Bastille Day attack: The horror continues, but so does our resolve
Following the attacks in Nice, we should be under no illusions: we will never completely eradicate terrorism. But while the terrorists' coup in Nice and the marked increase in terrorist attacks should give us all cause for concern, we should not confuse "an increase in terrorist attacks committed by Islamic State" with a statement like "Islamic State is winning". Indeed, if we use Mao Zedong's 3-phased guerrilla war as a model for a successful fight we can see that the last year has been disastrous for IS - a year which has seen it regress from "Phase 3" back to "Phase 2" - the use of intimidation tactics like terrorist attacks to weaken the enemy's resolve. Furthermore, when one observes that the attacks in the holy city of Medina have drawn the ire of prominent Saudi Salafists or when one considers the empirical observation that the use of indiscriminate violence is ultimately counter-productive to a group's political aims then, all things put together, these attacks appear less as a sign of strength and more as an indication that IS has a reduced threat profile than the one it had just a few years ago. The terrorist attacks however, will likely continue as IS reverts to "Phase 2" tactics.
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