declared that, as an economy, India is doing very well. This bounce back from the 5.8 per …

The issue is not about India’s GDP, but its JDP
1 year, 4 months ago

The issue is not about India’s GDP, but its JDP

The Hindu  

Participating in the debate on the motion of no-confidence in Parliament last week, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman waxed eloquent about India’s Gross Domestic Product growing in double digits, the Indian economy being the world’s fastest, and also highlighted glowing reports by foreign institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and Morgan Stanley. Economist-politician Subramanian Swamy too has weighed in …

Indian Economy Expected To Grow 6.7% In 2024, Country Remains A Bright Spot: UN
1 year, 7 months ago

Indian Economy Expected To Grow 6.7% In 2024, Country Remains A Bright Spot: UN

News 18  

India’s economy is expected to grow by 6.7 per cent in the calendar year 2024, supported by resilient domestic demand, according to a UN report which said higher interest rates and weaker external demand will continue to weigh on investment and exports this year for the country. The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2023 released on Tuesday said …

India's GDP Growth: Economists Must Not Go by Face Value & Assess Data Robustly
1 year, 9 months ago

India's GDP Growth: Economists Must Not Go by Face Value & Assess Data Robustly

The Quint  

As argued before, while reviewing the macro-elements and components of growth in any statistical interpretation exercise, it’s difficult to get the full picture one needs. For example, keeping aside the base effect, the fact that private consumption demand is still woefully low, indicates how much of the low-middle income and middle-income class in India is ‘consuming less’ and their demand …

India at a crossroads: Reduce the risks of economic concentration
1 year, 10 months ago

India at a crossroads: Reduce the risks of economic concentration

Live Mint  

India is poised to become the world’s most important country in the medium term. First, India has moved to an economic model where a few ‘national champions’—effectively large private oligopolistic conglomerates—control significant parts of the old economy. ‘Make in India’ was intended to strengthen the economy’s tradable side by fostering the production of goods for export, not just for the …

Explained | Is the economy driving with the brakes on?
1 year, 11 months ago

Explained | Is the economy driving with the brakes on?

The Hindu  

The story so far: At this time last December, India’s economy was on the cusp of a fledgling recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, though the Omicron variant posed fresh speed bumps for the rebound. As JP Morgan managing director and India chief economist Sajjid Chinoy explained at a CII economic policy summit last week, 2022 was expected to see a …

What the GDP numbers say
2 years ago

What the GDP numbers say

Hindustan Times  

September quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers, which were released on November 30, are in perfect sync with the Reserve Bank of India ’s projection of 6.3%. If inflation continues to moderate — most forecasters, including RBI, believe that it will — and there is a sincere, even if gradual step towards fiscal consolidation in the forthcoming Budget, India will continue …

Indian Economy Resilient But Sensitive To Global Headwinds, On Way To Post 7% Growth In FY23: RBI
2 years, 1 month ago

Indian Economy Resilient But Sensitive To Global Headwinds, On Way To Post 7% Growth In FY23: RBI

News 18  

India’s Q2 GDP Growth Forecast: The Reserve Bank of India on Friday said the Indian economy is resilient but also “sensitive to formidable global headwinds”. The central bank pegs the country’s GDP for the July-September 2022 quarter between 6.1 per cent and 6.3 per cent based on economic prediction models and high-frequency indicators, like IIP, PMI, core sector data and …

India’s economy is on a strong wicket
2 years, 3 months ago

India’s economy is on a strong wicket

Hindustan Times  

The global economy has taken a turn for the worse in the last three months. As the summer fades and the northern hemisphere inches towards winter, India appears relatively better placed than its regional and global peers, in terms of sustaining growth and managing inflation. This represents a break from the past, when rising global food prices spilled over and …

India's Q1FY23 GDP Growth Number to be Posted Today, Estimates Range 13-16.2%
2 years, 3 months ago

