How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The economy's direction has confounded the Fed's policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million Americans were suddenly thrown out of work. Fed officials have made clear they're willing to tip the economy into a recession if necessary to defeat high inflation, and most economists believe them. Economists monitor changes in the interest payments, or yields, on different bonds for a recession signal known as an “inverted yield curve.” This occurs when the yield on the 10-year Treasury falls below the yield on a short-term Treasury, like the three-month T-bill. Recessions are officially declared by the obscure-sounding National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of economists whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” The committee considers trends in hiring.

Economy Inflation Unemployment Treasury Spending Fed Rate Businesses Months Many Economists Economists Yield Recession High Inflation  inflation  recession  unemployment  months  rate  spending  businesses  economy  know  economists  yield

History of this topic

What the latest numbers tell us about the economy before the election
1 month, 3 weeks ago

What the latest numbers tell us about the economy before the election

NPR  

What the latest numbers tell us about the economy before the election This year's presidential campaign has focused heavily on economic issues. NPR's chief economics correspondent, Scott Horsley, joins us. SIMON: Scott, The Economist just had a cover story calling the U.S. economy the envy of the world, but a lot of Americans demonstrably don't seem to feel that way. …

U.S. Economy Grew At Healthy 2.8% Pace Last Quarter On Strength Of Consumer Spending
1 month, 3 weeks ago

U.S. Economy Grew At Healthy 2.8% Pace Last Quarter On Strength Of Consumer Spending

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy grew at a healthy 2.8% annual rate from July through September, with consumers helping drive growth despite the weight of still-high interest rates. Wednesday’s report from the Commerce Department said the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — slowed slightly from its 3% growth rate in …

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely
4 months, 1 week ago

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely

Live Mint  

Not long ago recessions seemed to strike America roughly once a decade. But because the world economy, asset markets and America’s politics are all fragile, it may yet have nasty and unpredictable consequences. An American recession would land another blow on vulnerable parts of the global economy by curbing demand for their exports. But after over a decade of cheap …

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

Why the recession still isn’t here
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Why the recession still isn’t here

Live Mint  

Steady hiring continues to fuel consumer spending and, in turn, an economic expansion unlike any the U.S. has seen. “Last year, at the first sign of higher rates, people ran for the hills, so it seems like the consumer is more battle-hardened now," he said. “If you keep interest rates at this level, there will be folks who just can’t …

US growth slowed sharply last quarter to 1.6% pace, reflecting an economy pressured by high rates
7 months, 4 weeks ago

US growth slowed sharply last quarter to 1.6% pace, reflecting an economy pressured by high rates

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The nation’s economy slowed sharply last quarter to a 1.6% annual pace in the face of high interest rates, but consumers — the main driver of economic growth — kept spending at a solid pace. Gregory Daco, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm EY, noted that the underlying economy looks solid, though it’s slowing from last …

Will the US unemployment rate continue at historic lows?
8 months, 2 weeks ago

Will the US unemployment rate continue at historic lows?

Al Jazeera  

US job growth has continued at a steady clip in the months since the COVID-19 pandemic, but experts are looking for warning signs. All eyes will be on Friday’s US unemployment numbers to see how many jobs were added in March and whether the unemployment rate continues to stay in its historically low range or if it is time for …

US economy grew solid 3.2% in fourth quarter, a slight downgrade from government's initial estimate
9 months, 3 weeks ago

US economy grew solid 3.2% in fourth quarter, a slight downgrade from government's initial estimate

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The U.S. economy grew at …

Recession has struck some of the world’s top economies. The US keeps defying expectations
10 months, 1 week ago

Recession has struck some of the world’s top economies. The US keeps defying expectations

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — As some of the world’s biggest economies stumble into recession, the United States keeps chugging along. Yet in the United States, the economy motored ahead in last year’s fourth quarter for a sixth straight quarter of growth. It’s blown past many predictions coming into last year that a recession seemed inevitable because of high interest rates meant …

US economy grew by 3.3% over the past year - ending fears of recession and sending the S&P and Dow up
10 months, 4 weeks ago

US economy grew by 3.3% over the past year - ending fears of recession and sending the S&P and Dow up

Daily Mail  

Consumers and businesses have continued to spend despite high interest rates The US economy grew much faster than expected in the final three months of last year, trouncing expectations as consumers and businesses continued to spend. The US economy grew much faster than expected in the final three months of last year, trouncing expectations as consumers and businesses continued to …

Why did economists go wrong by forecasting a US recession this year?
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Why did economists go wrong by forecasting a US recession this year?

Live Mint  

Last year at this time, 85% of economists in a poll predicted a recession in the US this year—and that was an optimistic take, compared to the 100% probability of a recession forecast two months earlier. As US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week: “So many economists were saying there’s no way for inflation to get back to normal …

A ‘soft landing’ or a recession? How each one might affect America’s households and businesses
1 year ago

A ‘soft landing’ or a recession? How each one might affect America’s households and businesses

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The solid hiring revealed in Friday’s jobs report for November, along with a raft of other recent economic data, is boosting hopes that the U.S. economy will achieve a “soft landing” next year rather than a widely feared recession. A so-called soft landing would occur if the economy slowed enough to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve’s …

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?
1 year ago

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?

