Some warning signs in India’s economic report card
4 years, 1 month ago

Some warning signs in India’s economic report card

Live Mint  

After a historic contraction in the July-ended quarter, when India’s gross domestic product declined 24% compared to the year-ago period, economists expect India’s economic contraction to be narrower in the Sep-ended quarter. 6 of 16 high-frequency economic indicators considered in Mint’s monthly macro tracker were in green, or above their five-year-average trend, as of October. Launched in October 2018, Mint’s macro tracker provides a monthly state-of-the-economy report based on trends in 16 high-frequency indicators across 4 segments: consumer economy, producer economy, external sector, and ease of living. But the two other indicators, available with a month’s lag--core infrastructure growth and non-food credit growth--remained in the red.

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History of this topic

India’s Industrial Output Hits 6-Month High at 5.2%
4 days, 18 hours ago

India’s Industrial Output Hits 6-Month High at 5.2%

Deccan Chronicle  

India's industrial output growth accelerated to a six-month high of 5.2 per cent year-on-year in November 2024 against the backdrop festive demand and pick-up in manufacturing sector. As per use-based classification, the data further showed that the capital goods segment growth accelerated to 9 per cent in November 2024 against a contraction of 1.1 per cent in the year-ago period. …

Mint Primer: Why consumer demand needs a quick revival
6 days, 7 hours ago

Mint Primer: Why consumer demand needs a quick revival

Live Mint  

In the second quarter of the current fiscal, manufacturing growth slowed to just 2.2% from 7% in the first quarter. This pulled down industry’s contribution to the gross domestic product growth significantly, causing overall economic growth to tank. In the second quarter, India’s GDP growth fell sharply to 5.4% as against 8.1% registered in the same period a year ago. …

Weakness in Indian economy persisted in November, shows Mint tracker
1 week, 2 days ago

Weakness in Indian economy persisted in November, shows Mint tracker

Live Mint  

The Indian economy's performance continued to display signs of weakness in November as was recorded in the previous month, showed the 16-high frequency indicators tracked by Mint in its monthly macro tracker. From the external sector, the trade balance continued to remain a pain point, while labour-intensive exports also proved to be a big drag on the segment as it …

India’s Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Gold Demand Soars
Top News
4 weeks, 1 day ago

India’s Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Gold Demand Soars

Live Mint  

-- India’s trade deficit expanded to a record high in November, as the nation’s import bill ballooned, particularly due to a rise in gold shipments. The gap between exports and imports stood at $37.8 billion in November, trade ministry data showed Monday, much higher than the $23 billion deficit forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey. A widening trade deficit …

Mint Quick Edit | Car sales seem stuck in second gear
Trending News
1 month ago

Mint Quick Edit | Car sales seem stuck in second gear

Live Mint  

Close on the heels of a surprisingly weak gross domestic product growth reading, automobile sales data, seen as a an important indicator of economic activity in India, has spelt another round of disappointment. Retail sales of passenger vehicles in November fell 14% from a year earlier, according to data issued by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations on Monday. This …

Mint tracker: October sees slight deterioration in Indian economy’s performance
1 month, 1 week ago

Mint tracker: October sees slight deterioration in Indian economy’s performance

Live Mint  

The Indian economy's performance deteriorated in October compared to the previous month, with weakness in passenger vehicle sales and trade persisting and the inflation situation worsening, showed Mint macro tracker. The tracker provides a monthly comprehensive report on the state of the economy based on trends in 16 high-frequency indicators. Methodology note: While calculating the five-year average, data for some …

India’s current account deficit to remain manageable in FY25, Rupee to remain in pressure: Bank of Baroda
2 months ago

India’s current account deficit to remain manageable in FY25, Rupee to remain in pressure: Bank of Baroda

Live Mint  

New Delhi, November 15 : India's current account deficit will remain within a manageable range for both FY25 and FY26, largely due to muted oil prices that are expected to support the country's external financial position, projected a recent report by Bank of Baroda. Despite global market volatility, the report stated that steady oil prices at current levels are a …

Merchandise exports surge amid focus on key markets, countries
Trending News
2 months ago

