The job market slowdown is getting hard to ignore
Live MintIt’s easy to look at the rise in the unemployment rate over the past six months and attribute it to a growing labour force, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. argued over the weekend, or a normal rebalancing of the economy that will help control inflation, as I suggested last week was one possibility. For people who are unemployed or not in the workforce but looking to find a job, the labour market can be best described as balanced, with a bias toward worsening rather than strengthening. Additionally, in the monthly jobs report, the number of people who have been unemployed for at least five weeks saw double-digit percentage increases in September and October on a year-over-year basis, gains that in the past 25 years have meant the economy was already in recession. While this may be the right way to think about the data — and I expect the economy to skirt a recession in 2024 — it’s reasonable to expect conditions to weaken from here given Fed Chair Jerome Powell believes monetary policy is “probably significantly restrictive.” Any further weakening in the hiring rate or increase in the layoff rate would shift labour market dynamics from bifurcated or balanced to one where a majority of workers begin to grow concerned about holding onto or getting a job.