Hindustan Times  

Wall Street is buzzing with concerns as top banking executives, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and Jane Fraser of Citigroup, testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Soaring inflation has plagued the nation, decreasing from 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in October 2023 but still exceeding the Fed's …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 2 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

US economy unexpectedly accelerated to a 2.4% growth rate in April-June quarter despite Fed hikes
1 year, 4 months ago

US economy unexpectedly accelerated to a 2.4% growth rate in April-June quarter despite Fed hikes

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy surprisingly accelerated to a 2.4% annual growth rate from April through June, showing continued resilience in the face of steadily higher interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve’s 16-month-long fight to bring down inflation. Consumer spending, the heart of the nation’s economy, was also solid last quarter, though it slowed to a 1.6% annual rate …

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 5 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined …

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?
1 year, 6 months ago

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?

ABC  

Stephen Hawking, the scientific genius who solved some of the deepest secrets of our universe, summed up the fundamental problems facing modern economists. Rates and jobs part ways Not so long ago, in time before we were all sent home, the "natural rate" of unemployment was considered to be around 5 per cent. Inflation didn't immediately take off after Australia's …

What is a recession? Are we experiencing one now?
1 year, 7 months ago

What is a recession? Are we experiencing one now?

ABC  

What is a recession? The documents showed that, late last year, RBA staff were discussing the likelihood of Australia's economy falling into recession this year and next if the bank kept rapidly lifting interest rates. The "Sahm Rule" tells us when the economy's in recession, and why stimulus payments should start flowing immediately, writes Gareth Hutchens. And as the RBA …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The government’s report Thursday that the economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate last quarter signaled that one of the most-anticipated recessions in recent U.S. history has yet to arrive. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted

LA Times  

Over the last year, the Federal Reserve has raised its key short-term rate eight times, causing many kinds of consumer and business loans, including auto loans, to become more expensive. A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a …

US economy slowed but still grew at 2.9% rate last quarter
1 year, 10 months ago

US economy slowed but still grew at 2.9% rate last quarter

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.9% annual pace from October through December, ending 2022 with momentum despite the pressure of high interest rates and widespread fears of a looming recession. “From the Fed’s perspective, a desired slowdown in the economy will be welcome news.” Consumer spending, which fuels about 70% of the entire economy, rose at a …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 10 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The second consecutive quarter of economic growth that the government reported Thursday underscored that the nation isn’t in a recession despite high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fastest pace of interest rate hikes in four decades. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, …

U.S. economy slowed but still grew at 2.9% rate last quarter
1 year, 10 months ago

U.S. economy slowed but still grew at 2.9% rate last quarter

LA Times  

An employee works in the battery assembly hall at the BMW Spartanburg plant in Greer, S.C., on Oct. 19. The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.9% annual pace from October through December, ending 2022 with momentum despite the pressure of high interest rates and widespread fears of a looming recession. Thursday’s estimate from the Commerce Department showed that the nation’s …

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism
1 year, 11 months ago

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism

Live Mint  

Real-time indicators and surveys point to the health of consumer spending and business investment. Make UK’s survey this week showed that manufacturers’ investment plans have held up in recent months, with executives planning to pump money into new products and energy efficiency. What’s really noticeable at the moment is confidence is as bad as the beginning of lockdown, yet the …

Can US avoid a recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises
1 year, 11 months ago

Can US avoid a recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — For months, the outlook for the U.S. economy has been a mostly bleak one: Inflation hitting a four-decade high, consumer spending weakening, interest rates surging. These trends are raising expectations that the Fed might manage to engineer an often-elusive “soft landing,” whereby the economy slows but doesn’t go into reverse and unemployment rate rises slightly but stays low. …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

Biden sees economy avoiding recession, but risks remain
2 years ago

Biden sees economy avoiding recession, but risks remain

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden assured Americans on Friday that the U.S. economy is chugging along in the holiday season, but the very strength of a new jobs report showed that high inflation remains a recession threat. “I’ve supported paid sick leave for a long time,” said the president, a staunch labor union supporter. “I’m going to continue that fight …

US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
2 years, 1 month ago

US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate from July through September, snapping two straight quarters of contraction and overcoming high inflation and interest rates just as voting begins in midterm elections in which the economy’s health has emerged as a paramount issue. Stronger exports and consumer spending, backed by a healthy job market, helped restore growth …

EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?
2 years, 1 month ago

EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the July-September quarter, the government reported Thursday, underscoring that the United States is not in a recession despite distressingly high inflation and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March …

Don’t expect the bounce-back in the US economy to quiet recession calls
2 years, 1 month ago

Don’t expect the bounce-back in the US economy to quiet recession calls

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Don’t expect the bounce-back in the US economy in the third quarter to quiet the chorus of recession calls. “That’s why I’ve tried to wave people off of this whole question about whether there was a recession or has been a recession in the first half because inflation is bad enough,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic …

Is the US economy in a recession and taking the world with it?
2 years, 2 months ago

Is the US economy in a recession and taking the world with it?