Merchandise exports surge amid focus on key markets, countries

Hindustan Times  

India’s merchandise exports registered 17.25% growth to $39.20 billion in October over the same month last year, with non-petroleum exports aggregating a record $211.34 billion in the first seven months of current financial year despite global headwinds, commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal said, crediting a concerted policy push and Christmas demand for the growth. India’s services exports in October 2024 is …

India’s goods trade deficit widens to $27 billion in October
Trending News
2 months ago

India’s goods trade deficit widens to $27 billion in October

Live Mint  

New Delhi: India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a two-month high in October, driven by a rise in imports, data released by the commerce ministry on Thursday showed. The goods trade deficit—the difference between exports and imports—stood at $27.14 billion in October, up from $20.78 billion in September. The overall trade deficit, including both services and merchandise, fell to $10.12 …

Is the spike in India’s trade deficit a worry?
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Is the spike in India’s trade deficit a worry?

The Hindu  

The story so far: After a positive start to goods exports in the first quarter of 2024-25, there has been a blip in momentum. On the exports front, 18 of India’s top 30 segments recorded growth in July and 19 in August, but the big-ticket sectors like petroleum, and gems and jewellery, have tanked significantly. While gems and jewellery exports …

India’s industrial output grows 4.8% in July
4 months ago

India’s industrial output grows 4.8% in July

The Hindu  

India’s industrial output growth rose 4.8% in July, the second-slowest pace in the financial year 2024-25, from an upgraded 4.7% growth in June, even as mining and electricity growth slowed, and non-consumer durables’ production slipped a sharp 4.4%, marking the third contraction in four months. Manufacturing output growth picked up to 4.6% in July, from 3.2% in June, and was …

Two sides to India’s consumption story
11 months ago

Two sides to India’s consumption story

New Indian Express  

India’s so-called K-shaped economic growth has a new name – premiumisation. Earlier this year, the government released the first advance estimates of GDP growth in FY24 showing consumption growth at 4.4 percent -- the lowest in 20 years. The government’s efforts to promote local manufacturing by levying high taxes on imported goods have also resulted in higher prices for many …

A cloudy horizon: The Hindu Editorial on trade data
1 year ago

A cloudy horizon: The Hindu Editorial on trade data

The Hindu  

From a rare upward swing this October, India’s goods exports retreated into contraction last month, dipping 2.8% from 2022 levels to touch $33.9 billion. Imports dropped 4.33% to $54.5 billion, cooling the merchandise trade deficit to $20.6 billion, almost a third below October’s record high. August’s goods trade deficit was moderated by nearly three billion dollars, with the overall export-import …

Exports dipped again in November, but trade deficit eases 31% from record high
1 year ago

Exports dipped again in November, but trade deficit eases 31% from record high

The Hindu  

India’s goods exports slipped back into contraction to drop 2.83% in November to $33.9 billion, while imports fell by a sharper 4.33% to $54.48 billion. The trade deficit for November eased sharply beyond expectations to $20.58 billion from the all-time high of $29.91 billion recorded in October. Exports have been positive in November and higher than the overall exports of …

Deceptive signals: The Hindu Editorial on India’s October 2023 goods exports numbers
1 year, 1 month ago

Deceptive signals: The Hindu Editorial on India’s October 2023 goods exports numbers

The Hindu  

Last month, India’s goods exports recorded only their second uptick this financial year, with a 6.2% rise. Merchandise imports grew a sharper 12.3% over last October and nearly 21% over September’s tally to hit an all-time high of $65.03 billion. The Finance Ministry’s monthly economic review asserted that merchandise exports “surprised on the upside” with the highest growth in 11 …

India sees 6.2% rise in goods exports in October
1 year, 1 month ago

India sees 6.2% rise in goods exports in October

The Hindu  

India’s goods exports grew only for the second time in 2023-24 in October, albeit on a low base, rising 6.2% to $33.6 billion, but imports jumped to a record high of $65.03 billion, 12.3% over last year, fuelled by higher gold inflows. Consequently, India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened to an all-time high of $31.46 billion, eclipsing the previous record …