India's Q1FY23 GDP Growth Number to be Posted Today, Estimates Range 13-16.2%

News 18  

Even as gross domestic product data for the April-June 2022 quarter is due for release on Wednesday, analysts have a wide range of growth forecasts from 13 per cent to 16.2 per cent. Rating agency Icra expects India’s GDP to grow 13 per cent in Q1FY23, State Bank of India sees a 15.7 per cent growth, and the RBI forecasts …

Why India’s economy remains stable as West heads towards economic recession
2 years, 4 months ago

Why India’s economy remains stable as West heads towards economic recession

Firstpost  

By early recognition for the need to undertake supply-side measures and maximising the bang for the taxpayer buck on the demand side, India has been able to insulate itself in this time of great economic volatility globally The US, EU and a large part of the Western world heading decisively towards an economic recession, has puzzled several economists as to …

Is India’s ‘economic recovery’ a mere illusion?
2 years, 6 months ago

Is India’s ‘economic recovery’ a mere illusion?

The Hindu  

Published : Jun 12, 2022 18:00 IST Illusions arise when the mind confuses the apparent with reality. When the National Statistical Office released the latest estimates of national income on May 31, indicating that the Indian economy grew at 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, those favourably disposed to the Narendra Modi government immediately asserted that the economy was in recovery …

India on cusp of major economic recovery: Niti Aayog VC
2 years, 8 months ago

India on cusp of major economic recovery: Niti Aayog VC

Hindustan Times  

India is on the cusp of a major economic recovery and talks of possible stagflation are "overhyped" as a strong economic foundation is being laid with the reforms carried out by the government over the last seven years, Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Sunday. "Given all the reforms that we have done in the last seven years, …

India’s true growth trajectory will be revealed next year
3 years ago

India’s true growth trajectory will be revealed next year

Live Mint  

The covid-19 pandemic dealt a severe blow to the Indian economy. Bright Spots Despite the uncertainties regarding the future course of the pandemic, the International Monetary Fund sees favourable short-term growth prospects for India. In a similar vein, the World Bank, in its Global Economic Prospects report published in June 2021, projected India’s economy to grow at 8.3% and 7.5% …

Is India's economy back on track? Here's what to expect from Q2 GDP numbers
3 years ago

Is India's economy back on track? Here's what to expect from Q2 GDP numbers

India Today  

India’s economy witnessed a sharp recovery after the second Covid-19 wave battered growth earlier in the year. In the first quarter of FY22, the country’s GDP growth accelerated to a record 20.1 per cent on the back of improvement in the pandemic situation, aided by rising vaccination and reopening of the economy. Read | India’s GDP grows at over 20% …

India's economy shows signs of recovery as restrictions ease, says Moody's Investors Service
3 years, 3 months ago

India's economy shows signs of recovery as restrictions ease, says Moody's Investors Service

Firstpost  

In its August update to ‘Global Macro Outlook 2021-22’, Moody’s retained India’s growth forecast for the 2021 calendar year at 9.6 percent and seven percent for 2022 New Delhi: Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday said the economic activity in India is picking up with the gradual easing of COVID restrictions and there could be further upside to growth as economies …

Raghav's Take: Why Stocks Are at Lifetime Highs When Economy Is at Its Weakest?
3 years, 5 months ago

Raghav's Take: Why Stocks Are at Lifetime Highs When Economy Is at Its Weakest?

The Quint  

While there are and always will be several complex intersections to explain sky-high stock markets, I would zero in on a few critical and core factors. Indian stock markets, too, have been buoyed by this unrelenting inflow of dollars, shoving forex reserves to well above USD 600 billion. But India is also host to a unique and accelerating phenomenon that …

India Must Bridge the Last-mile Gap on FTAs for an Economic Take-off
3 years, 6 months ago

India Must Bridge the Last-mile Gap on FTAs for an Economic Take-off

News 18  

The Central Hall of Parliament broke into rapturous applause. Delivering the Nani Palkhivala Memorial Lecture last year, Tata Sons chairman N Chandrasekaran hit the bullseye in noting, “There is a massive risk aversion within the system, which has led to an ‘undesirable equilibrium’ where it is safer to avoid or delay decisions.” Alas, hardly any official has ever been sacked …

