In Electing Ishiba Shigeru, the LDP Opts for Change

The fifth time’s the charm for Ishiba Shigeru. “I will do my best to make Japan a safe and secure country again, a place where everyone can live with a smile.” Ishiba’s victory after falling short so many times before highlighted a sea change within the LDP. Ishiba wants to entirely eliminate the clause that foreswears “the right of belligerency” and pledges not to maintain “land, sea, and air forces.” Ishiba sees this as blatantly out of step with reality: “I believe that as long as this clause is in place, Japan’s security policies will never be aligned with reason,” he said in the December 2023 interview. “Japan’s security environment is worse than NATO countries’, so 2 percent of GDP may not be enough,” Ishiba pointed out. “We must redouble our emphasis on the fact that it is vital for this region that Japan and South Korea understand one another and cooperate.” Ultimately, Tobias Harris, a long-time analyst of Japanese politics, sees Ishiba as not a traditional conservative but “a political idealist, wanting ‘purer’ solutions that will not only ‘solve’ problems but will make Japan and the Japanese people better.” The big question now is what happens when Ishiba’s reformist bent meets the inertia of Japan’s – and the LDP’s – internal bureaucracy.