India’s goods trade deficit hits a 10-month high
1 year, 3 months ago

India’s goods trade deficit hits a 10-month high

The Hindu  

India’s foreign trade hit a fresh trough in August, with goods exports shrinking for the seventh successive month, services exports estimated to have dropped for the first time in well over a year, and the goods trade deficit hitting a 10-month high. The merchandise import bill for August dropped 5.23% year-on-year to $58.64 billion, but was 10.85% higher than July’s …

India’s goods exports dropped 22% to hit 8-month low in June
1 year, 6 months ago

India’s goods exports dropped 22% to hit 8-month low in June

The Hindu  

India’s goods exports plummeted 22.02% year-over-year in June to hit an eight-month low of $32.97 billion, while imports fell 17.5% to $53.1 billion, as per data from the Commerce Ministry. The goods trade deficit for June fell 8.8% from levels seen last June as well as this May, to $20.13 billion. This trend is likely to continue this year, with …

India’s economy signals resilience even as exports dim outlook
1 year, 8 months ago

India’s economy signals resilience even as exports dim outlook

Live Mint  

India’s economic activity stayed resilient in March though the weakening pace of exports and an increase in unemployment dimmed the outlook for the country that’s surpassing China as the most populous nation. Last week, India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said her government was making “enough efforts” to ensure the economy stays buoyant though she expressed concern over the OPEC output …

Merchandise exports down 9% in Feb
1 year, 9 months ago

Merchandise exports down 9% in Feb

Live Mint  

New Delhi: India’s merchandise exports declined by nearly 9% in February, the third contraction in the current fiscal, led by a persistent demand slowdown across major markets including the US and the European Union. “Amid a challenging external environment and tepid demand from key markets, engineering goods exports have seen a downward trend and recorded negative growth in seven out …

Exports fell 8.8% in February, but trade deficit also shrank over 7%
1 year, 9 months ago

Exports fell 8.8% in February, but trade deficit also shrank over 7%

The Hindu  

Tentative global demand pulled India’s goods exports down 8.8% in February to $33.9 billion, while imports fell 8.2% from a year ago to $51.31 billion, according to Commerce Ministry estimates released on Wednesday. The merchandise trade deficit during February 2023 fell 7% to $17.43 billion, slightly higher than January’s $16.56 billion deficit, which in turn was the lowest in at …

Industrial output growth moderates to 4.3% in December 2022
1 year, 11 months ago

Industrial output growth moderates to 4.3% in December 2022

The Hindu  

India’s industrial output growth moderated to 4.3% in December 2022 from 7.3% in November, despite mining and electricity production rising at around 10% for the second successive month as manufacturing growth faltered from 6.1% in November to just 2.6%. On the basis of end-use, four of six sub-sectors — primary goods, capital goods, infrastructure and construction goods, and consumer non-durables …

India’s buzzing economic activity belies fears of a slowdown
1 year, 11 months ago

India’s buzzing economic activity belies fears of a slowdown

Deccan Chronicle  

India’s economy picked up speed in December as business conditions improved, marking a rebound for the South Asian nation that had showed signs of a slowdown the preceding month. The needle indicating so-called animal spirits moved right after holding steady for five straight months — indicating stronger overall economic activity as 2022 drew to a close. The reading comes ahead …

Turning tide: On India’s goods exports
2 years ago

Turning tide: On India’s goods exports

The Hindu  

India’s goods exports rebounded from a nearly 17% dip in October to a mild 0.6% uptick in November. Their share in exports growth has been shrinking since June, with the contraction accelerating for many sectors from September to November — engineering goods that drove much of India’s record $422 billion goods exports in 2021-22, contracted 11.3% while textiles fell a …

Explained | Is the economy driving with the brakes on?
2 years ago

Explained | Is the economy driving with the brakes on?

