India to buck global slowdown, maintain pace of expansion: RBI officials
The HinduEven as the global economy is set to slow down or even enter a recession in 2023 as financial markets worldwide face heightened uncertainty, the Indian economy is steadily gathering momentum, Reserve Bank of India officials headed by deputy governor Michael D. Patra wrote in an article in the March RBI Bulletin. “Unlike the global economy, India would not slow down – it would maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23,” the officials wrote, adding: “We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds”. Stating that the currently available forecasts of India’s real GDP growth for 2023-24, including those of the RBI, settled between 6.0 and 6.5%, they stated: “But, as we wrote in last month’s edition of the State of the Economy, what if at least 50% of the ₹35,000 crore of tax relief proposed in the Union Budget is used by taxpayers for consumption and adds to private final consumption expenditure – a component of GDP?” “This is plausible because the proportion of an additional rupee of income that is spent on consumption by households in India is estimated at ₹0.54. And what if even a third of the additional allocation of ₹3.2 lakh crore budgeted for effective capital expenditure adds to gross fixed capital formation, another component of GDP?” India’s real GDP could go up from ₹159.7 lakh crore in 2022-23 to not just ₹169.7 lakh crore in 2023-24, as was currently being projected, but to ₹170.9 lakh crore, they surmised.