Al Jazeera  

The US is facing rising recession fears as the Federal Reserve remains bullish in fighting high inflation. The United States is facing rising recession fears as the Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, remains bullish in fighting high inflation and officials increasingly talk about the need to impose some economic pain to get price pressures under control, several economists told …

US economy drops at 0.6% annual rate from April through June
2 years, 2 months ago

US economy drops at 0.6% annual rate from April through June

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Battered by surging consumer prices and rising interest rates, the U.S. economy shrank at a 0.6% annual rate from April through June, the government announced Thursday, unchanged from its previous second-quarter estimate. But the Fed has raised interest rates five times this year — most recently Sept. 21 — to rein in consumer prices, which were up 8.3% …

US economy shrank from April through June, second time in a row
2 years, 2 months ago

US economy shrank from April through June, second time in a row

Al Jazeera  

The United States economy continues to send mixed signals with some believing it is on the brink of a recession while others point to a stronger than usual jobs market. Battered by surging consumer prices and rising interest rates, the United States economy shrank at a 0.6 percent annual rate from April through June, the government has announced, unchanged from …

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?
2 years, 3 months ago

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve sent a sobering message Wednesday after it announced its latest big interest rate hike: It plans to keep raising rates as long as it takes to conquer the worst inflation bout in decades — even at the risk of causing a recession in the process. Given the strength of the job market — the unemployment …

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession
2 years, 3 months ago

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The last time the Federal Reserve faced inflation as high as it is now, in the early 1980s, it jacked up interest rates to double-digit levels — and in the process caused a deep recession and sharply higher unemployment. “We think we can avoid the very high social costs that Paul Volcker and the Fed had to bring …

Slowdown or not? How the US job market walks a tight rope
2 years, 3 months ago

Slowdown or not? How the US job market walks a tight rope

Firstpost  

The unemployment rate fell to a historically low 3.5 per cent as the 22 million jobs lost due to COVID-19 returned. Job creation, on the other hand, is expected to have slowed sharply, falling to 300,000 — almost half of July’s number Washington: The number of “Help Wanted” signs may have decreased across the United States in August, but the …

As recession fears grow, strong US hiring is likely slowing
2 years, 4 months ago

As recession fears grow, strong US hiring is likely slowing

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. “Overall conditions aren’t nearly as strong as what we …

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter
2 years, 4 months ago

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter

ABC  

The United States economy has unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declining, raising speculation the economy is on the cusp of a recession. Key points: Prices for groceries, petrol and other basics increased at the fastest pace since 1981 Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in …

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession. “The fact that the economy created 2.7 million payrolls in the first half of the year would seem to argue against an official recession call for now.” Still, …

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?
2 years, 4 months ago

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy has contracted for two straight quarters, intensifying fears that the nation is on the cusp of a recession — if not already in one — barely two years after the pandemic recession officially ended. While most economists — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell — have said they don’t think the economy is in recession, many …

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means
54 years, 11 months ago

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward, painful place. Here’s a look at the economic vital signs that are sending frustratingly mixed signals to policymakers, businesses and forecasters: ___ THE OVERALL ECONOMY As measured by the nation’s gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of output — the economy has looked positively sickly so far this year. …

US Economy Shrinks 0.9% In June 2022 Quarter, 2nd Straight Drop; Raises Fears Of Recession
2 years, 4 months ago

US Economy Shrinks 0.9% In June 2022 Quarter, 2nd Straight Drop; Raises Fears Of Recession

News 18  

The US economy contracted again in the second quarter amid aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve to combat high inflation, which could fan financial market fears that the economy was already in recession. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the United States defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic …

US not yet in recession and 4 other takeaways from the Fed
2 years, 4 months ago

US not yet in recession and 4 other takeaways from the Fed

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Jerome Powell delivered a tough message at the start of a news conference Wednesday: Inflation is way too high, and the Federal Reserve is laser-focused on taming it with higher borrowing costs. With the Fed’s benchmark interest rate now at a level that’s believed to neither stimulate nor restrain growth, Powell said the pace of rate hikes could …

US economy shrinks for a second quarter, fuelling recession fears
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy shrinks for a second quarter, fuelling recession fears

Al Jazeera  

The fall in US GDP comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, as Chair Jerome Powell says growth needs to slow. The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, raising chances of a recession, as decades-high inflation undercut consumer spending and Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes stymied business investment and housing demand. The report illustrates how …

What does a US recession mean for the global economy?
2 years, 4 months ago

What does a US recession mean for the global economy?

The Telegraph  

The United States has entered a recession after a surprise contraction during the second quarter of the year. It followed a 1.6pc annualised decline in the first quarter – marking two quarters of negative growth. That is a so-called technical recession, and almost anywhere in the world would likely be recorded as an official recession. The US works a little …

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy sending mixed signals: Here’s what it all means

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy is caught in an awkward, painful place. Here’s a look at the economic vital signs that are sending frustratingly mixed signals to policymakers, businesses and forecasters: ___ THE OVERALL ECONOMY As measured by the nation’s gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of output — the economy has looked positively sickly so far this year. …

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