The Hindu  

The story so far: At this time last December, India’s economy was on the cusp of a fledgling recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, though the Omicron variant posed fresh speed bumps for the rebound. As JP Morgan managing director and India chief economist Sajjid Chinoy explained at a CII economic policy summit last week, 2022 was expected to see a …

October exports drop 16.65%, deficit rises 50%
2 years, 1 month ago

October exports drop 16.65%, deficit rises 50%

The Hindu  

The global slowdown has begun to hit home, denting India’s goods exports by 16.65% in October compared to a year ago — the first contraction since February 2021 that dragged outbound shipments below $30 billion for the first time in 20 months. October’s deficit was about 4.7% higher than September 2022 and was the fourth successive month of an over …

Trade worries: The Hindu Editorial on the expanding trade and current account deficits
2 years, 5 months ago

Trade worries: The Hindu Editorial on the expanding trade and current account deficits

The Hindu  

July’s provisional trade data should trigger early warning signals among policymakers, as the first year-on-year contraction in exports in 17 months, albeit marginal, and a 44% jump in imports, sharply widened the trade deficit to a third successive monthly record. While the Commerce Ministry has sought to explain away the 0.8% slide in last month’s exports as largely being a …

India’s exports dips to lowest in nine months in November
3 years, 1 month ago

India’s exports dips to lowest in nine months in November

Live Mint  

India’s merchandise exports fell to the lowest level in nine months in November as supply bottlenecks and rising covid-19 cases in Europe cast a shadow on India’s outbound shipments. Preliminary data released by the commerce ministry showed merchandise exports hit $30 billion, while merchandise imports stood at $53 billion, leading to a trade deficit of $23 billion in November. Aditi …

The recovery toolkit: The Hindu Editorial on tax policy and economic recovery
3 years, 2 months ago

The recovery toolkit: The Hindu Editorial on tax policy and economic recovery

The Hindu  

The latest string of official numbers, including almost-record GST collections, healthy direct tax inflows, strong manufacturing and exports, provide some confidence that the economy has lurched back from the danger zone for the second time in less than a year owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. If September’s activity reflects pre-festive stocking, the actual festive spending may keep GST numbers propped …

Number Theory: The Indian economy’s two paths to recovery
3 years, 4 months ago

Number Theory: The Indian economy’s two paths to recovery

Hindustan Times  

June quarter GDP growth of 20.1% was slightly lower than expected estimates. “August saw a continuation of the Indian manufacturing sector recovery, but growth lost momentum as demand showed some signs of weakness due to the pandemic”, Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, the agency which conducts the PMI survey said in a press release. At 11.6 …

Economic recovery still dicey, key indicators remain dull in Nov
4 years ago

Economic recovery still dicey, key indicators remain dull in Nov

Live Mint  

The Indian economy remained in a slump in November as most high-frequency indicators failed to show any marked improvement. Nine out of a group of 16 such indicators considered in Mint’s monthly macro tracker remain in red, or below their five-year-average trend. Launched in October 2018, Mint’s macro tracker provides a monthly state-of-the-economy report based on trends in 16 high-frequency …

Factory output at eight-month high
4 years, 1 month ago

Factory output at eight-month high

Live Mint  

India’s factory output expanded for the second straight month in October, signalling the economy is gradually climbing back from disruptions related to the coronavirus pandemic. Positive signs Coming on the base of a 6.6% contraction in October 2019, the 3.6% growth in the IIP in October this year is decidedly modest, and warrants caution in the interpretation of the strength …

India's Exports Dip 5.12% in October Due Drop in Shipments, Trade Deficit Narrows to $8.71 Billion
4 years, 2 months ago

India's Exports Dip 5.12% in October Due Drop in Shipments, Trade Deficit Narrows to $8.71 Billion

News 18  

India's exports fell 5.12 per cent to $24.89 billion in October, after recording positive growth in September, on account of drop in shipments of petroleum products, gems and jewellery, leather and engineering goods, according to government data released on Friday. Imports also fell 11.53 per cent to $33.6 billion in October 2020. During April-October 2020, exports declined 19.02 per cent …

India's October Fuel Demand Marks First Year-on-year Gain in 8 Months Amid Economic Recovery
4 years, 2 months ago

India's October Fuel Demand Marks First Year-on-year Gain in 8 Months Amid Economic Recovery