India growth outlook trimmed, more downgrades seen likely
3 years, 7 months ago

India growth outlook trimmed, more downgrades seen likely

Live Mint  

The record-setting COVID-19 wave in India has not had much impact so far on economic growth forecasts, with economists polled by Reuters cutting their buoyant outlook only slightly over the past few weeks, though most said further downgrades could be coming. Now that's close to the lower end of market expectations, which ranges up to double-digit growth," said Prakash Sakpal, …

Evidence of Normalisation of India’s Economic Activity, Says IMF Chief Economist
3 years, 8 months ago

Evidence of Normalisation of India’s Economic Activity, Says IMF Chief Economist

News 18  

There is evidence of normalization of economic activities in India, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath has said ahead of the annual spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank here. On Tuesday, the IMF projected an impressive 12.5 percent growth rate for India in 2021, stronger than that of China, the only major economy to have a …

India to Witness Double-digit Growth in Next Fiscal: Report
4 years ago

India to Witness Double-digit Growth in Next Fiscal: Report

News 18  

New Delhi: Having gone through a rough patch on account of the coronavirus pandemic, the Indian economy is expected to record a double-digit growth at 10 per cent in 2021-22, according to a report. Stronger car sales, rising production of finished steel and diesel consumption, and higher goods and services tax revenue collections indicate that the economy has bounced back …

GDP shrank 8.6% in Q2 pushing economy into recession: RBI
4 years, 1 month ago

GDP shrank 8.6% in Q2 pushing economy into recession: RBI

The Hindu  

India’s economy rebounded sharply in the wake of the reopening from lockdowns, slowing the pace of its contraction to 8.6% in the second quarter, a ‘nowcast’ in the RBI’s monthly bulletin showed on Wednesday. An Economic Activity Index, which tracks real-time data from 27 monthly indicators, showed the economy had rebounded sharply from May/June, with industry normalising faster than contact-intensive …

The fallacy of equating growth with the pursuit of higher GDP
4 years, 1 month ago

The fallacy of equating growth with the pursuit of higher GDP

Live Mint  

There’s been much hand-wringing in India about the possibility of Bangladesh overtaking India on per capita gross domestic product. But the real message from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook is not about growth, but the underlying dynamics that may have propelled a rise in Bangladesh’s GDP per head. If one were to go back in the Modi tenure, …

India’s growth story has never seemed so endangered
4 years, 3 months ago

India’s growth story has never seemed so endangered

Live Mint  

We all knew it would be bad, but no one could have predicted just how bad. Supply and credit links, which had been largely cash-based in the informal sector, among others, remained broken even after high-denomination currency came back into circulation, and some small businesses and poorer households—we will likely never know how many—never recovered to their level of well-being …

Today's top business news: Shares rise on gains in auto stocks, McKinsey warns India risks decade of stagnation, US banks tighten lending standards, and more
4 years, 3 months ago

Today's top business news: Shares rise on gains in auto stocks, McKinsey warns India risks decade of stagnation, US banks tighten lending standards, and more

The Hindu  

The benchmark stock indices have lost opening gains to trade in the red. PTI reports: "Auto stocks were in demand on Wednesday, rising up to 7 per cent, after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said two-wheelers are neither a luxury nor sin goods and so merit a GST rate revision. PTI reports: "The country’s gross domestic product may have contracted by …

Early signs of India economic recovery wane as coronavirus surges
4 years, 4 months ago

Early signs of India economic recovery wane as coronavirus surges

Live Mint  

India’s economic activity monitors are beginning to flatline just months after showing signs of returning to life. Latest data from Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google showed mobility suffered in recent weeks after notching up an increase since May, when Asia’s third-largest economy began exiting a nationwide lockdown to contain the coronavirus outbreak. More indicators The Nomura India Business Resumption …

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