India’s GDP growth estimated to decelerate to 6.3% in 2025, says Goldman Sachs; sees shallow RBI rate cut from Q1CY25
3 months, 3 weeks ago

India’s GDP growth estimated to decelerate to 6.3% in 2025, says Goldman Sachs; sees shallow RBI rate cut from Q1CY25

Live Mint  

India’s economic growth is expected to decelerate in 2025, said Goldman Sachs even as it believes that the economy will likely be insulated from global shocks emanating out of a potential trade war between US and China. Though India’s strong long-term structural growth story remains intact, we forecast GDP growth to decelerate to 6.3% YoY in CY25, on continued fiscal consolidation and slower credit growth on macro-prudential tightening by the RBI, said Goldman Sachs. Given macro-prudential tightness, retail loan growth may remain tepid even in the face of lower rates,” said Santanu Sengupta, Chief India economist at Goldman Sachs and his team in a report. This, along with lower sensitivity of Indian growth to global growth and lower beta to CNY, makes INR the most insulated currency in the region to global shocks, Goldman Sachs said, while forecasting USD/INR to depreciate modestly to 85.5 – 86 over the next 3-6 months, but to remain stable thereafter.

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