News 18  

India’s fuel consumption in October registered its first year-on-year increase since February, as slowing coronavirus cases and increased mobility accelerated an economic recovery, data showed on Thursday. Consumption of refined fuels, a proxy for oil demand, rose 2.5% in October from the prior year to 17.78 million tonnes and nearly 15% higher from the previous month, data from the Petroleum …

India's virus-hit industrial output shrinks 16.6% in June
4 years, 5 months ago

India's virus-hit industrial output shrinks 16.6% in June

News 18  

NEW DELHI India’s industrial output fell 16.6% year-on-year in June, shrinking for the fourth month in a row, though the monthly measure indicated some recovery in the coronavirus-hit sector. Industrial activity has been hit hard in Asia’s third-largest economy after the government imposed lockdown restrictions in late March. Passenger vehicle production in July fell 29.4% from a year earlier, separate …

Covid-19 halts a nascent recovery in its tracks
4 years, 9 months ago

Covid-19 halts a nascent recovery in its tracks

Live Mint  

India’s economic report card showed some signs of improvement with five of the sixteen high-frequency indicators in green as of February, the latest edition of the Mint Macro Tracker shows. The Mint Macro Tracker, launched in October 2018, provides a monthly state-of-the-economy report based on trends in sixteen indicators across four segments: consumer economy, producer economy, external sector, and ease …

Early data hints green shoots in Indian economy. Has it bottomed out?
5 years ago

Early data hints green shoots in Indian economy. Has it bottomed out?

Hindustan Times  

Initial high-frequency indicators for December 2019 suggest some sort of revival in the Indian economy. Goods and Services Tax collections were above Rs 1 lakh crore for the second consecutive month in December. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy’s capex database shows that new investment announcements have posted a positive growth in the December quarter, the first since June 2018. The …

Softening Demand Drags Indian Factory Growth to Two-year Low in October: Report
5 years, 2 months ago

Softening Demand Drags Indian Factory Growth to Two-year Low in October: Report

News 18  

Bengaluru: India’s factory activity growth hit a two-year low in October as new orders and output rose at a slower pace, dragging business confidence to its weakest since early 2017, a survey showed on Friday, suggesting more policy easing is on the cards. “PMI data for October showed a continuation of manufacturing sector weakness in India, with sales growth softening …

Animal spirits suggest tame start for India’s economy in 2019
5 years, 10 months ago

Animal spirits suggest tame start for India’s economy in 2019

Live Mint  

India’s economy started the New Year still hungover from the sluggish showing in end-2018, stoking expectations for more monetary stimulus from the central bank. A set of indicators tracked by Bloomberg to measure “animal spirits” -- a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action -- showed weaker indicators outnumber stronger ones …

India's GDP growth likely slowed to 6.9% in December quarter, data to be out on Thursday
5 years, 10 months ago

India's GDP growth likely slowed to 6.9% in December quarter, data to be out on Thursday

Firstpost  

India’s economy likely grew at its slowest pace in over a year in the October-December quarter as weaker rural incomes and softer urban demand weighed on consumption, a Reuters poll showed Bengaluru: India’s economy likely grew at its slowest pace in over a year in the October-December quarter as weaker rural incomes and softer urban demand weighed on consumption, a …

India exports growth falls to 0.8% in November, trade deficit narrows to $16.7 billion
6 years, 1 month ago

India exports growth falls to 0.8% in November, trade deficit narrows to $16.7 billion

Live Mint  

New Delhi: Growth in India’s merchandise exports slumped to 0.8% in November from 17.86% in October, the result of an unfavourable base effect, as the trade deficit narrowed benefitting from a sharp fall in crude oil prices. Aditi Nayar, principal economist at Icra Ltd, said if crude oil prices remain relatively stable around current levels, the merchandise trade deficit is …

Festive spirit does little to revive animal spirits in India
6 years, 1 month ago

Festive spirit does little to revive animal spirits in India

Live Mint  

Mumbai: A banking liquidity crunch and weak business sentiment before state elections this year outweighed signs of a revival in consumer demand during India’s main festival season, keeping the outlook for the world’s fastest-growing major economy muted. An overall activity indicator measuring animal spirits—a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action—was …

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